MS Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 41 trades in period
+2.63%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,558.39
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$14,184.90
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
36
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.9/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
35.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 35.7
30-Day Momentum
9
-2.8%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.1
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$14,184.90
Current Value
$14,558.39
Period P&L
$373.50
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
22 /
19
Best Trade
+6.58%
Worst Trade
-6.28%
Avg Trade Return
+0.08%
Avg Hold Time
3.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,295,516.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$373.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$373.50
Gross Return
+2.63%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,184.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 1:05pm ET | $164.30 | 87 | $14,294.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $168.17 | 87 | $14,630.44 | $14,666.52 |
+$335.91 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $165.71 | 88 | $14,582.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.57 | 88 | $14,041.72 | $14,126.19 |
$-540.33 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $159.33 | 88 | $14,021.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $163.00 | 88 | $14,344.00 | $14,449.15 |
+$322.96 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:50pm ET | $166.92 | 86 | $14,355.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $161.57 | 86 | $13,895.02 | $13,989.05 |
$-460.10 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $166.04 | 84 | $13,946.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.96 | 84 | $14,864.64 | $14,906.75 |
+$917.70 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.39 | 84 | $14,732.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:45pm ET | $178.98 | 84 | $15,034.32 | $15,208.31 |
+$301.56 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $184.32 | 82 | $15,114.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.49 | 82 | $15,456.18 | $15,550.25 |
+$341.94 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:40am ET | $188.44 | 82 | $15,452.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $192.23 | 82 | $15,762.86 | $15,861.03 |
+$310.78 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:25am ET | $191.49 | 82 | $15,702.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $189.18 | 82 | $15,512.76 | $15,671.61 |
$-189.42 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:35am ET | $188.78 | 83 | $15,668.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $193.20 | 83 | $16,035.60 | $16,038.47 |
+$366.86 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $189.30 | 84 | $15,901.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $193.60 | 84 | $16,262.40 | $16,399.67 |
+$361.20 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $191.07 | 85 | $16,240.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $187.35 | 85 | $15,924.33 | $16,083.47 |
$-316.20 (-1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:45am ET | $192.71 | 83 | $15,994.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $191.85 | 83 | $15,923.96 | $16,012.50 |
$-70.97 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 12:00pm ET | $191.26 | 83 | $15,874.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $195.16 | 83 | $16,198.28 | $16,335.79 |
+$323.29 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:30am ET | $199.19 | 82 | $16,333.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $203.27 | 82 | $16,668.14 | $16,670.35 |
+$334.56 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $199.24 | 83 | $16,537.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 11:05am ET | $203.41 | 83 | $16,883.44 | $17,016.53 |
+$346.18 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $207.64 | 81 | $16,818.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 3:35pm ET | $212.00 | 81 | $17,172.17 | $17,369.86 |
+$353.33 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $215.01 | 80 | $17,200.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.24 | 80 | $17,139.20 | $17,308.26 |
$-61.60 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.7d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $209.04 | 82 | $17,141.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.79 | 82 | $17,694.78 | $17,861.76 |
+$553.50 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:05pm ET | $219.96 | 81 | $17,816.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $224.54 | 81 | $18,187.34 | $18,232.74 |
+$370.98 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $228.36 | 79 | $18,040.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $226.97 | 79 | $17,930.63 | $18,122.93 |
$-109.81 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:50am ET | $222.73 | 81 | $18,041.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $216.04 | 81 | $17,499.04 | $17,580.84 |
$-542.09 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:50am ET | $222.73 | 81 | $18,041.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $216.85 | 81 | $17,564.85 | $17,104.56 |
$-476.28 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $220.34 | 77 | $16,965.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.04 | 77 | $17,096.70 | $17,235.46 |
+$130.90 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:25am ET | $230.50 | 74 | $17,057.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $221.83 | 74 | $16,415.42 | $16,593.61 |
$-641.85 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 1:00pm ET | $217.14 | 76 | $16,502.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 3:10pm ET | $210.61 | 76 | $16,006.36 | $16,097.33 |
$-496.28 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 3:10pm ET | $215.10 | 74 | $15,917.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 12:30pm ET | $219.56 | 74 | $16,247.44 | $16,427.37 |
+$330.04 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $214.80 | 76 | $16,324.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $211.98 | 76 | $16,110.48 | $16,213.05 |
$-214.32 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $220.34 | 77 | $16,965.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.50 | 77 | $15,900.50 | $15,147.75 |
$-1,065.30 (-6.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $208.97 | 72 | $15,045.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $213.65 | 72 | $15,382.44 | $15,484.35 |
+$336.60 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $217.66 | 71 | $15,454.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 11:20am ET | $217.26 | 71 | $15,425.81 | $15,455.95 |
$-28.40 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 2:10pm ET | $215.64 | 71 | $15,310.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $220.19 | 71 | $15,633.49 | $15,779.00 |
+$323.05 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $221.37 | 71 | $15,717.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $216.61 | 71 | $15,379.31 | $15,441.04 |
$-337.96 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET | $214.36 | 72 | $15,433.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:30pm ET | $207.89 | 72 | $14,968.08 | $14,975.20 |
$-465.84 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $213.88 | 70 | $14,971.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 3:40pm ET | $214.09 | 70 | $14,986.12 | $14,990.07 |
+$14.87 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $216.24 | 69 | $14,920.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $213.14 | 69 | $14,706.66 | $14,776.17 |
$-213.90 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $216.76 | 68 | $14,739.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 12:10pm ET | $217.57 | 68 | $14,794.42 | $14,830.91 |
+$54.74 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $216.00 | 68 | $14,688.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 10:50am ET | $209.21 | 68 | $14,226.28 | $14,369.19 |
$-461.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $202.49 | 70 | $14,174.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $207.07 | 70 | $14,494.90 | $14,689.79 |
+$320.60 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $201.14 | 73 | $14,683.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.55 | 73 | $15,005.15 | $15,011.72 |
+$321.93 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $204.38 | 73 | $14,919.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $198.17 | 73 | $14,466.41 | $14,558.39 |
$-453.33 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,558.39
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,558.39
Total Return:
+45.58%