Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:04:46

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.9/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 31.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 31.0

30-Day Momentum

28
+3.6%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 34.3 Conf: 0.81×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,438.88
Current Value
$14,237.31
Period P&L
$798.42
Max Drawdown
-37.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
16 / 9
Best Trade
+3.46%
Worst Trade
-3.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.26%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$655,799.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$798.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$798.42
Gross Return
+5.94%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,438.88 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:55am ET $384.95 34 $13,088.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $392.71 34 $13,352.31 $13,703.07 +$264.18
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:25am ET $414.90 33 $13,691.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 3:05pm ET $423.94 33 $13,990.02 $14,001.39 +$298.32
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $425.37 32 $13,611.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:00am ET $410.96 32 $13,150.72 $13,540.27 $-461.12
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 11:20am ET $409.58 33 $13,516.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 12:20pm ET $418.03 33 $13,794.99 $13,819.12 +$278.85
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 1:10pm ET $408.54 33 $13,481.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $396.20 33 $13,074.55 $13,411.85 $-407.27
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $391.94 34 $13,325.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 11:50am ET $400.01 34 $13,600.34 $13,686.23 +$274.38
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 1:05pm ET $410.42 33 $13,543.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET $396.41 33 $13,081.53 $13,223.90 $-462.33
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 11:20am ET $399.04 33 $13,168.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $386.65 33 $12,759.45 $12,814.96 $-408.94
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET $377.65 33 $12,462.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:40am ET $378.52 33 $12,491.16 $12,843.67 +$28.71
(+0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET $326.72 39 $12,742.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 3:35pm ET $316.84 39 $12,356.76 $12,458.35 $-385.32
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:45am ET $312.83 39 $12,200.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:50am ET $302.79 39 $11,808.81 $12,066.79 $-391.56
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 11:45am ET $302.39 39 $11,793.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 3:05pm ET $308.62 39 $12,036.18 $12,309.95 +$243.16
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 3:05pm ET $310.08 39 $12,093.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET $317.58 39 $12,385.62 $12,602.45 +$292.50
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:25am ET $323.14 38 $12,279.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:50am ET $329.83 38 $12,533.54 $12,856.48 +$254.03
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 11:00am ET $329.13 39 $12,836.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 12:50pm ET $335.83 39 $13,097.56 $13,117.97 +$261.49
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 2:35pm ET $341.57 38 $12,979.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 12:10pm ET $348.54 38 $13,244.52 $13,382.83 +$264.86
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 12:20pm ET $344.82 38 $13,103.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:00am ET $354.12 38 $13,456.56 $13,736.23 +$353.40
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 11:25am ET $357.41 38 $13,581.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $343.60 38 $13,056.80 $13,211.45 $-524.78
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:30am ET $352.32 37 $13,035.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET $359.42 37 $13,298.54 $13,474.34 +$262.89
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 10:20am ET $358.40 37 $13,260.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $370.82 37 $13,720.34 $13,933.69 +$459.35
(+3.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $362.78 38 $13,785.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:55am ET $351.70 38 $13,364.60 $13,512.65 $-421.04
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 12:10pm ET $367.21 36 $13,219.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $359.79 36 $12,952.44 $13,245.53 $-267.12
(-2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $357.78 37 $13,237.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $366.70 37 $13,568.08 $13,575.75 +$330.22
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:55am ET $366.39 37 $13,556.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $375.74 37 $13,902.38 $13,921.70 +$345.95
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 11:00am ET $375.83 37 $13,905.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET $384.36 37 $14,221.32 $14,237.31 +$315.61
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,237.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,237.31
Total Return: +42.37%
Back to Rebel Contraire