Compendium › Rebel Contraire › SPXU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPXU
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 24 trades in period

+16.00%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,841.17
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$11,070.25
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:46:38

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.0/35
Total Return
11.7/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 27.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 27.5

30-Day Momentum

17
+1.3%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.4 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,070.25
Current Value
$12,841.17
Period P&L
$1,770.92
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
14 / 10
Best Trade
+4.27%
Worst Trade
-3.29%
Avg Trade Return
+0.65%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$574,544.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,770.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,770.92
Gross Return
+16.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+16.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,070.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 10:50am ET $38.18 289 $11,034.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $39.05 289 $11,285.45 $11,321.39 +$251.14
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:25pm ET $38.69 292 $11,297.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $40.01 292 $11,682.92 $11,706.86 +$385.47
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:25am ET $38.71 302 $11,690.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:55am ET $37.49 302 $11,321.98 $11,338.42 $-368.44
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:55am ET $37.28 304 $11,331.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET $36.83 304 $11,196.32 $11,203.14 $-135.28
(-1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:55am ET $37.14 301 $11,179.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET $37.98 301 $11,431.98 $11,455.98 +$252.84
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 11:05am ET $36.84 310 $11,420.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 11:05am ET $36.31 310 $11,256.10 $11,291.68 $-164.30
(-1.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:50pm ET $36.53 309 $11,287.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $38.09 309 $11,769.81 $11,773.72 +$482.04
(+4.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:40am ET $36.99 318 $11,762.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 2:30pm ET $37.73 318 $11,998.36 $12,009.26 +$235.54
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 3:45pm ET $36.99 324 $11,983.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $38.10 324 $12,344.40 $12,370.52 +$361.26
(+3.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $38.45 321 $12,342.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET $38.38 321 $12,319.98 $12,348.05 $-22.47
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:45am ET $38.86 317 $12,318.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $37.58 317 $11,912.86 $11,942.58 $-405.47
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:55am ET $36.40 328 $11,939.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $35.21 328 $11,548.88 $11,552.26 $-390.32
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:40am ET $33.07 349 $11,541.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 11:50am ET $33.76 349 $11,781.93 $11,792.76 +$240.50
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $34.10 345 $11,762.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 12:55pm ET $33.84 345 $11,674.80 $11,704.78 $-87.98
(-0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:35am ET $33.31 351 $11,691.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $34.36 351 $12,060.36 $12,073.33 +$368.55
(+3.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET $34.08 354 $12,064.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 1:20pm ET $34.80 354 $12,319.20 $12,328.21 +$254.88
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:50pm ET $34.71 355 $12,322.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $34.67 355 $12,307.85 $12,314.01 $-14.20
(-0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 3:40pm ET $34.10 361 $12,308.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:40am ET $34.78 361 $12,555.58 $12,561.29 +$247.28
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 10:05am ET $35.20 356 $12,531.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:05am ET $34.13 356 $12,152.06 $12,182.15 $-379.14
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 11:15am ET $34.29 355 $12,172.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $35.15 355 $12,478.25 $12,487.45 +$305.30
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:25am ET $35.71 349 $12,462.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:25am ET $36.05 349 $12,582.01 $12,606.67 +$119.22
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 10:40am ET $35.81 352 $12,605.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $36.58 352 $12,874.40 $12,875.95 +$269.28
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.4h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:05pm ET $35.30 364 $12,849.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:30am ET $34.24 364 $12,461.54 $12,488.29 $-387.66
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 3:10pm ET $33.57 372 $12,488.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $34.52 372 $12,840.92 $12,841.17 +$352.88
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,841.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,841.17
Total Return: +28.41%
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