IBM Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 56 trades in period
-55.46%
Last 6 Months Return
$6,702.68
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$15,048.00
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
12.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 12.3
30-Day Momentum
9
-5.7%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$15,048.00
Current Value
$6,702.68
Period P&L
$-8,345.25
Max Drawdown
-11.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
56
Winners / Losers
30 /
26
Best Trade
+5.34%
Worst Trade
-25.97%
Avg Trade Return
-1.05%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,377,225.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-8,345.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$-8,345.25
Gross Return
-55.46%
Net Return (after fees)
-55.46%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 56 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $15,048.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.41 | 61 | $14,970.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $237.80 | 61 | $14,505.80 | $14,618.21 |
$-464.21 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $237.63 | 61 | $14,495.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.43 | 61 | $14,788.53 | $14,911.31 |
+$293.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.32 | 61 | $14,781.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 2:50pm ET | $247.32 | 61 | $15,086.82 | $15,216.61 |
+$305.30 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $242.69 | 62 | $15,046.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.95 | 62 | $15,434.90 | $15,604.90 |
+$388.29 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $236.43 | 66 | $15,604.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $241.20 | 66 | $15,918.87 | $15,919.39 |
+$314.49 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:25am ET | $243.82 | 65 | $15,848.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $249.01 | 65 | $16,185.65 | $16,256.74 |
+$337.35 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $252.23 | 64 | $16,142.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $258.02 | 64 | $16,513.28 | $16,627.36 |
+$370.62 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $255.86 | 64 | $16,375.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:05pm ET | $247.95 | 64 | $15,868.80 | $16,121.12 |
$-506.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 2:50pm ET | $230.88 | 69 | $15,930.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:50pm ET | $232.34 | 69 | $16,031.12 | $16,221.86 |
+$100.74 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $227.88 | 71 | $16,179.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $235.00 | 71 | $16,685.00 | $16,727.74 |
+$505.88 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $231.74 | 72 | $16,685.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $224.71 | 72 | $16,179.12 | $16,221.58 |
$-506.16 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $230.18 | 70 | $16,112.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $223.00 | 70 | $15,610.00 | $15,718.98 |
$-502.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:25pm ET | $220.01 | 71 | $15,620.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $213.36 | 71 | $15,148.56 | $15,246.83 |
$-472.15 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $218.29 | 69 | $15,062.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 1:45pm ET | $223.00 | 69 | $15,387.00 | $15,571.82 |
+$324.99 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 3:20pm ET | $223.59 | 69 | $15,427.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.72 | 69 | $15,988.68 | $16,133.13 |
+$561.31 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $258.15 | 62 | $16,005.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $247.18 | 62 | $15,325.31 | $15,453.14 |
$-679.99 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $256.09 | 60 | $15,365.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $262.73 | 60 | $15,763.80 | $15,851.54 |
+$398.40 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $284.84 | 55 | $15,666.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:15am ET | $291.28 | 55 | $16,020.53 | $16,205.87 |
+$354.33 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 12:30pm ET | $324.85 | 49 | $15,917.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $313.34 | 49 | $15,353.66 | $15,641.75 |
$-564.12 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $310.09 | 50 | $15,504.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $298.06 | 50 | $14,903.00 | $15,040.29 |
$-601.46 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $283.36 | 53 | $15,018.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $274.73 | 53 | $14,560.69 | $14,582.79 |
$-457.50 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $275.11 | 53 | $14,580.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.50 | 53 | $14,124.50 | $14,126.46 |
$-456.33 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $269.16 | 52 | $13,996.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $274.69 | 52 | $14,283.88 | $14,414.02 |
+$287.56 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:10pm ET | $268.49 | 53 | $14,229.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $274.26 | 53 | $14,535.78 | $14,719.82 |
+$305.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $265.68 | 55 | $14,612.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.46 | 55 | $13,775.30 | $13,882.45 |
$-837.37 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.24 | 55 | $13,653.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.50 | 55 | $14,382.50 | $14,611.75 |
