SMCI Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 37 trades in period
-11.60%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,505.60
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$8,490.05
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
11.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.3
30-Day Momentum
46
+9.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.8
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+35 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,490.05
Current Value
$7,505.60
Period P&L
$-984.47
Max Drawdown
-63.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
20 /
17
Best Trade
+5.05%
Worst Trade
-6.07%
Avg Trade Return
-0.28%
Avg Hold Time
1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$509,187.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-984.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$-984.47
Gross Return
-11.60%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.60%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,490.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 12:30pm ET | $32.18 | 263 | $8,463.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.01 | 263 | $8,156.94 | $8,183.65 |
$-306.40 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $30.08 | 272 | $8,181.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 2:00pm ET | $28.48 | 272 | $7,746.53 | $7,748.43 |
$-435.23 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 2:30pm ET | $29.67 | 261 | $7,745.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.88 | 261 | $7,275.38 | $7,278.63 |
$-469.80 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $28.03 | 259 | $7,259.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:20pm ET | $27.14 | 259 | $7,029.26 | $7,048.12 |
$-230.51 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $27.34 | 257 | $7,027.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.48 | 257 | $6,805.36 | $6,825.82 |
$-222.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:15am ET | $27.03 | 252 | $6,812.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 3:05pm ET | $27.61 | 252 | $6,957.72 | $6,970.72 |
+$144.90 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $28.59 | 243 | $6,948.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $27.60 | 243 | $6,708.01 | $6,730.15 |
$-240.57 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $27.75 | 242 | $6,714.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $26.89 | 242 | $6,507.38 | $6,523.24 |
$-206.91 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 10:50am ET | $25.59 | 254 | $6,499.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:45pm ET | $24.77 | 254 | $6,292.85 | $6,316.23 |
$-207.01 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $24.17 | 261 | $6,308.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $24.68 | 261 | $6,441.48 | $6,449.34 |
+$133.11 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $31.18 | 206 | $6,423.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 10:45am ET | $31.92 | 206 | $6,576.55 | $6,602.81 |
+$153.47 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $31.25 | 211 | $6,592.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $31.92 | 211 | $6,735.12 | $6,745.23 |
+$142.42 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 12:35pm ET | $31.18 | 216 | $6,734.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 2:35pm ET | $30.22 | 216 | $6,526.44 | $6,536.79 |
$-208.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $27.20 | 240 | $6,528.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $28.01 | 240 | $6,722.40 | $6,730.21 |
+$193.42 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 11:15am ET | $26.77 | 251 | $6,719.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:50pm ET | $27.38 | 251 | $6,872.71 | $6,883.67 |
+$153.46 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 3:30pm ET | $27.85 | 247 | $6,877.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.51 | 247 | $7,041.97 | $7,047.80 |
+$164.13 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 11:10am ET | $28.55 | 246 | $7,022.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.61 | 246 | $7,284.06 | $7,309.79 |
+$261.99 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $31.29 | 233 | $7,290.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.90 | 233 | $6,965.54 | $6,984.75 |
$-325.04 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.97 | 233 | $6,983.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 11:25am ET | $30.64 | 233 | $7,139.12 | $7,140.86 |
+$156.11 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $32.08 | 222 | $7,121.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 2:30pm ET | $31.04 | 222 | $6,890.88 | $6,909.98 |
$-230.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $37.58 | 183 | $6,876.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.35 | 183 | $7,018.05 | $7,051.69 |
+$141.71 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $39.81 | 177 | $7,046.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $38.01 | 177 | $6,726.89 | $6,732.36 |
$-319.33 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:30am ET | $37.09 | 181 | $6,713.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $38.11 | 181 | $6,897.91 | $6,916.93 |
+$184.57 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $36.80 | 187 | $6,881.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $35.64 | 187 | $6,664.42 | $6,700.31 |
$-216.62 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $36.80 | 187 | $6,881.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.03 | 187 | $7,111.61 | $6,930.88 |
+$230.57 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $38.24 | 181 | $6,922.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 12:05pm ET | $37.09 | 181 | $6,713.29 | $6,721.83 |
$-209.05 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 1:30pm ET | $37.25 | 180 | $6,704.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $35.95 | 180 | $6,471.00 | $6,488.55 |
$-233.28 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $36.18 | 179 | $6,476.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 3:30pm ET | $36.90 | 179 | $6,605.99 | $6,618.33 |
+$129.77 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 11:30am ET | $39.69 | 166 | $6,587.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 12:20pm ET | $40.52 | 166 | $6,726.32 | $6,756.94 |
+$138.61 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 12:20pm ET | $40.65 | 166 | $6,747.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $39.35 | 166 | $6,532.10 | $6,541.97 |
$-214.97 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $38.80 | 168 | $6,518.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $37.56 | 168 | $6,309.24 | $6,332.79 |
$-209.18 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $37.19 | 170 | $6,323.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $37.99 | 170 | $6,458.30 | $6,467.94 |
+$135.15 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 2:40pm ET | $36.04 | 179 | $6,451.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $36.78 | 179 | $6,583.62 | $6,600.40 |
+$132.46 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $38.78 | 170 | $6,593.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $39.71 | 170 | $6,749.85 | $6,756.80 |
+$156.40 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 12:20pm ET | $38.59 | 175 | $6,753.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $40.54 | 175 | $7,094.50 | $7,098.05 |
+$341.25 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $41.04 | 172 | $7,058.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.42 | 172 | $7,296.24 | $7,335.41 |
+$237.36 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 10:45am ET | $40.09 | 182 | $7,296.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $41.03 | 182 | $7,466.57 | $7,505.60 |
+$170.19 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,505.60
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,494.40
Total Return:
-24.94%