Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:34:58

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

56
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
23.6/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 58.9/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 55.7

30-Day Momentum

27
+3.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
4.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 43.3 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$19,543.04
Current Value
$18,699.01
Period P&L
$-843.97
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
8 / 7
Best Trade
+2.28%
Worst Trade
-3.57%
Avg Trade Return
-0.17%
Avg Hold Time
4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$566,824.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-843.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$-843.97
Gross Return
-4.32%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $19,543.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:30am ET $56.67 339 $19,211.13
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET $57.49 339 $19,490.80 $19,529.42 +$279.68
(+1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:45pm ET $58.81 332 $19,526.58
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 12:45pm ET $59.26 332 $19,672.66 $19,675.50 +$146.08
(+0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 1:20pm ET $59.58 330 $19,663.05
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $57.46 330 $18,961.80 $18,974.25 $-701.25
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
4 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:00am ET $55.52 341 $18,933.92
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:50am ET $56.76 341 $19,356.86 $19,397.19 +$422.94
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
5 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 3:30pm ET $57.68 336 $19,380.48
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:50am ET $58.88 336 $19,782.00 $19,798.71 +$401.52
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
6 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 12:40pm ET $60.60 326 $19,755.60
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $58.84 326 $19,181.84 $19,224.95 $-573.76
(-2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held
7 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 1:30pm ET $57.38 335 $19,222.30
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $57.15 335 $19,143.58 $19,146.22 $-78.73
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 3:05pm ET $58.06 329 $19,103.38
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 12:15pm ET $59.28 329 $19,503.12 $19,545.96 +$399.74
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 1:20pm ET $58.90 331 $19,494.25
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $57.08 331 $18,895.13 $18,946.85 $-599.11
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:40am ET $58.54 323 $18,910.03
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $56.71 323 $18,315.72 $18,352.53 $-594.32
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:00am ET $55.22 332 $18,331.38
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:45am ET $53.37 332 $17,717.18 $17,738.33 $-614.20
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:45am ET $53.42 332 $17,733.78
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 1:15pm ET $54.51 332 $18,095.66 $18,100.21 +$361.88
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:30pm ET $53.31 339 $18,070.40
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 1:30pm ET $54.01 339 $18,311.08 $18,340.90 +$240.69
(+1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:30pm ET $53.31 339 $18,070.40
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $53.13 339 $18,011.07 $18,281.58 $-59.32
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 11:25am ET $54.08 338 $18,280.73
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $55.32 338 $18,698.16 $18,699.01 +$417.43
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,699.01
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,699.01
Total Return: +86.99%
Back to Rebel Contraire