ISRG Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 45 trades in period
-23.94%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,852.39
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$11,638.14
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
12.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.9
30-Day Momentum
63
+9.1%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 72.6
Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+51 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,638.14
Current Value
$8,852.39
Period P&L
$-2,785.78
Max Drawdown
-39.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
21 /
24
Best Trade
+5.79%
Worst Trade
-14.43%
Avg Trade Return
-0.53%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$817,336.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,785.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,785.78
Gross Return
-23.94%
Net Return (after fees)
-23.94%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,638.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $473.75 | 24 | $11,370.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $459.52 | 24 | $11,028.60 | $11,204.86 |
$-341.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET | $454.74 | 24 | $10,913.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $465.48 | 24 | $11,171.45 | $11,462.55 |
+$257.69 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $455.33 | 25 | $11,383.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $451.01 | 25 | $11,275.13 | $11,354.43 |
$-108.12 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $465.77 | 24 | $11,178.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $451.21 | 24 | $10,829.16 | $11,005.23 |
$-349.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $452.21 | 24 | $10,853.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $467.54 | 24 | $11,220.84 | $11,372.91 |
+$367.68 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:25am ET | $470.63 | 24 | $11,295.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $456.14 | 24 | $10,947.48 | $11,025.27 |
$-347.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $470.36 | 23 | $10,818.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $456.21 | 23 | $10,492.83 | $10,699.71 |
$-325.56 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:00pm ET | $485.32 | 22 | $10,677.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $473.82 | 22 | $10,424.04 | $10,446.71 |
$-253.00 (-2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:20pm ET | $463.93 | 22 | $10,206.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $456.98 | 22 | $10,053.56 | $10,293.70 |
$-153.01 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $456.09 | 22 | $10,033.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $444.50 | 22 | $9,779.00 | $10,038.72 |
$-254.98 (-2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 12:50pm ET | $434.32 | 23 | $9,989.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 3:10pm ET | $420.89 | 23 | $9,680.47 | $9,729.83 |
$-308.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $446.11 | 21 | $9,368.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $441.03 | 21 | $9,261.64 | $9,623.16 |
$-106.67 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $436.17 | 22 | $9,595.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $422.45 | 22 | $9,293.90 | $9,321.32 |
$-301.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 2:50pm ET | $423.43 | 22 | $9,315.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $406.57 | 22 | $8,944.43 | $8,950.18 |
$-371.14 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $400.95 | 22 | $8,820.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $414.59 | 22 | $9,120.98 | $9,250.37 |
+$300.19 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $422.53 | 21 | $8,873.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $422.37 | 21 | $8,869.77 | $9,247.01 |
$-3.36 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $410.57 | 22 | $9,032.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $419.42 | 22 | $9,227.24 | $9,441.67 |
+$194.66 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $419.26 | 22 | $9,223.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $405.06 | 22 | $8,911.32 | $9,129.27 |
$-312.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:00pm ET | $406.51 | 22 | $8,943.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $401.11 | 22 | $8,824.42 | $9,010.47 |
$-118.80 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 3:15pm ET | $403.42 | 22 | $8,875.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:15am ET | $411.58 | 22 | $9,054.76 | $9,189.99 |
+$179.52 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $405.10 | 22 | $8,912.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $413.61 | 22 | $9,099.53 | $9,377.32 |
+$187.33 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 12:00pm ET | $401.01 | 23 | $9,223.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $410.98 | 23 | $9,452.54 | $9,606.74 |
+$229.43 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $437.82 | 21 | $9,194.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $421.90 | 21 | $8,859.90 | $9,272.42 |
$-334.32 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $410.36 | 22 | $9,027.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $388.79 | 22 | $8,553.38 | $8,797.95 |
$-474.47 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $391.38 | 22 | $8,610.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.00 | 22 | $8,800.00 | $8,987.59 |
+$189.64 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $357.81 | 25 | $8,945.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:35pm ET | $346.83 | 25 | $8,670.75 | $8,713.09 |
$-274.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $358.05 | 24 | $8,593.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $346.43 | 24 | $8,314.44 | $8,434.33 |
$-278.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $331.24 | 25 | $8,281.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $338.35 | 25 | $8,458.75 | $8,612.08 |
+$177.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $354.77 | 24 | $8,514.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.98 | 24 | $8,975.40 | $9,073.00 |
+$460.92 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $410.36 | 22 | $9,027.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $351.13 | 22 | $7,724.75 | $7,769.90 |
$-1,303.10 (-14.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $350.76 | 22 | $7,716.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.06 | 22 | $8,163.32 | $8,216.50 |
+$446.60 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $368.34 | 22 | $8,103.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $375.89 | 22 | $8,269.69 | $8,382.71 |
+$166.21 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $373.78 | 22 | $8,223.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $382.94 | 22 | $8,424.68 | $8,584.23 |
+$201.52 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $399.45 | 21 | $8,388.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $391.30 | 21 | $8,217.40 | $8,413.18 |
$-171.05 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:25am ET | $397.95 | 21 | $8,356.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $383.58 | 21 | $8,055.18 | $8,111.41 |
$-301.77 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:10pm ET | $379.48 | 21 | $7,968.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 10:30am ET | $367.96 | 21 | $7,727.16 | $7,869.59 |
$-241.82 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET | $367.98 | 21 | $7,727.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $372.29 | 21 | $7,818.09 | $7,960.10 |
+$90.51 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $370.41 | 21 | $7,778.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $380.45 | 21 | $7,989.45 | $8,170.94 |
+$210.84 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET | $367.98 | 21 | $7,727.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $368.31 | 21 | $7,734.51 | $8,177.87 |
+$6.93 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $365.71 | 22 | $8,045.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $354.34 | 22 | $7,795.48 | $7,927.62 |
$-250.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 1:45pm ET | $350.88 | 22 | $7,719.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $358.72 | 22 | $7,891.84 | $8,100.10 |
+$172.48 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $364.95 | 22 | $8,028.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.80 | 22 | $8,223.60 | $8,294.80 |
+$194.70 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $372.03 | 22 | $8,184.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $381.71 | 22 | $8,397.62 | $8,507.76 |
+$212.96 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $378.59 | 22 | $8,328.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $386.34 | 22 | $8,499.48 | $8,678.26 |
+$170.50 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 1:35pm ET | $391.79 | 22 | $8,619.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 12:50pm ET | $399.70 | 22 | $8,793.51 | $8,852.39 |
+$174.13 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,852.39
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,147.61
Total Return:
-11.48%