HD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 43 trades in period
-26.32%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,167.06
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$11,085.22
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
8.6/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 8.5
30-Day Momentum
3
-12.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,085.22
Current Value
$8,167.06
Period P&L
$-2,918.15
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.26
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
17 /
26
Best Trade
+5.50%
Worst Trade
-5.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.68%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$838,609.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,918.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,918.15
Gross Return
-26.32%
Net Return (after fees)
-26.32%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,085.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $331.57 | 33 | $10,941.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET | $321.60 | 33 | $10,612.64 | $10,756.20 |
$-329.01 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:30pm ET | $324.73 | 33 | $10,716.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $332.00 | 33 | $10,956.00 | $10,996.11 |
+$239.91 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $320.51 | 34 | $10,897.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $319.52 | 34 | $10,863.68 | $10,962.45 |
$-33.66 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $336.05 | 32 | $10,753.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $333.13 | 32 | $10,660.00 | $10,868.84 |
$-93.61 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $341.13 | 31 | $10,575.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $348.52 | 31 | $10,804.12 | $11,097.93 |
+$229.09 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $345.61 | 32 | $11,059.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $352.54 | 32 | $11,281.28 | $11,319.69 |
+$221.76 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $341.65 | 33 | $11,274.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $333.85 | 33 | $11,017.05 | $11,062.29 |
$-257.40 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:35pm ET | $329.80 | 33 | $10,883.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $319.85 | 33 | $10,555.05 | $10,734.10 |
$-328.19 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $327.77 | 32 | $10,488.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $317.93 | 32 | $10,173.63 | $10,419.25 |
$-314.85 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $313.78 | 33 | $10,354.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $322.02 | 33 | $10,626.66 | $10,691.17 |
+$271.92 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $324.93 | 32 | $10,397.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $313.74 | 32 | $10,039.68 | $10,333.09 |
$-358.08 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $310.47 | 33 | $10,245.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $301.06 | 33 | $9,934.98 | $10,022.56 |
$-310.53 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $304.09 | 32 | $9,730.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $291.12 | 32 | $9,315.84 | $9,607.52 |
$-415.04 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $300.42 | 31 | $9,312.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $306.78 | 31 | $9,510.18 | $9,804.83 |
+$197.31 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $310.11 | 31 | $9,613.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $310.04 | 31 | $9,611.24 | $9,802.66 |
$-2.17 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 11:10am ET | $317.77 | 30 | $9,533.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 11:10am ET | $308.72 | 30 | $9,261.60 | $9,531.16 |
$-271.50 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $310.21 | 30 | $9,306.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $307.59 | 30 | $9,227.70 | $9,452.41 |
$-78.75 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $319.18 | 29 | $9,256.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:35pm ET | $326.27 | 29 | $9,461.83 | $9,658.02 |
+$205.61 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:35pm ET | $327.81 | 29 | $9,506.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.50 | 29 | $9,700.50 | $9,852.03 |
+$194.01 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $336.94 | 29 | $9,771.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $326.57 | 29 | $9,470.53 | $9,551.23 |
$-300.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $332.98 | 28 | $9,323.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 3:40pm ET | $324.46 | 28 | $9,084.88 | $9,312.81 |
$-238.42 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $340.14 | 27 | $9,183.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $348.14 | 27 | $9,399.78 | $9,528.68 |
+$215.87 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:05pm ET | $349.78 | 27 | $9,444.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $356.96 | 27 | $9,637.92 | $9,722.54 |
+$193.86 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $340.14 | 27 | $9,183.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $358.85 | 27 | $9,688.95 | $10,227.58 |
+$505.04 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $349.44 | 29 | $10,133.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.23 | 29 | $9,779.53 | $9,873.35 |
$-354.23 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $340.23 | 29 | $9,866.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 12:00pm ET | $337.24 | 29 | $9,779.96 | $9,786.64 |
$-86.71 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $342.97 | 28 | $9,603.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $351.77 | 28 | $9,849.70 | $10,033.18 |
+$246.54 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $334.10 | 30 | $10,022.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 1:30pm ET | $323.35 | 30 | $9,700.50 | $9,710.83 |
$-322.35 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 1:50pm ET | $330.83 | 29 | $9,594.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $341.08 | 29 | $9,891.18 | $10,007.79 |
+$296.96 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:25am ET | $346.77 | 28 | $9,709.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.02 | 28 | $9,352.48 | $9,650.57 |
$-357.22 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $331.26 | 29 | $9,606.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $339.80 | 29 | $9,854.11 | $9,898.14 |
+$247.57 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $340.59 | 29 | $9,877.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 11:55am ET | $347.45 | 29 | $10,076.05 | $10,097.08 |
+$198.94 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 12:00pm ET | $351.14 | 28 | $9,832.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $349.08 | 28 | $9,774.24 | $10,039.26 |
$-57.82 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 12:25pm ET | $357.07 | 28 | $9,997.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $344.76 | 28 | $9,653.28 | $9,694.58 |
$-344.68 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $345.59 | 28 | $9,676.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $333.88 | 28 | $9,348.50 | $9,366.70 |
$-327.88 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:25am ET | $340.46 | 27 | $9,192.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $347.74 | 27 | $9,388.98 | $9,563.26 |
+$196.56 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $335.36 | 28 | $9,390.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 10:05am ET | $336.17 | 28 | $9,412.90 | $9,585.94 |
+$22.68 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $336.46 | 28 | $9,420.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 11:55am ET | $329.01 | 28 | $9,212.28 | $9,377.34 |
$-208.60 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $336.46 | 28 | $9,420.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $319.06 | 28 | $8,933.73 | $8,890.18 |
$-487.16 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $320.47 | 27 | $8,652.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $310.02 | 27 | $8,370.54 | $8,608.03 |
$-282.15 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $307.93 | 27 | $8,314.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $310.62 | 27 | $8,386.74 | $8,680.52 |
+$72.49 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $306.48 | 28 | $8,581.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $296.91 | 28 | $8,313.48 | $8,412.56 |
$-267.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $300.63 | 27 | $8,117.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 11:15am ET | $291.54 | 27 | $7,871.58 | $8,167.06 |
$-245.50 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,167.06
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,832.94
Total Return:
-18.33%