ARKK Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-01-26 to present • 43 trades in period
-28.41%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,193.01
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$11,444.33
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
11.6/100
× Confidence 0.95
= 10.9
30-Day Momentum
32
+6.1%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 47.8
Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,238
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
125 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,444.33
Current Value
$8,193.01
Period P&L
$-3,251.32
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.28
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
20 /
23
Best Trade
+5.59%
Worst Trade
-4.62%
Avg Trade Return
-0.77%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$765,413.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,251.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,251.32
Gross Return
-28.41%
Net Return (after fees)
-28.41%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 125 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,444.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $81.46 | 142 | $11,566.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:25am ET | $79.34 | 142 | $11,266.27 | $11,343.50 |
$-300.34 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 11:30am ET | $76.96 | 147 | $11,313.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $74.49 | 147 | $10,950.03 | $10,980.41 |
$-363.09 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:10am ET | $73.78 | 148 | $10,919.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $71.39 | 148 | $10,564.98 | $10,625.95 |
$-354.46 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $68.42 | 155 | $10,605.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $66.28 | 155 | $10,272.63 | $10,293.48 |
$-332.47 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:55pm ET | $72.29 | 142 | $10,265.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $73.03 | 142 | $10,370.26 | $10,397.85 |
+$104.37 (+1.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
23.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $68.47 | 151 | $10,338.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $70.17 | 151 | $10,595.67 | $10,654.55 |
+$256.70 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $72.21 | 147 | $10,614.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $70.01 | 147 | $10,292.20 | $10,331.89 |
$-322.66 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $70.67 | 146 | $10,317.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $72.21 | 146 | $10,541.93 | $10,556.00 |
+$224.11 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:00pm ET | $73.99 | 142 | $10,505.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.01 | 142 | $10,083.42 | $10,133.55 |
$-422.45 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $69.98 | 144 | $10,077.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $71.45 | 144 | $10,288.80 | $10,345.23 |
+$211.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $74.50 | 138 | $10,281.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.06 | 138 | $9,944.28 | $10,008.51 |
$-336.72 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $72.44 | 138 | $9,996.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:25pm ET | $73.92 | 138 | $10,200.96 | $10,212.75 |
+$204.24 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $72.84 | 140 | $10,197.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 3:50pm ET | $70.61 | 140 | $9,885.40 | $9,900.55 |
$-312.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $72.26 | 137 | $9,899.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.83 | 137 | $9,566.71 | $9,567.64 |
$-332.91 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.74 | 135 | $9,549.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:35pm ET | $68.59 | 135 | $9,259.65 | $9,277.39 |
$-290.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $71.10 | 130 | $9,243.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $68.95 | 130 | $8,963.50 | $8,997.89 |
$-279.50 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $70.08 | 128 | $8,970.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $67.96 | 128 | $8,698.88 | $8,726.53 |
$-271.36 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:20pm ET | $64.82 | 134 | $8,685.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:35pm ET | $66.22 | 134 | $8,873.48 | $8,914.13 |
+$187.60 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:15pm ET | $69.25 | 128 | $8,864.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $66.05 | 128 | $8,454.40 | $8,504.53 |
$-409.60 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $69.24 | 122 | $8,447.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $67.03 | 122 | $8,177.66 | $8,234.91 |
$-269.62 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $70.72 | 116 | $8,203.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $68.54 | 116 | $7,950.64 | $7,982.03 |
$-252.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:35am ET | $69.09 | 115 | $7,945.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $70.76 | 115 | $8,137.97 | $8,174.66 |
+$192.63 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $74.12 | 110 | $8,153.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.65 | 110 | $8,321.50 | $8,342.96 |
+$168.30 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $75.90 | 109 | $8,273.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:50am ET | $77.42 | 109 | $8,438.78 | $8,508.64 |
+$165.68 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $79.90 | 106 | $8,469.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $77.31 | 106 | $8,194.86 | $8,234.10 |
$-274.54 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $77.96 | 105 | $8,185.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $75.53 | 105 | $7,930.65 | $7,978.95 |
$-255.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $76.93 | 103 | $7,923.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.14 | 103 | $7,636.42 | $7,691.58 |
$-287.37 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:25pm ET | $75.44 | 101 | $7,619.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $77.06 | 101 | $7,783.06 | $7,855.20 |
+$163.62 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $77.78 | 100 | $7,778.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $79.37 | 100 | $7,937.00 | $8,014.20 |
+$159.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 3:25pm ET | $77.41 | 103 | $7,973.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $79.00 | 103 | $8,137.00 | $8,177.97 |
+$163.77 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $78.26 | 104 | $8,139.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $75.88 | 104 | $7,891.52 | $7,930.45 |
$-247.52 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $74.73 | 106 | $7,921.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $76.30 | 106 | $8,087.80 | $8,096.87 |
+$166.42 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 1:55pm ET | $77.16 | 104 | $8,024.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 1:55pm ET | $77.95 | 104 | $8,106.80 | $8,179.03 |
+$82.16 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 2:55pm ET | $80.75 | 101 | $8,156.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $82.38 | 101 | $8,319.88 | $8,342.65 |
+$163.62 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 12:15pm ET | $81.13 | 102 | $8,275.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.48 | 102 | $8,005.16 | $8,072.55 |
$-270.10 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $80.43 | 100 | $8,043.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $77.95 | 100 | $7,795.00 | $7,824.55 |
$-248.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $75.82 | 103 | $7,809.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $73.27 | 103 | $7,546.81 | $7,561.90 |
$-262.65 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:10pm ET | $74.38 | 101 | $7,512.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $75.89 | 101 | $7,664.39 | $7,713.91 |
+$152.01 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $79.74 | 96 | $7,654.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.83 | 96 | $7,663.35 | $7,722.70 |
+$8.79 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $76.92 | 100 | $7,692.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $78.70 | 100 | $7,870.00 | $7,900.70 |
+$178.00 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $80.46 | 98 | $7,885.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $82.12 | 98 | $8,047.76 | $8,062.89 |
+$162.19 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $76.92 | 100 | $7,692.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.22 | 100 | $8,122.00 | $8,492.89 |
+$430.00 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $82.76 | 102 | $8,441.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.82 | 102 | $8,141.64 | $8,193.01 |
$-299.88 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,193.01
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,806.99
Total Return:
-18.07%