RIVN Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 31 trades in period
-15.09%
Last 3 Months Return
$4,286.19
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$5,047.82
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality
10.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 10.0
30-Day Momentum
12
-3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8
Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$5,047.82
Current Value
$4,286.19
Period P&L
$-761.61
Max Drawdown
-60.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
17 /
14
Best Trade
+3.53%
Worst Trade
-11.92%
Avg Trade Return
-0.44%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$288,730.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-761.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$-761.61
Gross Return
-15.09%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.09%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $5,047.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $14.90 | 338 | $5,036.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 2:50pm ET | $14.42 | 338 | $4,873.96 | $4,885.54 |
$-162.24 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.10 | 323 | $4,878.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $15.44 | 323 | $4,988.73 | $4,995.36 |
+$109.82 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 1:40pm ET | $16.67 | 299 | $4,984.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.01 | 299 | $5,087.48 | $5,098.49 |
+$103.13 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.10 | 298 | $5,095.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $17.55 | 298 | $5,228.41 | $5,231.10 |
+$132.61 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $18.97 | 275 | $5,216.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $19.39 | 275 | $5,332.25 | $5,346.57 |
+$115.47 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $17.40 | 307 | $5,340.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $16.85 | 307 | $5,174.48 | $5,180.79 |
$-165.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $16.52 | 313 | $5,170.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.90 | 313 | $5,288.14 | $5,298.17 |
+$117.38 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $18.63 | 284 | $5,290.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $18.03 | 284 | $5,121.94 | $5,129.19 |
$-168.98 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 2:15pm ET | $17.17 | 298 | $5,115.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.51 | 298 | $5,217.98 | $5,232.00 |
+$102.81 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $18.44 | 283 | $5,218.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $17.84 | 283 | $5,050.13 | $5,063.61 |
$-168.39 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $16.61 | 304 | $5,049.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.09 | 304 | $5,196.88 | $5,211.05 |
+$147.44 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $17.41 | 299 | $5,204.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.76 | 299 | $5,310.24 | $5,317.20 |
+$106.14 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.69 | 318 | $5,308.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.17 | 318 | $5,142.06 | $5,151.17 |
$-166.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $16.57 | 310 | $5,135.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.01 | 310 | $4,964.65 | $4,980.67 |
$-170.50 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $18.63 | 284 | $5,290.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.41 | 284 | $4,660.44 | $4,350.19 |
$-630.48 (-11.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.20 | 268 | $4,341.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.63 | 268 | $4,188.84 | $4,197.43 |
$-152.76 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 11:30am ET | $15.63 | 268 | $4,189.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 11:25am ET | $15.99 | 268 | $4,285.32 | $4,293.72 |
+$96.29 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $16.06 | 267 | $4,286.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $16.42 | 267 | $4,384.14 | $4,391.17 |
+$97.45 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $16.34 | 268 | $4,380.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $15.85 | 268 | $4,246.46 | $4,257.17 |
$-134.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $14.84 | 286 | $4,242.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $15.14 | 286 | $4,328.61 | $4,342.97 |
+$85.80 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.66 | 277 | $4,339.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $16.04 | 277 | $4,443.08 | $4,446.85 |
+$103.88 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $16.94 | 262 | $4,439.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $16.38 | 262 | $4,290.25 | $4,297.51 |
$-149.34 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $16.62 | 258 | $4,289.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.11 | 258 | $4,156.38 | $4,164.74 |
$-132.77 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 11:20am ET | $16.23 | 256 | $4,154.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.71 | 256 | $4,021.76 | $4,031.59 |
$-133.15 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.48 | 260 | $4,025.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.03 | 260 | $4,167.80 | $4,173.53 |
+$141.93 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.73 | 265 | $4,167.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $16.09 | 265 | $4,263.85 | $4,270.25 |
+$96.72 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $16.20 | 263 | $4,261.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.64 | 263 | $4,113.35 | $4,121.68 |
$-148.57 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.39 | 251 | $4,113.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.83 | 251 | $3,973.30 | $3,981.10 |
$-140.58 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $15.51 | 256 | $3,969.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET | $15.82 | 256 | $4,051.20 | $4,063.02 |
+$81.92 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:35pm ET | $15.23 | 266 | $4,049.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.63 | 266 | $4,157.58 | $4,170.75 |
+$107.73 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $15.18 | 274 | $4,159.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.60 | 274 | $4,274.76 | $4,286.19 |
+$115.44 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,286.19
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,713.81
Total Return:
-57.14%