XRPUSD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 46 trades in period
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 14, 2025 | $98.88 | 1,184 | $10,564.92 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $1,180.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:40pm ET | $1.22 | 989 | $1,207.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $1.18 | 989 | $1,165.16 | $1,159.23 |
$-48.08 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $1.15 | 1,009 | $1,159.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET | $1.18 | 1,009 | $1,189.60 | $1,183.73 |
+$24.50 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:05pm ET | $1.27 | 932 | $1,183.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:10am ET | $1.30 | 932 | $1,214.19 | $1,208.19 |
+$24.47 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:15am ET | $1.32 | 916 | $1,208.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 5:15am ET | $1.35 | 916 | $1,236.31 | $1,230.20 |
+$22.00 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 5:55am ET | $1.36 | 907 | $1,230.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:10am ET | $1.41 | 907 | $1,275.39 | $1,269.12 |
+$38.93 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 8:25am ET | $1.40 | 907 | $1,269.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:35am ET | $1.43 | 907 | $1,295.88 | $1,289.47 |
+$20.35 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:00am ET | $1.41 | 911 | $1,289.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $1.44 | 911 | $1,315.93 | $1,309.41 |
+$19.94 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:35am ET | $1.51 | 868 | $1,309.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $1.46 | 868 | $1,266.88 | $1,260.44 |
$-48.98 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:50pm ET | $1.46 | 864 | $1,260.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 5:55pm ET | $1.49 | 864 | $1,285.66 | $1,279.30 |
+$18.86 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 6:15pm ET | $1.47 | 871 | $1,279.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:10am ET | $1.42 | 871 | $1,236.36 | $1,230.07 |
$-49.23 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:15am ET | $1.42 | 869 | $1,230.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 3:30am ET | $1.46 | 869 | $1,266.97 | $1,260.73 |
+$30.66 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 4:10am ET | $1.45 | 872 | $1,260.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 4:15am ET | $1.40 | 872 | $1,222.65 | $1,216.44 |
$-44.29 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 4:40am ET | $1.40 | 872 | $1,216.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $1.42 | 872 | $1,240.88 | $1,234.73 |
+$18.29 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $1.43 | 865 | $1,234.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:45am ET | $1.46 | 865 | $1,259.95 | $1,253.71 |
+$18.98 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $1.45 | 867 | $1,253.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $1.40 | 867 | $1,215.96 | $1,209.78 |
$-43.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $1.39 | 868 | $1,209.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1.43 | 868 | $1,236.55 | $1,230.44 |
+$20.65 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $1.42 | 865 | $1,230.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 12:40am ET | $1.38 | 865 | $1,190.50 | $1,190.50 |
$-45.99 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:15am ET | $1.36 | 875 | $1,190.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:05am ET | $1.39 | 875 | $1,214.47 | $1,214.47 |
+$17.96 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 11:45am ET | $1.35 | 901 | $1,214.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1.38 | 901 | $1,239.66 | $1,239.66 |
+$19.06 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 11:35am ET | $1.48 | 838 | $1,239.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $1.43 | 838 | $1,199.28 | $1,199.28 |
$-46.48 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $1.47 | 815 | $1,199.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $1.42 | 815 | $1,160.08 | $1,160.08 |
$-45.09 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 4:00pm ET | $1.42 | 817 | $1,160.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 8:40am ET | $1.38 | 817 | $1,125.16 | $1,125.16 |
$-40.64 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $1.40 | 804 | $1,125.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $1.43 | 804 | $1,150.47 | $1,150.47 |
+$19.62 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 11:20am ET | $1.43 | 806 | $1,150.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2026 9:25am ET | $1.46 | 806 | $1,176.42 | $1,176.42 |
+$20.13 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $1.46 | 808 | $1,176.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 7:40am ET | $1.41 | 808 | $1,139.40 | $1,139.40 |
$-42.81 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:35am ET | $1.40 | 811 | $1,139.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:00pm ET | $1.36 | 811 | $1,103.72 | $1,103.72 |
$-41.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:15pm ET | $1.34 | 822 | $1,103.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:00am ET | $1.37 | 822 | $1,126.35 | $1,126.35 |
+$17.05 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 2:55am ET | $1.37 | 822 | $1,126.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 6:20am ET | $1.40 | 822 | $1,153.81 | $1,153.81 |
+$21.76 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 6:30am ET | $1.40 | 824 | $1,153.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1.36 | 824 | $1,117.79 | $1,117.79 |
$-41.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $1.35 | 825 | $1,117.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 8:20pm ET | $1.39 | 825 | $1,143.30 | $1,143.30 |
+$19.86 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:25pm ET | $1.39 | 823 | $1,143.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 8:45am ET | $1.42 | 823 | $1,166.45 | $1,166.45 |
+$17.38 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $1.41 | 825 | $1,166.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $1.44 | 825 | $1,190.09 | $1,190.09 |
+$17.75 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $1.44 | 827 | $1,190.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1.47 | 827 | $1,217.58 | $1,217.58 |
+$21.47 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 12:35pm ET | $1.47 | 830 | $1,217.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 6:40pm ET | $1.42 | 830 | $1,180.62 | $1,180.62 |
$-42.96 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 12:35pm ET | $1.47 | 830 | $1,217.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $1.42 | 830 | $1,178.33 | $1,141.37 |
$-45.24 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $1.42 | 804 | $1,141.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 7:45am ET | $1.38 | 804 | $1,106.02 | $1,106.02 |
$-40.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 8:35am ET | $1.37 | 808 | $1,106.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET | $1.32 | 808 | $1,066.52 | $1,066.52 |
$-44.93 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:55am ET | $1.30 | 822 | $1,066.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 8:50am ET | $1.33 | 822 | $1,091.23 | $1,091.23 |
+$19.31 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $1.32 | 828 | $1,091.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $1.35 | 828 | $1,115.42 | $1,115.42 |
+$18.67 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1.34 | 832 | $1,115.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 3:20pm ET | $1.37 | 832 | $1,140.14 | $1,140.14 |
+$19.08 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 4:05pm ET | $1.37 | 832 | $1,140.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 8:50pm ET | $1.41 | 832 | $1,170.72 | $1,170.72 |
+$24.80 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 10:05pm ET | $1.42 | 822 | $1,170.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 3:55am ET | $1.38 | 822 | $1,134.15 | $1,134.15 |
$-42.33 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 5:45am ET | $1.37 | 825 | $1,134.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $1.41 | 825 | $1,163.87 | $1,163.87 |
+$23.97 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 11:55am ET | $1.41 | 826 | $1,163.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 11:50pm ET | $1.37 | 826 | $1,127.82 | $1,127.82 |
$-41.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.9h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 12:40am ET | $1.37 | 824 | $1,127.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:55am ET | $1.40 | 824 | $1,151.26 | $1,151.26 |
+$17.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 5:20am ET | $1.41 | 817 | $1,151.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $1.44 | 817 | $1,178.97 | $1,178.97 |
+$21.88 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
+ 1 refund ($10,000)