+$729.30 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $257.99 | 56 | $14,447.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $263.20 | 56 | $14,739.48 | $14,903.79 |
+$292.04 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 12:20pm ET | $259.99 | 57 | $14,819.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $265.20 | 57 | $15,116.40 | $15,200.48 |
+$296.69 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $273.95 | 55 | $15,067.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $279.68 | 55 | $15,382.26 | $15,515.48 |
+$315.01 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 1:55pm ET | $288.65 | 53 | $15,298.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $294.77 | 53 | $15,622.81 | $15,839.65 |
+$324.17 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $301.65 | 52 | $15,685.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $307.94 | 52 | $16,012.88 | $16,166.73 |
+$327.08 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 12:55pm ET | $302.45 | 53 | $16,030.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $285.37 | 53 | $15,124.48 | $15,261.09 |
$-905.64 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $294.29 | 51 | $15,008.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.85 | 51 | $11,110.35 | $11,362.91 |
$-3,898.18 (-26.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $220.40 | 51 | $11,240.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $213.32 | 51 | $10,879.57 | $11,002.08 |
$-360.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $217.59 | 50 | $10,879.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $210.52 | 50 | $10,526.00 | $10,648.52 |
$-353.56 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $215.05 | 49 | $10,537.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 12:20pm ET | $208.54 | 49 | $10,218.46 | $10,329.53 |
$-318.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 1:10pm ET | $204.66 | 50 | $10,233.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.87 | 50 | $10,493.25 | $10,589.78 |
+$260.25 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $218.50 | 48 | $10,488.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $222.95 | 48 | $10,701.60 | $10,803.38 |
+$213.60 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $294.29 | 51 | $15,008.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $224.09 | 51 | $11,428.59 | $7,223.43 |
$-3,579.95 (-23.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $218.17 | 33 | $7,199.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 3:40pm ET | $222.91 | 33 | $7,356.03 | $7,379.85 |
+$156.42 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.6h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $227.19 | 32 | $7,270.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $231.75 | 32 | $7,416.00 | $7,525.77 |
+$145.92 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 2:00pm ET | $237.65 | 31 | $7,367.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $229.90 | 31 | $7,126.90 | $7,285.67 |
$-240.10 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $234.79 | 31 | $7,278.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $239.73 | 31 | $7,431.63 | $7,438.65 |
+$152.98 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $239.69 | 31 | $7,430.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $231.95 | 31 | $7,190.45 | $7,198.71 |
$-239.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $237.57 | 30 | $7,127.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $229.73 | 30 | $6,891.75 | $6,963.21 |
$-235.50 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:50pm ET | $233.50 | 29 | $6,771.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:00am ET | $238.43 | 29 | $6,914.33 | $7,106.04 |
+$142.83 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 12:05pm ET | $236.86 | 30 | $7,105.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 12:05pm ET | $232.71 | 30 | $6,981.30 | $6,981.54 |
$-124.50 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $230.01 | 30 | $6,900.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $234.66 | 30 | $7,039.80 | $7,121.04 |
+$139.50 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $236.74 | 30 | $7,102.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $229.33 | 30 | $6,879.90 | $6,898.74 |
$-222.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $236.74 | 30 | $7,102.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $234.68 | 30 | $7,040.40 | $6,836.94 |
$-61.80 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.1d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $235.50 | 29 | $6,829.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:25pm ET | $233.82 | 29 | $6,780.64 | $6,788.08 |
$-48.86 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $236.34 | 28 | $6,617.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:10am ET | $241.73 | 28 | $6,768.37 | $6,938.93 |
+$150.85 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $244.93 | 28 | $6,857.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:10pm ET | $250.51 | 28 | $7,014.42 | $7,095.45 |
+$156.52 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 1:20pm ET | $251.19 | 28 | $7,033.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.02 | 28 | $6,720.56 | $6,782.69 |
$-312.76 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $240.86 | 28 | $6,744.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $233.32 | 28 | $6,532.96 | $6,571.57 |
$-211.12 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 56 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $231.75 | 28 | $6,489.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $236.43 | 28 | $6,620.11 | $6,702.68 |
+$131.11 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,702.68
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,297.32
Total Return:
-32.97%