RIOT Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 42 trades in period
-15.78%
Last 3 Months Return
$4,755.61
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$5,646.76
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
10.8/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.8
30-Day Momentum
61
+13.5%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
2.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 64.0
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+50 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$5,646.76
Current Value
$4,755.61
Period P&L
$-891.19
Max Drawdown
-55.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
23 /
19
Best Trade
+3.90%
Worst Trade
-5.19%
Avg Trade Return
-0.36%
Avg Hold Time
16.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$382,700.42
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-891.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-891.19
Gross Return
-15.78%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.78%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $5,646.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:55pm ET | $27.33 | 206 | $5,629.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.49 | 206 | $5,455.91 | $5,472.74 |
$-174.07 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $27.63 | 198 | $5,469.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $26.28 | 198 | $5,204.43 | $5,207.42 |
$-265.32 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 11:25am ET | $26.96 | 193 | $5,203.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.56 | 193 | $4,933.08 | $4,937.20 |
$-270.22 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.64 | 208 | $4,917.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $22.70 | 208 | $4,722.64 | $4,742.72 |
$-194.48 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $23.72 | 199 | $4,719.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 2:00pm ET | $22.97 | 199 | $4,571.03 | $4,594.46 |
$-148.26 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:10pm ET | $22.01 | 208 | $4,578.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $21.32 | 208 | $4,434.56 | $4,450.94 |
$-143.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $21.75 | 204 | $4,437.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $22.25 | 204 | $4,539.00 | $4,552.94 |
+$102.00 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $21.05 | 216 | $4,546.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $20.30 | 216 | $4,383.72 | $4,389.86 |
$-163.08 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $20.00 | 219 | $4,379.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $20.44 | 219 | $4,477.45 | $4,487.34 |
+$97.48 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:20am ET | $19.70 | 227 | $4,471.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:15pm ET | $20.18 | 227 | $4,580.86 | $4,596.41 |
+$109.07 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $18.38 | 250 | $4,595.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 2:45pm ET | $18.78 | 250 | $4,694.97 | $4,696.39 |
+$99.98 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $18.34 | 256 | $4,696.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.06 | 256 | $4,879.36 | $4,879.43 |
+$183.04 (+3.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $21.60 | 225 | $4,861.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $22.18 | 225 | $4,991.62 | $5,009.93 |
+$130.50 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $24.45 | 204 | $4,987.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:10pm ET | $23.72 | 204 | $4,837.86 | $4,859.99 |
$-149.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $22.38 | 217 | $4,855.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $21.49 | 217 | $4,662.25 | $4,666.86 |
$-193.13 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 12:10pm ET | $21.06 | 221 | $4,654.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $20.33 | 221 | $4,491.83 | $4,504.42 |
$-162.43 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 12:25pm ET | $22.50 | 200 | $4,500.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.04 | 200 | $4,608.00 | $4,612.40 |
+$107.98 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.63 | 234 | $4,593.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $20.06 | 234 | $4,694.04 | $4,713.02 |
+$100.62 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $21.78 | 216 | $4,704.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $22.23 | 216 | $4,801.68 | $4,810.20 |
+$97.18 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $22.00 | 218 | $4,796.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.01 | 218 | $4,580.18 | $4,594.38 |
$-215.82 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $20.68 | 222 | $4,592.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $20.02 | 222 | $4,444.44 | $4,446.75 |
$-147.63 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $20.80 | 213 | $4,429.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $20.17 | 213 | $4,295.15 | $4,312.56 |
$-134.19 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $20.59 | 209 | $4,303.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $21.01 | 209 | $4,392.13 | $4,401.38 |
+$88.82 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $19.17 | 229 | $4,388.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $18.57 | 229 | $4,252.30 | $4,264.90 |
$-136.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $19.42 | 219 | $4,252.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $19.82 | 219 | $4,339.49 | $4,351.41 |
+$86.51 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $19.08 | 228 | $4,350.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $18.29 | 228 | $4,169.71 | $4,170.88 |
$-180.53 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:35am ET | $20.30 | 205 | $4,161.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $20.78 | 205 | $4,259.88 | $4,269.12 |
+$98.24 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 10:45am ET | $20.36 | 209 | $4,255.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 11:30am ET | $20.80 | 209 | $4,347.20 | $4,361.08 |
+$91.96 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 12:20pm ET | $21.34 | 204 | $4,354.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:00am ET | $20.68 | 204 | $4,219.74 | $4,226.44 |
$-134.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:20am ET | $21.58 | 195 | $4,208.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $20.91 | 195 | $4,077.45 | $4,095.79 |
$-130.65 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 1:00pm ET | $19.03 | 215 | $4,091.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.39 | 215 | $3,954.07 | $3,958.34 |
$-137.45 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $17.97 | 220 | $3,953.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 1:50pm ET | $18.41 | 220 | $4,050.20 | $4,055.14 |
+$96.80 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 2:25pm ET | $20.88 | 194 | $4,050.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $21.35 | 194 | $4,141.90 | $4,146.32 |
+$91.18 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $22.27 | 186 | $4,143.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $22.78 | 186 | $4,237.08 | $4,240.25 |
+$93.93 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $21.67 | 195 | $4,226.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 2:35pm ET | $22.13 | 195 | $4,314.38 | $4,328.00 |
+$87.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 2:55pm ET | $21.13 | 204 | $4,310.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $21.66 | 204 | $4,418.11 | $4,435.79 |
+$107.79 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 11:00am ET | $20.53 | 216 | $4,434.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $20.98 | 216 | $4,531.68 | $4,532.99 |
+$97.20 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $19.93 | 227 | $4,525.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $20.40 | 227 | $4,629.67 | $4,637.41 |
+$104.42 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $21.37 | 217 | $4,637.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $21.89 | 217 | $4,749.05 | $4,749.16 |
+$111.75 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $23.34 | 203 | $4,739.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $23.85 | 203 | $4,841.55 | $4,851.68 |
+$102.52 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 3:50pm ET | $24.00 | 202 | $4,846.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.48 | 202 | $4,944.96 | $4,949.65 |
+$97.97 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 11:20am ET | $24.97 | 198 | $4,944.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.99 | 198 | $4,750.02 | $4,755.61 |
$-194.04 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,755.61
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,244.39
Total Return:
-52.44%