Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:25:32

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.9/35
Total Return
8.0/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 21.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 20.8

30-Day Momentum

5
-0.4%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,901.09
Current Value
$10,827.39
Period P&L
$-2,073.70
Max Drawdown
-30.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.28

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
8 / 13
Best Trade
+3.85%
Worst Trade
-6.21%
Avg Trade Return
-0.71%
Avg Hold Time
4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$476,107.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,073.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,073.70
Gross Return
-16.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,901.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:40am ET $185.07 68 $12,584.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $183.42 68 $12,472.56 $12,627.05 $-112.20
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:55am ET $188.38 67 $12,621.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:50am ET $182.51 67 $12,228.17 $12,233.76 $-393.29
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 11:00am ET $185.08 66 $12,215.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET $178.88 66 $11,805.82 $11,824.30 $-409.46
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:10am ET $179.33 65 $11,656.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $184.32 65 $11,980.80 $12,148.65 +$324.35
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET $184.02 66 $12,145.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:40am ET $183.46 66 $12,108.36 $12,111.68 $-36.97
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $177.28 68 $12,055.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $171.91 68 $11,689.88 $11,746.52 $-365.16
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $177.15 66 $11,691.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 12:50pm ET $180.71 66 $11,926.86 $11,981.81 +$235.29
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 1:50pm ET $180.58 66 $11,918.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $175.12 66 $11,557.92 $11,621.45 $-360.36
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 3:40pm ET $174.13 66 $11,492.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:50am ET $168.45 66 $11,117.70 $11,246.57 $-374.88
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET $184.02 66 $12,145.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $172.59 66 $11,390.81 $10,492.05 $-754.52
(-6.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $175.44 59 $10,350.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $182.20 59 $10,749.81 $10,890.90 +$398.85
(+3.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET $186.66 58 $10,826.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 10:30am ET $188.00 58 $10,904.00 $10,968.62 +$77.72
(+0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:25am ET $186.48 58 $10,815.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:50am ET $190.66 58 $11,058.28 $11,211.06 +$242.44
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 11:40am ET $189.32 59 $11,169.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET $183.57 59 $10,830.63 $10,871.81 $-339.25
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:55am ET $183.23 59 $10,810.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:55am ET $182.19 59 $10,749.21 $10,810.42 $-61.39
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:15am ET $182.06 59 $10,741.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $186.42 59 $10,998.78 $11,067.53 +$257.11
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $187.48 59 $11,061.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET $182.78 59 $10,784.02 $10,790.23 $-277.30
(-2.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $187.48 59 $11,061.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $185.49 59 $10,943.91 $10,672.82 $-117.41
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:00pm ET $187.40 56 $10,494.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $188.16 56 $10,536.96 $10,715.38 +$42.56
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $185.91 57 $10,596.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $183.94 57 $10,484.58 $10,603.09 $-112.29
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $185.16 57 $10,554.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $189.10 57 $10,778.70 $10,827.39 +$224.30
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,827.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$827.39
Total Return: +8.27%
Back to Rebel Contraire