SHIBUSD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 34 trades in period
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 22, 2024 | $97.66 | 1,002 | $17,758.90 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
| 2 | Jan 12, 2026 | $98.03 | 1,728 | $8,280.59 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 2 times. Total capital invested: $30,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,973.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:40pm ET | $0.00000567 | 1,249,753,798 | $7,086.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $0.00000549 | 1,249,753,798 | $6,861.15 | $6,826.28 |
$-259.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000522 | 1,307,716,518 | $6,826.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.00000547 | 1,307,716,518 | $7,153.21 | $7,118.26 |
+$291.98 (+4.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:15pm ET | $0.00000572 | 1,244,451,159 | $7,118.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:05am ET | $0.00000584 | 1,244,451,159 | $7,267.59 | $7,231.63 |
+$113.37 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:20am ET | $0.00000593 | 1,219,499,178 | $7,231.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:20am ET | $0.00000607 | 1,219,499,178 | $7,402.36 | $7,365.78 |
+$134.14 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:05am ET | $0.00000602 | 1,223,550,671 | $7,365.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $0.00000615 | 1,223,550,671 | $7,524.84 | $7,487.61 |
+$121.84 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $0.00000623 | 1,201,863,579 | $7,487.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 5:35pm ET | $0.00000637 | 1,201,863,579 | $7,655.87 | $7,618.01 |
+$130.40 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 6:15pm ET | $0.00000631 | 1,207,291,964 | $7,618.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:10am ET | $0.00000608 | 1,207,291,964 | $7,340.34 | $7,302.94 |
$-315.07 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:55am ET | $0.00000608 | 1,201,141,328 | $7,302.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 7:15am ET | $0.00000621 | 1,201,141,328 | $7,459.09 | $7,422.18 |
+$119.24 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 8:10am ET | $0.00000618 | 1,201,000,417 | $7,422.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000632 | 1,201,000,417 | $7,590.32 | $7,552.79 |
+$130.61 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $0.00000633 | 1,193,173,993 | $7,552.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 11:35am ET | $0.00000613 | 1,193,173,993 | $7,314.16 | $7,276.99 |
$-275.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 11:40am ET | $0.00000612 | 1,189,050,524 | $7,276.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 5:30am ET | $0.00000591 | 1,189,050,524 | $7,027.29 | $6,991.53 |
$-285.46 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 8:50am ET | $0.00000597 | 1,171,110,201 | $6,991.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $0.00000609 | 1,171,110,201 | $7,132.06 | $7,096.75 |
+$105.22 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000605 | 1,173,016,885 | $7,096.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:35pm ET | $0.00000618 | 1,173,016,885 | $7,249.24 | $7,213.38 |
+$116.63 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 5:25pm ET | $0.00000612 | 1,178,656,758 | $7,213.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $0.00000606 | 1,178,656,758 | $7,142.66 | $7,106.77 |
$-106.61 (-1.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
19.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $0.00000602 | 1,180,526,578 | $7,106.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 2:55am ET | $0.00000583 | 1,180,526,578 | $6,882.47 | $6,882.47 |
$-259.27 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 4:45am ET | $0.00000581 | 1,184,590,353 | $6,882.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:00am ET | $0.00000593 | 1,184,590,353 | $7,024.62 | $7,024.62 |
+$107.38 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $0.00000650 | 1,080,710,769 | $7,024.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $0.00000630 | 1,080,710,769 | $6,808.48 | $6,808.48 |
$-250.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:30am ET | $0.00000616 | 1,105,272,727 | $6,808.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 3:05am ET | $0.00000630 | 1,105,272,727 | $6,963.22 | $6,963.22 |
+$120.31 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $0.00000636 | 1,094,845,912 | $6,963.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2026 12:30am ET | $0.00000650 | 1,094,845,912 | $7,116.50 | $7,116.50 |
+$118.08 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2026 4:00pm ET | $0.00000639 | 1,113,693,271 | $7,116.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 3:50am ET | $0.00000619 | 1,113,693,271 | $6,893.76 | $6,893.76 |
$-257.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.00000617 | 1,117,303,079 | $6,893.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $0.00000596 | 1,117,303,079 | $6,659.13 | $6,659.13 |
$-268.52 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:25pm ET | $0.00000591 | 1,126,756,345 | $6,659.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 1:05am ET | $0.00000603 | 1,126,756,345 | $6,794.34 | $6,794.34 |
+$101.58 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $0.00000609 | 1,115,655,172 | $6,794.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:20pm ET | $0.00000590 | 1,115,655,172 | $6,582.37 | $6,582.37 |
$-245.42 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:15am ET | $0.00000624 | 1,054,866,987 | $6,582.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 12:00pm ET | $0.00000637 | 1,054,866,987 | $6,719.50 | $6,719.50 |
+$103.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET | $0.00000628 | 1,069,984,076 | $6,719.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 5:45am ET | $0.00000608 | 1,069,984,076 | $6,505.50 | $6,505.50 |
$-247.06 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $0.00000600 | 1,084,250,000 | $6,505.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $0.00000581 | 1,084,250,000 | $6,299.49 | $6,299.49 |
$-238.02 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000579 | 1,087,994,819 | $6,299.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET | $0.00000560 | 1,087,994,819 | $6,092.77 | $6,092.77 |
$-237.70 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:55am ET | $0.00000552 | 1,103,762,681 | $6,092.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 9:00am ET | $0.00000564 | 1,103,762,681 | $6,225.22 | $6,225.22 |
+$101.66 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $0.00000573 | 1,086,425,829 | $6,225.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 8:50pm ET | $0.00000585 | 1,086,425,829 | $6,355.59 | $6,355.59 |
+$98.92 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 11:50am ET | $0.00000556 | 1,143,091,727 | $6,355.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 8:10pm ET | $0.00000568 | 1,143,091,727 | $6,492.76 | $6,492.76 |
+$105.05 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 3:10am ET | $0.00000551 | 1,178,359,347 | $6,492.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $0.00000563 | 1,178,359,347 | $6,634.16 | $6,634.16 |
+$108.59 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $0.00000559 | 1,186,790,698 | $6,634.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:25pm ET | $0.00000542 | 1,186,790,698 | $6,432.41 | $6,432.41 |
$-234.42 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 12:35am ET | $0.00000541 | 1,188,985,213 | $6,432.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000552 | 1,188,985,213 | $6,563.20 | $6,563.20 |
+$98.30 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 4:55am ET | $0.00000559 | 1,174,096,601 | $6,563.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $0.00000571 | 1,174,096,601 | $6,704.09 | $6,704.09 |
+$107.72 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held |
+ 2 refunds ($20,000)