AXP Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 38 trades in period
+18.37%
Last 6 Months Return
$19,913.43
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$16,822.98
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
59
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
25.2/35
Total Return
16.6/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
59.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 59.3
30-Day Momentum
4
-6.9%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-55 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$16,822.98
Current Value
$19,913.43
Period P&L
$3,090.44
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
21 /
17
Best Trade
+5.20%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
+0.48%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,479,440.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,090.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,090.44
Gross Return
+18.37%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.37%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $16,822.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $299.23 | 56 | $16,757.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.29 | 56 | $17,096.24 | $17,162.07 |
+$339.08 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $299.70 | 57 | $17,082.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $299.19 | 57 | $17,053.83 | $17,133.00 |
$-29.07 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:20am ET | $301.00 | 56 | $16,856.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $303.38 | 56 | $16,989.28 | $17,266.28 |
+$133.28 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $303.87 | 56 | $17,016.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $319.66 | 56 | $17,900.96 | $18,150.52 |
+$884.24 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $314.05 | 57 | $17,900.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 2:05pm ET | $320.61 | 57 | $18,275.05 | $18,524.73 |
+$374.21 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:15pm ET | $327.49 | 56 | $18,339.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $334.93 | 56 | $18,756.36 | $18,941.65 |
+$416.92 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $332.04 | 57 | $18,926.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $322.02 | 57 | $18,355.14 | $18,370.51 |
$-571.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $314.87 | 58 | $18,262.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $322.91 | 58 | $18,728.78 | $18,836.83 |
+$466.32 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $314.29 | 59 | $18,543.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:30am ET | $320.86 | 59 | $18,930.74 | $19,224.46 |
+$387.63 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $321.64 | 59 | $18,976.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $321.37 | 59 | $18,960.83 | $19,208.53 |
$-15.93 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $320.07 | 60 | $19,203.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:55am ET | $313.55 | 60 | $18,813.00 | $18,817.63 |
$-390.90 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 12:55pm ET | $309.35 | 60 | $18,561.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $315.54 | 60 | $18,932.40 | $19,189.03 |
+$371.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $311.80 | 61 | $19,019.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $314.04 | 61 | $19,156.44 | $19,325.97 |
+$136.94 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $313.53 | 61 | $19,125.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $311.91 | 61 | $19,026.51 | $19,227.15 |
$-98.82 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $310.89 | 61 | $18,964.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $301.27 | 61 | $18,377.17 | $18,639.72 |
$-587.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $312.31 | 59 | $18,426.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $321.64 | 59 | $18,976.47 | $19,189.90 |
+$550.18 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $317.30 | 60 | $19,038.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $323.66 | 60 | $19,419.60 | $19,571.20 |
+$381.30 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:10pm ET | $338.27 | 57 | $19,281.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $345.10 | 57 | $19,670.70 | $19,960.51 |
+$389.31 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 11:15am ET | $341.30 | 58 | $19,795.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 11:15am ET | $337.86 | 58 | $19,596.17 | $19,761.28 |
$-199.23 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:50am ET | $343.02 | 57 | $19,552.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:05am ET | $350.92 | 57 | $20,002.44 | $20,211.58 |
+$450.30 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:15pm ET | $342.92 | 58 | $19,889.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 12:00pm ET | $349.83 | 58 | $20,290.28 | $20,612.50 |
+$400.92 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $352.51 | 58 | $20,445.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $341.89 | 58 | $19,829.62 | $19,996.83 |
$-615.67 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $342.67 | 58 | $19,874.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $351.83 | 58 | $20,406.43 | $20,528.40 |
+$531.57 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $356.35 | 57 | $20,311.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.27 | 57 | $20,250.39 | $20,466.84 |
$-61.56 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $351.28 | 58 | $20,374.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $339.08 | 58 | $19,666.35 | $19,758.95 |
$-707.89 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $320.41 | 61 | $19,545.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.64 | 61 | $20,230.34 | $20,444.28 |
+$685.33 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $334.19 | 61 | $20,385.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.04 | 61 | $20,742.14 | $20,800.83 |
+$356.55 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $344.54 | 60 | $20,672.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $339.98 | 60 | $20,398.50 | $20,526.93 |
$-273.90 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $340.52 | 60 | $20,431.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.20 | 60 | $20,412.00 | $20,507.43 |
$-19.50 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:25am ET | $337.52 | 60 | $20,251.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:05am ET | $344.36 | 60 | $20,661.60 | $20,917.83 |
+$410.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 11:15am ET | $333.90 | 62 | $20,701.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $341.46 | 62 | $21,170.83 | $21,386.85 |
+$469.02 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 11:15am ET | $333.90 | 62 | $20,701.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $335.86 | 62 | $20,823.01 | $21,508.06 |
+$121.21 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.02 | 64 | $21,377.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $326.68 | 64 | $20,907.52 | $21,038.30 |
$-469.76 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.02 | 64 | $21,377.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $330.65 | 64 | $21,161.60 | $20,822.62 |
$-215.68 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $326.36 | 63 | $20,560.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $323.01 | 63 | $20,349.63 | $20,611.57 |
$-211.05 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 12:25pm ET | $320.89 | 64 | $20,536.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:50pm ET | $328.12 | 64 | $20,999.68 | $21,074.29 |
+$462.72 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 2:25pm ET | $324.88 | 64 | $20,792.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $313.46 | 64 | $20,061.76 | $20,343.73 |
$-730.56 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 3:25pm ET | $312.55 | 65 | $20,315.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:25pm ET | $305.93 | 65 | $19,885.45 | $19,913.43 |
$-430.30 (-2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,913.43
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,913.43
Total Return:
+99.13%