MA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 36 trades in period
+7.78%
Last 6 Months Return
$15,405.88
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$14,293.73
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
44
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
15.5/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
44.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 44.3
30-Day Momentum
14
+2.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$14,293.73
Current Value
$15,405.88
Period P&L
$1,112.11
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
20 /
16
Best Trade
+4.67%
Worst Trade
-4.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.29%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$993,602.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,112.11
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,112.11
Gross Return
+7.78%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.78%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,293.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $497.10 | 28 | $13,918.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $481.73 | 28 | $13,488.44 | $13,649.48 |
$-430.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET | $493.28 | 27 | $13,318.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $493.80 | 27 | $13,332.60 | $13,663.52 |
+$14.04 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $499.06 | 27 | $13,474.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $509.49 | 27 | $13,756.36 | $13,945.26 |
+$281.74 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $499.78 | 27 | $13,494.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $512.38 | 27 | $13,834.26 | $14,285.46 |
+$340.20 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 11:20am ET | $515.80 | 27 | $13,926.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $526.33 | 27 | $14,210.91 | $14,569.64 |
+$284.18 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $516.12 | 28 | $14,451.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $500.55 | 28 | $14,015.40 | $14,133.68 |
$-435.96 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 3:25pm ET | $504.89 | 27 | $13,632.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $515.91 | 27 | $13,929.57 | $14,431.22 |
+$297.54 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:05pm ET | $529.40 | 27 | $14,293.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $504.07 | 27 | $13,609.89 | $13,747.31 |
$-683.91 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $502.21 | 27 | $13,559.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $496.60 | 27 | $13,408.20 | $13,595.84 |
$-151.47 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $499.80 | 27 | $13,494.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $501.68 | 27 | $13,545.49 | $13,646.74 |
+$50.90 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $494.46 | 27 | $13,350.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $499.00 | 27 | $13,473.00 | $13,769.32 |
+$122.58 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $506.75 | 27 | $13,682.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $491.52 | 27 | $13,271.04 | $13,358.18 |
$-411.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $498.76 | 26 | $12,967.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 12:15pm ET | $493.67 | 26 | $12,835.52 | $13,225.97 |
$-132.21 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $494.17 | 26 | $12,848.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 12:15pm ET | $492.78 | 26 | $12,812.28 | $13,189.96 |
$-36.01 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $480.79 | 27 | $12,981.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $465.57 | 27 | $12,570.39 | $12,779.02 |
$-410.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:25am ET | $485.50 | 26 | $12,623.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $490.22 | 26 | $12,745.72 | $12,901.74 |
+$122.72 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $488.78 | 26 | $12,708.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 10:25am ET | $491.88 | 26 | $12,788.88 | $12,982.34 |
+$80.60 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 12:10pm ET | $498.33 | 26 | $12,956.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.58 | 26 | $12,703.08 | $12,728.71 |
$-253.63 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $484.85 | 26 | $12,606.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $494.95 | 26 | $12,868.70 | $12,991.31 |
+$262.60 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 11:00am ET | $499.04 | 26 | $12,975.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $509.06 | 26 | $13,235.56 | $13,251.83 |
+$260.52 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $508.17 | 26 | $13,212.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $520.00 | 26 | $13,520.00 | $13,559.28 |
+$307.45 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $534.72 | 25 | $13,368.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:35am ET | $536.37 | 25 | $13,409.25 | $13,600.53 |
+$41.25 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 12:05pm ET | $520.02 | 26 | $13,520.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $533.69 | 26 | $13,875.94 | $13,955.88 |
+$355.35 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $541.97 | 25 | $13,549.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $540.70 | 25 | $13,517.50 | $13,924.14 |
$-31.75 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $539.79 | 25 | $13,494.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $545.06 | 25 | $13,626.50 | $14,055.89 |
+$131.75 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $560.43 | 25 | $14,010.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $575.92 | 25 | $14,398.00 | $14,443.01 |
+$387.12 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $568.53 | 25 | $14,213.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $580.21 | 25 | $14,505.25 | $14,735.01 |
+$292.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $566.67 | 26 | $14,733.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $561.59 | 26 | $14,601.34 | $14,602.93 |
$-132.08 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $566.27 | 25 | $14,156.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $565.61 | 25 | $14,140.37 | $14,586.49 |
$-16.44 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $571.66 | 25 | $14,291.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $592.43 | 25 | $14,810.75 | $15,105.74 |
+$519.25 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $571.66 | 25 | $14,291.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $598.34 | 25 | $14,958.38 | $15,772.62 |
+$666.88 (+4.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $593.06 | 26 | $15,419.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $590.75 | 26 | $15,359.50 | $15,712.56 |
$-60.06 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $593.06 | 26 | $15,419.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $585.55 | 26 | $15,224.30 | $15,517.30 |
$-195.26 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $582.14 | 26 | $15,135.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $568.30 | 26 | $14,775.80 | $15,157.46 |
$-359.84 (-2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $565.61 | 26 | $14,705.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $576.93 | 26 | $15,000.18 | $15,451.78 |
+$294.32 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $568.58 | 27 | $15,351.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $566.88 | 27 | $15,305.76 | $15,405.88 |
$-45.90 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,405.88
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,405.88
Total Return:
+54.06%