Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:19:41

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 11.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.5

30-Day Momentum

17
+1.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.2 Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,032.06
Current Value
$6,550.86
Period P&L
$-481.17
Max Drawdown
-41.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
17 / 14
Best Trade
+7.19%
Worst Trade
-5.85%
Avg Trade Return
+0.02%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$434,771.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-481.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-481.17
Gross Return
-6.84%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.84%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $7,032.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 2:40pm ET $72.79 91 $6,623.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $78.02 91 $7,099.82 $7,102.77 +$475.93
(+7.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 10:35am ET $72.99 97 $7,080.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:40am ET $74.55 97 $7,231.37 $7,254.11 +$151.34
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 2:25pm ET $76.75 94 $7,214.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $78.36 94 $7,365.84 $7,405.45 +$151.34
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET $77.77 95 $7,388.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:25am ET $79.57 95 $7,558.68 $7,575.98 +$170.53
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:50am ET $74.38 101 $7,512.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET $75.99 101 $7,674.99 $7,738.59 +$162.61
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET $73.15 105 $7,680.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET $70.57 105 $7,409.85 $7,467.69 $-270.90
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:20pm ET $76.50 97 $7,420.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $74.05 97 $7,182.86 $7,229.57 $-238.12
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 10:10am ET $74.13 97 $7,190.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 11:20am ET $75.68 97 $7,340.96 $7,379.93 +$150.36
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 11:50am ET $73.45 100 $7,345.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:45am ET $71.16 100 $7,116.00 $7,150.93 $-229.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:50am ET $67.47 105 $7,084.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 12:40pm ET $68.98 105 $7,242.91 $7,308.96 +$158.04
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 2:40pm ET $68.18 107 $7,295.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $70.19 107 $7,510.32 $7,523.49 +$214.52
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $70.20 107 $7,511.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $67.39 107 $7,211.26 $7,223.35 $-300.14
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:40am ET $65.41 110 $7,195.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET $63.30 110 $6,963.00 $6,991.26 $-232.09
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 12:30pm ET $61.90 112 $6,932.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 10:10am ET $59.76 112 $6,693.11 $6,752.13 $-239.13
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 10:45am ET $63.00 107 $6,741.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $65.56 107 $7,014.92 $7,026.05 +$273.92
(+4.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 11:10am ET $67.02 104 $6,970.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $70.34 104 $7,315.57 $7,371.55 +$345.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:20am ET $75.49 97 $7,322.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $71.07 97 $6,893.79 $6,942.82 $-428.73
(-5.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET $73.35 94 $6,894.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 10:10am ET $74.83 94 $7,034.03 $7,082.12 +$139.30
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:05am ET $74.02 95 $7,031.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $75.60 95 $7,182.00 $7,232.22 +$150.10
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 10:45am ET $77.43 93 $7,201.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $73.27 93 $6,814.11 $6,844.87 $-387.35
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET $71.50 95 $6,792.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 12:10pm ET $73.00 95 $6,934.53 $6,986.90 +$142.03
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 1:15pm ET $70.72 98 $6,930.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $68.14 98 $6,677.72 $6,734.06 $-252.84
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 1:15pm ET $70.72 98 $6,930.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $69.66 98 $6,826.46 $6,629.96 $-104.10
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET $72.55 91 $6,602.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 11:00am ET $74.10 91 $6,743.09 $6,771.00 +$141.04
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 11:35am ET $71.14 95 $6,757.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $68.93 95 $6,547.88 $6,560.95 $-210.05
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 10:55am ET $69.11 94 $6,496.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $70.62 94 $6,638.27 $6,702.88 +$141.93
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:45am ET $72.56 92 $6,675.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:45am ET $71.75 92 $6,600.63 $6,628.45 $-74.43
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:50am ET $69.82 94 $6,563.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $71.24 94 $6,696.56 $6,761.93 +$133.48
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 12:05pm ET $69.21 97 $6,713.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $66.93 97 $6,492.69 $6,541.25 $-220.68
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
30 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET $71.73 91 $6,527.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $74.89 91 $6,814.99 $6,828.81 +$287.56
(+4.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
31 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 10:05am ET $79.97 85 $6,797.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $76.70 85 $6,519.50 $6,550.86 $-277.95
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,550.86
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,449.14
Total Return: -34.49%
Back to Rebel Contraire