IWM Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 33 trades in period
+0.27%
Last 6 Months Return
$13,995.45
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$13,957.93
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.2%
5d Trend
-1.3%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
63%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
39
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.7/35
Total Return
13.4/25
Win Rate
5.4/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality
39.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 38.8
30-Day Momentum
53
+10.8%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
5
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 75.8
Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,213
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,957.93
Current Value
$13,995.45
Period P&L
$37.55
Max Drawdown
-11.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
17 /
16
Best Trade
+4.04%
Worst Trade
-3.76%
Avg Trade Return
-0.00%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$870,539.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$37.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$37.55
Gross Return
+0.27%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.27%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IWM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,957.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:50am ET | $243.18 | 58 | $14,104.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $244.63 | 58 | $14,188.54 | $14,190.50 |
+$84.39 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $243.37 | 58 | $14,115.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $234.21 | 58 | $13,584.18 | $13,659.22 |
$-531.28 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 10:05am ET | $236.86 | 57 | $13,501.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 3:40pm ET | $229.42 | 57 | $13,076.94 | $13,235.14 |
$-424.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 1:00pm ET | $239.81 | 55 | $13,189.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 12:30pm ET | $244.82 | 55 | $13,465.10 | $13,510.69 |
+$275.55 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 1:25pm ET | $247.45 | 54 | $13,362.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 1:25pm ET | $247.24 | 54 | $13,350.96 | $13,499.35 |
$-11.34 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 1:30pm ET | $245.99 | 54 | $13,283.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $251.00 | 54 | $13,554.00 | $13,769.90 |
+$270.55 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:00am ET | $251.75 | 54 | $13,594.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $251.28 | 54 | $13,569.12 | $13,744.52 |
$-25.38 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 2:50pm ET | $257.65 | 53 | $13,655.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 11:10am ET | $249.85 | 53 | $13,242.05 | $13,331.38 |
$-413.13 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 11:35am ET | $248.42 | 53 | $13,166.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:55am ET | $253.45 | 53 | $13,432.59 | $13,597.71 |
+$266.33 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $251.87 | 53 | $13,349.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $251.10 | 53 | $13,308.30 | $13,556.90 |
$-40.81 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:05am ET | $249.14 | 54 | $13,453.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.14 | 54 | $13,507.56 | $13,610.90 |
+$54.00 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.01 | 54 | $13,608.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $257.35 | 54 | $13,896.90 | $13,899.26 |
+$288.36 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $259.66 | 53 | $13,761.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $260.72 | 53 | $13,818.16 | $13,955.44 |
+$56.18 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:30pm ET | $266.39 | 52 | $13,852.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $262.06 | 52 | $13,627.12 | $13,730.06 |
$-225.38 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:10pm ET | $267.34 | 51 | $13,634.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:10pm ET | $264.21 | 51 | $13,474.46 | $13,570.43 |
$-159.63 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $264.47 | 51 | $13,487.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.05 | 51 | $13,262.55 | $13,345.01 |
$-225.42 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.7d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $263.72 | 50 | $13,186.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $255.77 | 50 | $12,788.62 | $12,947.62 |
$-397.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:25pm ET | $267.32 | 48 | $12,831.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $268.15 | 48 | $12,871.20 | $12,987.70 |
+$40.08 (+0.3%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $260.19 | 49 | $12,749.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $265.73 | 49 | $13,021.01 | $13,259.40 |
+$271.70 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:50am ET | $263.05 | 50 | $13,152.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 11:50am ET | $262.11 | 50 | $13,105.50 | $13,212.40 |
$-47.00 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:05pm ET | $264.58 | 49 | $12,964.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $262.88 | 49 | $12,881.12 | $13,129.10 |
$-83.30 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 2:35pm ET | $259.47 | 50 | $12,973.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.21 | 50 | $12,560.50 | $12,716.10 |
$-413.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $246.32 | 51 | $12,562.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:25pm ET | $252.75 | 51 | $12,890.25 | $13,044.03 |
+$327.93 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $253.32 | 51 | $12,919.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $245.68 | 51 | $12,529.68 | $12,654.39 |
$-389.64 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:50pm ET | $248.94 | 50 | $12,447.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:10pm ET | $241.40 | 50 | $12,070.01 | $12,277.39 |
$-377.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:10pm ET | $249.36 | 49 | $12,218.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.09 | 49 | $12,009.41 | $12,068.16 |
$-209.23 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:25am ET | $244.24 | 49 | $11,967.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.04 | 49 | $12,251.96 | $12,352.36 |
+$284.20 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.32 | 50 | $12,266.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $250.96 | 50 | $12,547.75 | $12,634.11 |
+$281.75 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $251.78 | 50 | $12,589.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.95 | 50 | $13,097.50 | $13,142.61 |
+$508.50 (+4.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $259.74 | 50 | $12,987.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $265.02 | 50 | $13,250.85 | $13,406.46 |
+$263.85 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET | $268.51 | 49 | $13,156.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $274.48 | 49 | $13,449.52 | $13,698.99 |
+$292.53 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $274.71 | 49 | $13,460.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $277.20 | 49 | $13,582.80 | $13,820.95 |
+$121.96 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $275.47 | 50 | $13,773.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $278.96 | 50 | $13,948.00 | $13,995.45 |
+$174.50 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,995.45
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,995.45
Total Return:
+39.95%