Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:21

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.4 oversold
20d Trend
-22.6%
5d Trend
-9.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
4.9%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 10.8/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 10.2

30-Day Momentum

33
+6.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.4 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,558.46
Current Value
$8,138.09
Period P&L
$579.61
Max Drawdown
-41.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
9 / 6
Best Trade
+4.18%
Worst Trade
-3.91%
Avg Trade Return
+0.50%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$223,152.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$579.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$579.61
Gross Return
+7.67%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.67%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 UNH Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $7,558.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET $355.27 21 $7,460.77
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:40am ET $349.67 21 $7,343.07 $7,478.37 $-117.70
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:55pm ET $368.21 20 $7,364.27
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $369.59 20 $7,391.80 $7,505.90 +$27.53
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
3 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:10am ET $363.80 20 $7,276.00
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $373.60 20 $7,472.00 $7,701.90 +$196.00
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:55am ET $378.30 20 $7,566.00
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 11:05am ET $386.13 20 $7,722.50 $7,858.40 +$156.50
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:10am ET $400.86 19 $7,616.34
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $385.17 19 $7,318.23 $7,560.29 $-298.11
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
6 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:40am ET $388.69 19 $7,385.11
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $384.83 19 $7,311.77 $7,486.95 $-73.34
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
7 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:25am ET $381.93 19 $7,256.67
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:25am ET $382.20 19 $7,261.80 $7,492.08 +$5.13
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:00am ET $378.43 19 $7,190.26
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:55am ET $386.91 19 $7,351.29 $7,653.11 +$161.03
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:40am ET $398.64 19 $7,574.07
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 2:50pm ET $406.62 19 $7,725.78 $7,804.82 +$151.71
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:15pm ET $411.46 18 $7,406.28
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $400.92 18 $7,216.47 $7,615.01 $-189.81
(-2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $408.14 18 $7,346.52
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $403.03 18 $7,254.54 $7,523.03 $-91.98
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:30am ET $405.87 18 $7,305.66
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET $414.01 18 $7,452.18 $7,669.55 +$146.52
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 12:10pm ET $424.95 18 $7,649.10
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 12:10pm ET $424.73 18 $7,645.14 $7,665.59 $-3.96
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:30am ET $405.87 18 $7,305.66
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $422.84 18 $7,611.12 $7,971.05 +$305.46
(+4.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET $422.36 18 $7,602.48
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:50am ET $431.64 18 $7,769.52 $8,138.09 +$167.04
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,138.09
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,861.91
Total Return: -18.62%
Back to Rebel Contraire