Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:31:15

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.4 oversold
20d Trend
-22.6%
5d Trend
-9.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
4.9%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 9.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 9.7

30-Day Momentum

9
+0.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$297.90
Current Value
$7,182.16
Period P&L
$-501.97
Max Drawdown
-41.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
10 / 11
Best Trade
+4.18%
Worst Trade
-4.23%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$310,406.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-501.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$-501.97
Gross Return
-168.50%
Net Return (after fees)
-168.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 UNH Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $297.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:30am ET $405.87 18 $7,305.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET $414.01 18 $7,452.18 $7,669.55 +$146.52
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 12:10pm ET $424.95 18 $7,649.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 12:10pm ET $424.73 18 $7,645.14 $7,665.59 $-3.96
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:30am ET $405.87 18 $7,305.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $422.84 18 $7,611.12 $7,971.05 +$305.46
(+4.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET $422.36 18 $7,602.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:50am ET $431.64 18 $7,769.52 $8,138.09 +$167.04
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:10am ET $425.42 19 $8,082.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:10am ET $420.78 19 $7,994.82 $8,049.93 $-88.16
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 10:10am ET $443.27 18 $7,978.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 1:20pm ET $429.85 18 $7,737.21 $7,808.28 $-241.65
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:30pm ET $427.37 18 $7,692.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $436.47 18 $7,856.46 $7,972.08 +$163.80
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:50am ET $426.76 18 $7,681.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:55am ET $413.71 18 $7,446.87 $7,737.27 $-234.81
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:05am ET $418.20 18 $7,527.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 12:10pm ET $426.61 18 $7,678.89 $7,888.65 +$151.38
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:10am ET $425.42 19 $8,082.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $413.48 19 $7,856.12 $7,661.79 $-226.86
(-2.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET $419.14 18 $7,544.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $401.39 18 $7,225.11 $7,342.29 $-319.50
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET $410.07 17 $6,971.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET $410.18 17 $6,973.06 $7,344.16 +$1.87
(+0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 10:00am ET $403.48 18 $7,262.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:00am ET $396.57 18 $7,138.17 $7,219.78 $-124.38
(-1.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:00am ET $396.28 18 $7,133.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 3:40pm ET $384.02 18 $6,912.36 $6,999.10 $-220.68
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $390.00 17 $6,630.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $398.58 17 $6,775.86 $7,144.96 +$145.86
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $390.00 17 $6,630.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $401.12 17 $6,819.00 $7,333.96 +$189.00
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET $397.57 18 $7,156.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $395.82 18 $7,124.67 $7,302.34 $-31.62
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET $397.57 18 $7,156.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $403.36 18 $7,260.56 $7,406.61 +$104.27
(+1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 11:40am ET $397.05 18 $7,146.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $405.19 18 $7,293.42 $7,553.13 +$146.52
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:55am ET $396.87 19 $7,540.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET $383.34 19 $7,283.46 $7,296.06 $-257.07
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 11:20am ET $383.84 19 $7,292.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $377.85 19 $7,179.06 $7,182.16 $-113.90
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,182.16
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,817.84
Total Return: -28.18%
Back to Rebel Contraire