Compendium › Rebel Contraire › SOLUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y Era All 🔄 Era 2 (442 days)
SOLUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 60 trades in period

-30.40%
Last 3 Months Return
$168.54
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$189.38
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:04:43

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.6 oversold
20d Trend
-38.8%
5d Trend
-41.0%
EMA20 Dist
-37.6%
ATR%
13.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 20%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
1.0/25
Win Rate
68.2/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
1.8/10
Raw Quality 187.9/100
× Confidence 0.20 = 37.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (20%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,810
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$189.38
Current Value
$168.54
Period P&L
$-57.56
Max Drawdown
-99.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
60
Winners / Losers
35 / 25
Best Trade
+3.38%
Worst Trade
-6.27%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
7.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$19,775.72
Estimated Fees
$49.44
Gross P&L
$-57.56
Net P&L (after fees)
$-107.00
Gross Return
-30.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-56.50%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

💸 Capital Refund History

When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.

# Date Capital Before Trades Before Era Fees Paid Reason
1 Feb 18, 2025 $99.26 1,030 $13,097.23 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.

📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures

Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.

💀 Era 1 — CRASHED
Dec 31, 2023 → Feb 18, 2025
Trades
1,030
Win Rate
60.5%
P&L
$-9,900.69
Fees Paid
$13,097.23
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,000
Crashed At
$99.26
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOLUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 60 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $189.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 6:20pm ET $79.32 2 $193.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET $76.32 2 $186.52 $185.57 $-8.28
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
48m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $72.29 3 $185.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $67.76 3 $173.95 $173.05 $-12.53
(-6.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:15pm ET $77.59 2 $173.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:30am ET $79.63 2 $177.60 $176.72 +$3.67
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:15am ET $80.36 2 $176.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 8:00am ET $82.22 2 $180.81 $179.92 +$3.20
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:00am ET $82.73 2 $179.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:30am ET $84.47 2 $183.70 $182.79 +$2.88
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:00pm ET $86.96 2 $182.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 5:20pm ET $88.73 2 $186.51 $185.59 +$2.80
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 6:15pm ET $87.72 2 $185.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2026 2:10am ET $84.79 2 $179.39 $178.48 $-7.11
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 7, 2026 2:15am ET $84.69 2 $178.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2026 7:15am ET $86.96 2 $183.26 $182.36 +$3.88
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 7, 2026 8:35am ET $85.48 2 $182.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2026 11:05am ET $87.22 2 $186.07 $185.15 +$2.79
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 7, 2026 11:45am ET $88.28 2 $185.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 2:40am ET $85.38 2 $179.07 $178.16 $-6.99
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:45am ET $85.32 2 $178.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:35pm ET $87.73 2 $183.19 $182.29 +$4.13
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:20pm ET $87.33 2 $182.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:45am ET $84.61 2 $176.61 $175.72 $-6.57
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.4h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:50am ET $84.31 2 $175.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $84.82 2 $176.77 $175.89 +$0.18
(+0.6%) 		📅 Sim Ended
10.7h held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:10pm ET $84.42 2 $175.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:50pm ET $81.83 2 $170.51 $170.51 $-6.25
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.7h held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 1:05am ET $81.26 2 $170.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 12:00pm ET $78.17 2 $164.02 $164.02 $-7.32
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.9h held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 12:15pm ET $84.03 2 $164.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 5:00pm ET $85.99 2 $167.85 $167.85 +$3.00
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 5:15pm ET $85.85 2 $167.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $83.07 2 $162.42 $162.42 $-6.26
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16.7h held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:30am ET $83.36 2 $162.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 1:40pm ET $85.31 2 $166.22 $166.22 +$2.98
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 2:25pm ET $84.98 2 $166.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 9:25am ET $82.43 2 $161.23 $161.23 $-5.81
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19h held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 10:50am ET $83.34 2 $161.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET $80.67 2 $156.06 $156.06 $-5.96
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 2:55pm ET $80.80 2 $156.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 1:30am ET $82.43 2 $159.21 $159.21 +$2.36
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10.6h held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 1:35am ET $82.29 2 $159.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 8:45am ET $79.81 2 $154.41 $154.41 $-5.58
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.2h held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 10:30am ET $80.06 2 $154.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 1:45pm ET $81.84 2 $157.84 $157.84 +$2.65
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 2:20pm ET $81.67 2 $157.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 7:30pm ET $83.35 2 $161.09 $161.09 +$2.45
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 8:25pm ET $82.73 2 $161.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 5:10am ET $84.41 2 $164.36 $164.36 +$2.46
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.8h held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 6:00am ET $84.03 2 $164.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 21, 2026 9:00am ET $85.77 2 $167.76 $167.76 +$2.57
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
27 🟢 BUY Feb 21, 2026 9:10am ET $85.67 2 $167.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 22, 2026 12:35pm ET $82.90 2 $162.34 $162.34 $-6.25
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
28 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 12:40pm ET $82.84 2 $162.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET $79.24 2 $155.29 $155.29 $-7.85
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.5h held
