Compendium › Rebel Contraire › TMO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TMO
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 24 trades in period

+26.13%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,745.28
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$8,519.05
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:26:01

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
6.5/25
Win Rate
6.0/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 18.6/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 18.5

30-Day Momentum

5
-1.0%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,519.05
Current Value
$10,745.28
Period P&L
$2,226.28
Max Drawdown
-23.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
16 / 8
Best Trade
+12.02%
Worst Trade
-5.22%
Avg Trade Return
+1.18%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$453,851.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,226.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,226.28
Gross Return
+26.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+26.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,519.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:55pm ET $488.44 16 $7,815.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET $508.00 16 $8,128.00 $8,575.33 +$312.96
(+4.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:00am ET $501.88 17 $8,531.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:45pm ET $512.32 17 $8,709.44 $8,752.90 +$177.57
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:40am ET $500.14 17 $8,502.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:10am ET $510.53 17 $8,679.01 $8,929.52 +$176.63
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:10am ET $525.58 16 $8,409.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET $509.39 16 $8,150.24 $8,670.48 $-259.04
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET $516.84 16 $8,269.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $528.06 16 $8,449.00 $8,849.96 +$179.48
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 11:55am ET $530.35 16 $8,485.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET $541.52 16 $8,664.32 $9,028.68 +$178.72
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:50am ET $537.84 16 $8,605.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $509.77 16 $8,156.24 $8,579.56 $-449.12
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 10:30am ET $519.59 16 $8,313.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $582.04 16 $9,312.72 $9,578.84 +$999.28
(+12.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $562.04 17 $9,554.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $574.77 17 $9,771.09 $9,795.25 +$216.41
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 12:10pm ET $577.52 16 $9,240.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $575.20 16 $9,203.20 $9,758.13 $-37.12
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 12:45pm ET $565.60 17 $9,615.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 11:45am ET $577.29 17 $9,813.93 $9,956.77 +$198.64
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 11:45am ET $572.43 17 $9,731.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:15am ET $584.49 17 $9,936.33 $10,161.79 +$205.02
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 11:50am ET $592.75 17 $10,076.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 3:40pm ET $605.47 17 $10,292.99 $10,378.03 +$216.24
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 3:50pm ET $603.42 17 $10,258.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $583.07 17 $9,912.11 $10,032.00 $-346.03
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:10am ET $588.17 17 $9,998.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET $608.60 17 $10,346.20 $10,379.31 +$347.31
(+3.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:10am ET $617.11 16 $9,873.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 11:05am ET $631.61 16 $10,105.76 $10,611.28 +$231.97
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
55m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 12:20pm ET $623.96 17 $10,607.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 12:20pm ET $633.50 17 $10,769.50 $10,773.46 +$162.18
(+1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 1:05pm ET $634.87 16 $10,157.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $614.34 16 $9,829.44 $10,444.98 $-328.48
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 1:05pm ET $634.87 16 $10,157.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:35am ET $612.41 16 $9,798.48 $10,085.54 $-359.44
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:55pm ET $613.86 16 $9,821.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $605.67 16 $9,690.80 $9,954.58 $-130.96
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $604.09 16 $9,665.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $626.83 16 $10,029.28 $10,318.42 +$363.84
(+3.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 10:30am ET $639.33 16 $10,229.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $652.48 16 $10,439.76 $10,528.90 +$210.48
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $659.18 15 $9,887.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 3:10pm ET $657.72 15 $9,865.80 $10,507.00 $-21.90
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 3:10pm ET $658.36 15 $9,875.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:55am ET $674.25 15 $10,113.75 $10,745.28 +$238.28
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,745.28
Net Profit/Loss: +$745.28
Total Return: +7.45%
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