Compendium › Rebel Contraire › VXX
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
VXX
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-21 to present • 30 trades in period

+0.28%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,078.78
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$7,059.08
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-21 10:11:00

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 9.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 9.6

30-Day Momentum

9
-10.8%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.2 Conf: 0.84×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,059.08
Current Value
$7,078.78
Period P&L
$19.73
Max Drawdown
-57.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
18 / 12
Best Trade
+4.74%
Worst Trade
-7.35%
Avg Trade Return
+0.06%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$462,944.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$19.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$19.73
Gross Return
+0.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.28%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $7,059.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:45pm ET $33.79 208 $7,028.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $35.39 208 $7,361.12 $7,391.85 +$332.80
(+4.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 10:50am ET $34.06 217 $7,391.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET $34.85 217 $7,562.45 $7,563.28 +$171.43
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
30m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 12:45pm ET $35.81 211 $7,556.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:15pm ET $36.53 211 $7,708.88 $7,715.20 +$151.92
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:10am ET $38.41 200 $7,682.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 1:25pm ET $39.35 200 $7,869.00 $7,902.20 +$187.00
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 1:50pm ET $36.06 219 $7,898.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $34.96 219 $7,656.24 $7,660.21 $-241.99
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:50am ET $36.77 208 $7,648.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:35am ET $35.58 208 $7,400.64 $7,412.69 $-247.52
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 11:00am ET $33.76 219 $7,394.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $34.65 219 $7,588.35 $7,606.51 +$193.82
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:20am ET $31.54 241 $7,601.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 10:55am ET $32.67 241 $7,873.47 $7,878.84 +$272.33
(+3.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
35m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:55am ET $30.94 254 $7,860.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 3:15pm ET $30.01 254 $7,623.81 $7,642.62 $-236.22
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 3:35pm ET $29.16 262 $7,638.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET $29.95 262 $7,848.21 $7,852.22 +$209.60
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:55am ET $28.65 274 $7,848.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $29.30 274 $8,028.20 $8,031.69 +$179.47
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $29.30 274 $8,028.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $29.92 274 $8,198.08 $8,201.57 +$169.88
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:15pm ET $29.51 277 $8,175.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:15pm ET $30.11 277 $8,341.85 $8,367.77 +$166.20
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:40pm ET $29.43 284 $8,358.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $28.40 284 $8,065.63 $8,075.28 $-292.49
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $29.00 278 $8,063.39 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $27.97 278 $7,775.66 $7,787.55 $-287.73
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
16 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:50am ET $28.00 278 $7,782.61 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 11:20am ET $28.61 278 $7,954.97 $7,959.91 +$172.36
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
17 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 2:10pm ET $28.14 282 $7,935.48 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $28.73 282 $8,101.86 $8,126.29 +$166.38
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
18 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:35am ET $27.89 291 $8,114.54 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 3:35pm ET $28.47 291 $8,284.77 $8,296.52 +$170.23
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.3d held
19 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 10:00am ET $27.85 297 $8,271.45 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:25am ET $28.47 297 $8,455.59 $8,480.66 +$184.14
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
20 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 10:45am ET $27.98 303 $8,477.94 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 10:20am ET $27.03 303 $8,190.09 $8,192.81 $-287.85
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
21 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 10:35am ET $27.00 303 $8,182.51 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 3:35pm ET $26.15 303 $7,923.45 $7,933.75 $-259.06
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5h held
22 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:40pm ET $26.41 300 $7,924.29 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:45am ET $25.48 300 $7,644.03 $7,653.49 $-280.26
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
23 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $25.44 300 $7,631.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 12:40pm ET $24.66 300 $7,396.50 $7,418.59 $-234.90
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
24 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 1:20pm ET $23.92 310 $7,415.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $24.41 310 $7,567.10 $7,570.49 +$151.90
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:50am ET $24.37 310 $7,554.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 3:45pm ET $23.62 310 $7,322.23 $7,338.02 $-232.47
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $25.23 290 $7,316.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:55am ET $24.47 290 $7,094.85 $7,116.17 $-221.85
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:55am ET $24.23 293 $7,099.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET $24.74 293 $7,248.82 $7,265.60 +$149.43
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
50m held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:40pm ET $26.31 276 $7,261.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 11:00am ET $26.94 276 $7,436.82 $7,440.86 +$175.26
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 11:00am ET $24.84 299 $7,427.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $23.01 299 $6,881.48 $6,895.18 $-545.68
(-7.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
30 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:40am ET $22.53 306 $6,894.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $23.13 306 $7,077.78 $7,078.78 +$183.60
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,078.78
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,921.22
Total Return: -29.21%
Back to Rebel Contraire