29 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 8:15pm ET $78.77 2 $155.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 4:55am ET $80.38 2 $158.46 $158.46 +$2.39
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.7h held
30 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 5:05am ET $80.36 2 $158.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 12:40pm ET $77.86 2 $153.53 $153.53 $-5.71
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.6h held
31 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 1:50pm ET $78.94 2 $153.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 11:15pm ET $76.16 2 $148.12 $148.12 $-6.16
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.4h held
32 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 4:25am ET $76.53 2 $148.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $78.16 2 $151.27 $151.27 +$2.41
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.6h held
33 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 12:30pm ET $78.09 2 $151.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 8:10pm ET $80.60 2 $156.13 $156.13 +$4.09
(+3.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.7h held
34 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 11:55pm ET $81.98 2 $156.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 7:50am ET $83.74 2 $159.48 $159.48 +$2.56
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.9h held
35 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET $84.11 2 $159.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 10:00am ET $85.82 2 $162.72 $162.72 +$2.44
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
25m held
36 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 12:55pm ET $88.34 2 $162.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 4:35pm ET $90.88 2 $167.40 $167.40 +$3.85
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held
37 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 4:55pm ET $89.95 2 $167.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 6:40pm ET $87.20 2 $162.28 $162.28 $-5.94
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
38 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 6:45pm ET $87.15 2 $162.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 7:20pm ET $89.10 2 $165.91 $165.91 +$2.81
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
35m held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 4:55pm ET $89.95 2 $167.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET $86.50 2 $160.98 $159.49 $-7.24
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16.9h held
40 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:10am ET $86.10 2 $159.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 11:10pm ET $87.88 2 $162.79 $162.79 +$2.49
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12h held
41 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:40pm ET $87.62 2 $162.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 5:50am ET $84.89 2 $157.72 $157.72 $-5.87
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.2h held
42 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 6:35am ET $83.94 2 $157.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 12:20pm ET $81.29 2 $152.74 $152.74 $-5.76
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held
43 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 12:25pm ET $81.37 2 $152.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET $78.90 2 $148.10 $148.10 $-5.39
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.2h held
44 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 1:55am ET $77.43 2 $148.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 2:40am ET $79.51 2 $152.08 $152.08 +$3.23
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
45m held
45 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 3:05am ET $78.52 2 $152.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 8:50am ET $80.39 2 $155.70 $155.70 +$2.85
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held
46 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 10:00am ET $80.25 2 $155.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 1:40pm ET $82.28 2 $159.64 $159.64 +$3.15
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held
47 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 2:05pm ET $82.08 2 $159.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 3:45pm ET $83.92 2 $163.22 $163.22 +$2.77
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held
48 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 5:50pm ET $84.73 2 $163.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 8:50pm ET $86.47 2 $166.57 $166.57 +$2.53
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3h held
49 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 9:55pm ET $87.84 2 $166.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 4:35am ET $85.12 2 $161.41 $161.41 $-5.98
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.7h held
50 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 5:45am ET $85.11 2 $161.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 3:15pm ET $82.51 2 $156.48 $156.48 $-5.73
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.5h held
51 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 3:30pm ET $82.26 2 $156.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 6:10pm ET $83.96 2 $159.71 $159.71 +$2.44
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held
52 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 7:00pm ET $83.57 2 $159.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 8:10pm ET $85.91 2 $164.18 $164.18 +$3.66
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held
53 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 8:25pm ET $85.01 2 $164.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 2:20am ET $82.45 2 $159.24 $159.24 $-5.75
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9h held
54 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 2:55am ET $82.96 2 $159.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:50am ET $85.76 2 $164.61 $164.61 +$4.56
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.9h held
55 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 11:35am ET $88.79 2 $164.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:00pm ET $85.87 2 $159.20 $159.20 $-6.22
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.4h held
56 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:05pm ET $85.56 2 $159.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:50am ET $82.93 2 $154.31 $154.31 $-5.68
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.8h held
57 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 11:40am ET $84.91 2 $154.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 6:05pm ET $86.68 2 $157.53 $157.53 +$2.44
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.4h held
58 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 6:35pm ET $86.63 2 $157.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:50am ET $89.00 2 $161.84 $161.84 +$3.51
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.3h held
59 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 5:55am ET $90.02 2 $161.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET $91.85 2 $165.13 $165.13 +$2.47
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.4h held
60 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 11:20am ET $91.50 2 $165.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET $93.39 2 $168.54 $168.54 +$2.58
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
+ 1 refund ($10,000)
Total Invested: $20,000.00
Ended with: $168.54
Net Profit/Loss: $-19,831.46
Total Return: -99.16%
Back to Rebel Contraire