NFLX Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 42 trades in period
-10.56%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,808.54
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$16,557.10
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.6/35
Total Return
14.0/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
37.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 37.0
30-Day Momentum
13
-0.8%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.6
Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$16,557.10
Current Value
$14,808.54
Period P&L
$-1,748.56
Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
23 /
19
Best Trade
+3.10%
Worst Trade
-10.92%
Avg Trade Return
-0.22%
Avg Hold Time
3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,322,191.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,748.56
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,748.56
Gross Return
-10.56%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.56%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $16,557.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 11:20am ET | $92.28 | 179 | $16,518.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:15pm ET | $94.15 | 179 | $16,853.21 | $16,892.19 |
+$335.09 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $93.35 | 180 | $16,802.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:35pm ET | $95.53 | 180 | $17,194.50 | $17,284.59 |
+$392.40 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:00pm ET | $95.67 | 180 | $17,220.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $97.67 | 180 | $17,580.60 | $17,644.59 |
+$360.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:50am ET | $98.19 | 179 | $17,576.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $100.21 | 179 | $17,937.57 | $18,006.15 |
+$361.56 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $101.82 | 176 | $17,921.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $104.74 | 176 | $18,433.36 | $18,518.31 |
+$512.16 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $105.82 | 174 | $18,413.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $108.03 | 174 | $18,797.22 | $18,901.98 |
+$383.67 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $97.82 | 193 | $18,878.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $94.69 | 193 | $18,276.13 | $18,299.49 |
$-602.49 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:25am ET | $93.31 | 196 | $18,287.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $91.85 | 196 | $18,002.60 | $18,014.31 |
$-285.18 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $90.76 | 198 | $17,970.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:00am ET | $92.69 | 198 | $18,352.64 | $18,396.47 |
+$382.16 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:35pm ET | $93.11 | 197 | $18,343.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $89.76 | 197 | $17,682.72 | $17,735.54 |
$-660.93 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $88.19 | 201 | $17,726.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $87.07 | 201 | $17,501.07 | $17,509.82 |
$-225.72 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $88.03 | 198 | $17,429.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.38 | 198 | $17,103.24 | $17,183.12 |
$-326.70 (-1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:25am ET | $90.19 | 190 | $17,136.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.53 | 190 | $16,819.75 | $16,866.77 |
$-316.35 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $87.37 | 193 | $16,862.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $87.03 | 193 | $16,797.47 | $16,801.83 |
$-64.94 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $83.49 | 201 | $16,781.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.54 | 201 | $16,389.94 | $16,410.30 |
$-391.53 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.18 | 199 | $16,354.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $79.58 | 199 | $15,836.42 | $15,891.91 |
$-518.39 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $80.68 | 196 | $15,812.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $78.14 | 196 | $15,314.46 | $15,394.07 |
$-497.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $77.53 | 198 | $15,350.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $75.12 | 198 | $14,873.76 | $14,916.89 |
$-477.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $72.66 | 205 | $14,894.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $74.17 | 205 | $15,203.83 | $15,226.42 |
+$309.53 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $75.44 | 201 | $15,163.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.07 | 201 | $14,687.07 | $14,750.05 |
$-476.37 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $74.05 | 199 | $14,735.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.96 | 199 | $15,115.05 | $15,129.14 |
+$379.09 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $75.97 | 199 | $15,118.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.85 | 199 | $15,492.15 | $15,503.26 |
+$374.12 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $75.25 | 206 | $15,501.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 10:55am ET | $72.97 | 206 | $15,031.82 | $15,033.58 |
$-469.68 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $74.79 | 201 | $15,032.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $66.63 | 201 | $13,391.63 | $13,392.41 |
$-1,641.17 (-10.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:35am ET | $67.30 | 198 | $13,325.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:50pm ET | $68.68 | 198 | $13,598.64 | $13,665.65 |
+$273.24 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $68.38 | 199 | $13,607.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 11:10am ET | $69.88 | 199 | $13,905.13 | $13,963.16 |
+$297.51 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $71.24 | 196 | $13,963.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $72.79 | 196 | $14,266.82 | $14,266.92 |
+$303.76 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 2:50pm ET | $73.51 | 194 | $14,261.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $71.21 | 194 | $13,815.71 | $13,820.72 |
$-446.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $71.94 | 192 | $13,813.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.55 | 192 | $14,121.60 | $14,128.88 |
+$308.16 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:45am ET | $73.43 | 192 | $14,097.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.22 | 192 | $14,442.24 | $14,473.52 |
+$344.64 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $73.42 | 197 | $14,463.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $74.97 | 197 | $14,770.07 | $14,779.86 |
+$306.34 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:35am ET | $75.35 | 196 | $14,768.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $76.91 | 196 | $15,074.36 | $15,085.62 |
+$305.76 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 12:25pm ET | $78.21 | 192 | $15,015.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $75.71 | 192 | $14,537.28 | $14,607.54 |
$-478.08 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $78.61 | 185 | $14,542.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $80.34 | 185 | $14,862.90 | $14,927.59 |
+$320.05 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:35am ET | $79.93 | 186 | $14,867.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 10:25am ET | $81.57 | 186 | $15,172.02 | $15,231.70 |
+$304.11 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 10:40am ET | $81.94 | 185 | $15,159.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $79.45 | 185 | $14,698.25 | $14,770.12 |
$-461.58 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $81.94 | 180 | $14,750.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $82.58 | 180 | $14,865.30 | $14,885.32 |
+$115.20 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $81.94 | 180 | $14,750.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $82.52 | 180 | $14,853.60 | $14,988.82 |
+$103.50 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $78.97 | 189 | $14,925.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $76.43 | 189 | $14,445.29 | $14,508.78 |
$-480.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $76.44 | 189 | $14,447.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.81 | 189 | $14,895.09 | $14,956.71 |
+$447.93 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:10am ET | $77.82 | 192 | $14,941.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $75.39 | 192 | $14,474.88 | $14,490.15 |
$-466.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 12:05pm ET | $71.46 | 202 | $14,435.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 10:25am ET | $73.04 | 202 | $14,754.32 | $14,808.54 |
+$318.39 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,808.54
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,808.54
Total Return:
+48.09%