LLY Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 45 trades in period
-2.24%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,864.94
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$12,136.64
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
23
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
10.2/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
23.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 23.4
30-Day Momentum
5
-3.8%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,136.64
Current Value
$11,864.94
Period P&L
$-271.71
Max Drawdown
-33.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
24 /
21
Best Trade
+4.48%
Worst Trade
-4.13%
Avg Trade Return
+0.01%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,013,093.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-271.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$-271.71
Gross Return
-2.24%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.24%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,136.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:05pm ET | $901.53 | 13 | $11,719.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:35pm ET | $919.63 | 13 | $11,955.19 | $12,240.91 |
+$235.24 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:40pm ET | $901.68 | 13 | $11,721.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $923.65 | 13 | $12,007.45 | $12,526.52 |
+$285.61 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $932.61 | 13 | $12,123.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $951.48 | 13 | $12,369.24 | $12,771.76 |
+$245.24 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $934.46 | 13 | $12,147.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $902.29 | 13 | $11,729.77 | $12,353.55 |
$-418.21 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 12:20pm ET | $957.84 | 12 | $11,494.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:20pm ET | $930.47 | 12 | $11,165.64 | $12,025.11 |
$-328.44 (-2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:35pm ET | $935.60 | 12 | $11,227.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:55am ET | $904.37 | 12 | $10,852.44 | $11,650.35 |
$-374.76 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:55am ET | $899.79 | 12 | $10,797.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $919.93 | 12 | $11,039.16 | $11,891.97 |
+$241.62 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $913.46 | 13 | $11,874.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $884.98 | 13 | $11,504.74 | $11,521.73 |
$-370.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $917.75 | 12 | $11,013.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $889.48 | 12 | $10,673.76 | $11,182.49 |
$-339.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $878.43 | 12 | $10,541.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $851.74 | 12 | $10,220.88 | $10,862.15 |
$-320.34 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $932.26 | 11 | $10,254.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $973.99 | 11 | $10,713.94 | $11,321.29 |
+$459.14 (+4.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $961.27 | 11 | $10,573.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $980.80 | 11 | $10,788.80 | $11,536.12 |
+$214.83 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $992.53 | 11 | $10,917.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $962.66 | 11 | $10,589.26 | $11,207.55 |
$-328.57 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $985.55 | 11 | $10,841.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,005.53 | 11 | $11,060.78 | $11,427.22 |
+$219.67 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $998.52 | 11 | $10,983.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:45am ET | $997.09 | 11 | $10,967.99 | $11,411.49 |
$-15.73 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $1,015.60 | 11 | $11,171.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,036.58 | 11 | $11,402.43 | $11,642.32 |
+$230.83 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,059.09 | 10 | $10,590.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 12:15pm ET | $1,080.30 | 10 | $10,802.95 | $11,854.37 |
+$212.05 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $1,084.15 | 10 | $10,841.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,108.92 | 10 | $11,089.20 | $12,102.07 |
+$247.70 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,113.70 | 10 | $11,137.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 10:20am ET | $1,078.16 | 10 | $10,781.55 | $11,746.62 |
$-355.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1,065.34 | 11 | $11,718.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $1,087.85 | 11 | $11,966.35 | $11,994.23 |
+$247.61 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 12:20pm ET | $1,134.43 | 10 | $11,344.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,157.48 | 10 | $11,574.80 | $12,224.73 |
+$230.50 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1,159.75 | 10 | $11,597.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,133.25 | 10 | $11,332.50 | $11,959.73 |
$-265.00 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,121.21 | 10 | $11,212.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,106.42 | 10 | $11,064.15 | $11,811.78 |
$-147.95 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,102.11 | 10 | $11,021.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,128.85 | 10 | $11,288.50 | $12,079.18 |
+$267.40 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $1,140.39 | 10 | $11,403.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,175.28 | 10 | $11,752.80 | $12,428.08 |
+$348.90 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,218.31 | 10 | $12,183.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 1:05pm ET | $1,181.02 | 10 | $11,810.15 | $12,055.13 |
$-372.95 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,199.62 | 10 | $11,996.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,235.27 | 10 | $12,352.70 | $12,411.63 |
+$356.50 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,216.80 | 10 | $12,168.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,174.39 | 10 | $11,743.90 | $11,987.53 |
$-424.10 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,152.25 | 10 | $11,522.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,176.46 | 10 | $11,764.60 | $12,229.63 |
+$242.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $1,181.33 | 10 | $11,813.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $1,167.84 | 10 | $11,678.40 | $12,094.68 |
$-134.95 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $1,181.35 | 10 | $11,813.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,207.88 | 10 | $12,078.80 | $12,359.98 |
+$265.30 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,216.80 | 10 | $12,168.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,180.99 | 10 | $11,809.95 | $12,001.93 |
$-358.05 (-2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,145.00 | 10 | $11,450.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,177.99 | 10 | $11,779.90 | $12,331.83 |
+$329.90 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $1,181.29 | 10 | $11,812.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,208.96 | 10 | $12,089.63 | $12,608.57 |
+$276.74 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,225.03 | 10 | $12,250.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,182.53 | 10 | $11,825.25 | $12,183.48 |
$-425.09 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,180.26 | 10 | $11,802.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,206.51 | 10 | $12,065.10 | $12,446.02 |
+$262.54 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,277.10 | 9 | $11,493.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,234.50 | 9 | $11,110.50 | $12,062.62 |
$-383.40 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $1,242.57 | 9 | $11,183.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,191.30 | 9 | $10,721.70 | $11,601.19 |
$-461.43 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,179.76 | 9 | $10,617.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,176.61 | 9 | $10,589.49 | $11,572.84 |
$-28.35 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,179.84 | 9 | $10,618.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,143.06 | 9 | $10,287.54 | $11,241.82 |
$-331.02 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $1,142.67 | 9 | $10,284.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $1,131.25 | 9 | $10,181.25 | $11,139.04 |
$-102.78 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,125.25 | 9 | $10,127.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $1,148.95 | 9 | $10,340.55 | $11,352.34 |
+$213.30 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $1,142.20 | 9 | $10,279.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,144.00 | 9 | $10,296.00 | $11,368.50 |
+$16.16 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,141.69 | 9 | $10,275.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,168.26 | 9 | $10,514.34 | $11,607.63 |
+$239.13 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,165.00 | 9 | $10,485.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,193.59 | 9 | $10,742.31 | $11,864.94 |
+$257.31 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,864.94
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,864.94
Total Return:
+18.65%