MSFT Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 46 trades in period
+17.64%
Last 6 Months Return
$13,571.90
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$11,536.57
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.5/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
33.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 33.1
30-Day Momentum
12
+0.4%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.4
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,536.57
Current Value
$13,571.90
Period P&L
$2,035.36
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
28 /
18
Best Trade
+9.74%
Worst Trade
-3.87%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,126,463.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,035.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,035.36
Gross Return
+17.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.64%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,536.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $384.34 | 30 | $11,530.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $372.72 | 30 | $11,181.60 | $11,304.94 |
$-348.60 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 12:50pm ET | $370.96 | 30 | $11,128.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $359.58 | 30 | $10,787.40 | $10,963.39 |
$-341.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $360.23 | 30 | $10,806.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET | $367.89 | 30 | $11,036.85 | $11,193.49 |
+$230.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $370.70 | 30 | $11,121.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:00pm ET | $371.66 | 30 | $11,149.80 | $11,222.29 |
+$28.80 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $369.57 | 30 | $11,086.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $384.69 | 30 | $11,540.70 | $11,676.04 |
+$453.75 (+4.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $368.73 | 31 | $11,430.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $377.73 | 31 | $11,709.78 | $11,955.19 |
+$279.15 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 11:00am ET | $391.62 | 30 | $11,748.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $400.89 | 30 | $12,026.70 | $12,233.29 |
+$278.10 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $414.36 | 29 | $12,016.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $424.78 | 29 | $12,318.62 | $12,535.61 |
+$302.32 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $419.52 | 29 | $12,166.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $428.24 | 29 | $12,418.96 | $12,788.49 |
+$252.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $420.27 | 30 | $12,608.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $423.65 | 30 | $12,709.65 | $12,889.89 |
+$101.40 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $424.58 | 30 | $12,737.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $410.24 | 30 | $12,307.20 | $12,459.69 |
$-430.20 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $412.13 | 30 | $12,363.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $410.40 | 30 | $12,311.94 | $12,407.73 |
$-51.96 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:20am ET | $423.89 | 29 | $12,292.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $407.79 | 29 | $11,825.77 | $11,940.68 |
$-467.05 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $408.20 | 29 | $11,837.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $417.72 | 29 | $12,113.88 | $12,216.76 |
+$276.08 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $421.61 | 28 | $11,805.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $430.24 | 28 | $12,046.86 | $12,458.40 |
+$241.64 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $412.80 | 30 | $12,384.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:45pm ET | $421.34 | 30 | $12,640.20 | $12,714.60 |
+$256.20 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $420.21 | 30 | $12,606.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $411.40 | 30 | $12,342.00 | $12,450.15 |
$-264.45 (-2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 10:35am ET | $423.42 | 29 | $12,279.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $433.16 | 29 | $12,561.64 | $12,732.61 |
+$282.46 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $461.89 | 27 | $12,470.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.97 | 27 | $12,068.19 | $12,329.90 |
$-402.71 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $432.18 | 28 | $12,101.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $418.74 | 28 | $11,724.77 | $11,953.63 |
$-376.27 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:00pm ET | $409.36 | 29 | $11,871.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.54 | 29 | $11,441.66 | $11,523.85 |
$-429.78 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $384.04 | 30 | $11,521.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $396.85 | 30 | $11,905.50 | $11,908.30 |
+$384.45 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $393.41 | 30 | $11,802.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $381.09 | 30 | $11,432.70 | $11,538.70 |
$-369.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $377.77 | 30 | $11,333.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 3:40pm ET | $373.58 | 30 | $11,207.40 | $11,412.85 |
$-125.85 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $362.57 | 31 | $11,239.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 12:45pm ET | $351.68 | 31 | $10,902.08 | $11,075.31 |
$-337.54 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:15pm ET | $369.79 | 29 | $10,723.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $378.28 | 29 | $10,970.12 | $11,321.52 |
+$246.21 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $369.73 | 30 | $11,091.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $378.45 | 30 | $11,353.50 | $11,583.12 |
+$261.60 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $385.96 | 30 | $11,578.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:20am ET | $394.94 | 30 | $11,848.20 | $11,852.52 |
+$269.40 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $382.61 | 30 | $11,478.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $390.04 | 30 | $11,701.20 | $12,075.27 |
+$222.75 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $386.08 | 31 | $11,968.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:10am ET | $394.16 | 31 | $12,218.96 | $12,325.75 |
+$250.48 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 12:10pm ET | $399.88 | 30 | $11,996.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 12:10pm ET | $397.78 | 30 | $11,933.40 | $12,262.75 |
$-63.00 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 12:10pm ET | $388.60 | 31 | $12,046.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $389.99 | 31 | $12,089.69 | $12,305.84 |
+$43.09 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 12:30pm ET | $398.10 | 30 | $11,943.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $436.88 | 30 | $13,106.25 | $13,469.09 |
+$1,163.25 (+9.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.00 | 29 | $13,050.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $460.38 | 29 | $13,351.02 | $13,770.11 |
+$301.02 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $486.32 | 28 | $13,616.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 10:35am ET | $496.45 | 28 | $13,900.60 | $14,053.76 |
+$283.65 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $489.82 | 28 | $13,714.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $499.82 | 28 | $13,994.82 | $14,333.76 |
+$280.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $510.40 | 28 | $14,291.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $493.38 | 28 | $13,814.50 | $13,857.05 |
$-476.71 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $497.88 | 27 | $13,442.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $482.70 | 27 | $13,032.90 | $13,447.33 |
$-409.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:55am ET | $481.11 | 27 | $12,989.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $483.66 | 27 | $13,058.79 | $13,516.15 |
+$68.82 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:55am ET | $481.11 | 27 | $12,989.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $487.94 | 27 | $13,174.38 | $13,700.56 |
+$184.41 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $490.90 | 27 | $13,254.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $501.31 | 27 | $13,535.37 | $13,981.49 |
+$280.93 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $508.39 | 27 | $13,726.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $497.73 | 27 | $13,438.84 | $13,693.80 |
$-287.69 (-2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:25pm ET | $512.86 | 26 | $13,334.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $493.04 | 26 | $12,818.91 | $13,178.35 |
$-515.45 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $491.61 | 26 | $12,781.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $501.85 | 26 | $13,048.10 | $13,444.50 |
+$266.15 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $500.93 | 26 | $13,024.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $495.59 | 26 | $12,885.34 | $13,305.66 |
$-138.84 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $497.62 | 26 | $12,938.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $507.86 | 26 | $13,204.36 | $13,571.90 |
+$266.24 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,571.90
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,571.90
Total Return:
+35.72%