VXX Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 36 trades in period
+35.16%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,126.29
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$6,012.33
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
10.3/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.3
30-Day Momentum
50
+9.6%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 55.1
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+39 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,881
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,012.33
Current Value
$8,126.29
Period P&L
$2,113.99
Max Drawdown
-57.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.30
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
25 /
11
Best Trade
+5.43%
Worst Trade
-4.65%
Avg Trade Return
+0.88%
Avg Hold Time
20.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$497,063.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,113.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,113.99
Gross Return
+35.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+35.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,012.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $27.37 | 219 | $5,994.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $26.54 | 219 | $5,812.26 | $5,830.47 |
$-181.84 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:45pm ET | $26.99 | 216 | $5,829.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $27.64 | 216 | $5,971.02 | $5,971.65 |
+$141.18 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $29.85 | 200 | $5,971.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $28.84 | 200 | $5,768.00 | $5,768.65 |
$-203.00 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 11:40am ET | $27.80 | 207 | $5,754.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $28.40 | 207 | $5,877.77 | $5,891.82 |
+$123.17 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:00pm ET | $29.26 | 201 | $5,882.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $28.28 | 201 | $5,684.42 | $5,693.98 |
$-197.84 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $29.24 | 194 | $5,672.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.88 | 194 | $5,408.72 | $5,430.14 |
$-263.84 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.34 | 198 | $5,413.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $27.97 | 198 | $5,537.07 | $5,553.89 |
+$123.75 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.02 | 191 | $5,543.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.60 | 191 | $5,844.60 | $5,854.72 |
+$300.83 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $32.85 | 178 | $5,847.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $31.84 | 178 | $5,667.52 | $5,674.94 |
$-179.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:00pm ET | $29.25 | 194 | $5,673.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.99 | 194 | $5,818.06 | $5,819.47 |
+$144.53 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $33.36 | 174 | $5,804.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $34.05 | 174 | $5,924.70 | $5,939.53 |
+$120.06 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 12:35pm ET | $33.92 | 175 | $5,936.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $34.63 | 175 | $6,061.12 | $6,064.65 |
+$125.13 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $30.77 | 197 | $6,062.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $32.20 | 197 | $6,343.40 | $6,345.38 |
+$280.73 (+4.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 2:25pm ET | $33.04 | 192 | $6,343.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.87 | 192 | $6,503.04 | $6,504.74 |
+$159.36 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.09 | 196 | $6,485.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $33.79 | 196 | $6,623.82 | $6,642.92 |
+$138.18 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:15am ET | $32.62 | 203 | $6,621.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $33.42 | 203 | $6,784.26 | $6,805.32 |
+$162.40 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:05pm ET | $31.76 | 214 | $6,797.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.15 | 214 | $7,094.10 | $7,101.71 |
+$296.39 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $35.59 | 199 | $7,082.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 12:35pm ET | $34.51 | 199 | $6,867.49 | $6,886.79 |
$-214.92 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 12:45pm ET | $34.68 | 198 | $6,866.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:20pm ET | $35.55 | 198 | $7,038.90 | $7,059.05 |
+$172.26 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:45pm ET | $33.79 | 208 | $7,028.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.39 | 208 | $7,361.12 | $7,391.85 |
+$332.80 (+4.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $34.06 | 217 | $7,391.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $34.85 | 217 | $7,562.45 | $7,563.28 |
+$171.43 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:45pm ET | $35.81 | 211 | $7,556.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:15pm ET | $36.53 | 211 | $7,708.88 | $7,715.20 |
+$151.92 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $38.41 | 200 | $7,682.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:25pm ET | $39.35 | 200 | $7,869.00 | $7,902.20 |
+$187.00 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 1:50pm ET | $36.06 | 219 | $7,898.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.96 | 219 | $7,656.24 | $7,660.21 |
$-241.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $36.77 | 208 | $7,648.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $35.58 | 208 | $7,400.64 | $7,412.69 |
$-247.52 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $33.76 | 219 | $7,394.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.65 | 219 | $7,588.35 | $7,606.51 |
+$193.82 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $31.54 | 241 | $7,601.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $32.67 | 241 | $7,873.47 | $7,878.84 |
+$272.33 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $30.94 | 254 | $7,860.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:15pm ET | $30.01 | 254 | $7,623.81 | $7,642.62 |
$-236.22 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:35pm ET | $29.16 | 262 | $7,638.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $29.95 | 262 | $7,848.21 | $7,852.22 |
+$209.60 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $28.65 | 274 | $7,848.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.30 | 274 | $8,028.20 | $8,031.69 |
+$179.47 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.30 | 274 | $8,028.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $29.92 | 274 | $8,198.08 | $8,201.57 |
+$169.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:15pm ET | $29.51 | 277 | $8,175.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $30.11 | 277 | $8,341.85 | $8,367.77 |
+$166.20 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:40pm ET | $29.43 | 284 | $8,358.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $28.40 | 284 | $8,065.63 | $8,075.28 |
$-292.49 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $29.00 | 278 | $8,063.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.97 | 278 | $7,775.66 | $7,787.55 |
$-287.73 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $28.00 | 278 | $7,782.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $28.61 | 278 | $7,954.97 | $7,959.91 |
+$172.36 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $28.14 | 282 | $7,935.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $28.73 | 282 | $8,101.86 | $8,126.29 |
+$166.38 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,126.29
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,873.71
Total Return:
-18.74%