NIO Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 55 trades in period
-31.61%
Last 6 Months Return
$4,396.94
Current Value
49%
Win Rate
$6,429.35
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
8
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality
8.3/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 8.3
30-Day Momentum
6
-11.3%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1
Conf: 0.81×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,429.35
Current Value
$4,396.94
Period P&L
$-2,032.41
Max Drawdown
-39.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.21
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
55
Winners / Losers
27 /
28
Best Trade
+4.72%
Worst Trade
-6.58%
Avg Trade Return
-0.64%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$665,870.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,032.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,032.41
Gross Return
-31.61%
Net Return (after fees)
-31.61%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 55 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,429.35 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:55am ET | $5.81 | 1,106 | $6,425.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $5.63 | 1,106 | $6,229.43 | $6,232.91 |
$-196.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $5.41 | 1,151 | $6,228.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.54 | 1,151 | $6,376.54 | $6,380.93 |
+$148.02 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $6.09 | 1,047 | $6,376.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $6.22 | 1,047 | $6,507.11 | $6,511.81 |
+$130.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $6.24 | 1,042 | $6,507.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $6.05 | 1,042 | $6,304.00 | $6,308.52 |
$-203.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.43 | 980 | $6,302.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.57 | 980 | $6,438.60 | $6,444.74 |
+$136.22 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $6.39 | 1,007 | $6,439.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $6.54 | 1,007 | $6,584.37 | $6,589.35 |
+$144.61 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.50 | 1,013 | $6,585.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.64 | 1,013 | $6,726.22 | $6,730.36 |
+$141.01 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $6.47 | 1,040 | $6,728.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.65 | 1,040 | $6,914.96 | $6,916.62 |
+$186.26 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.86 | 1,007 | $6,913.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.64 | 1,007 | $6,686.48 | $6,690.05 |
$-226.57 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $6.49 | 1,030 | $6,689.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $6.29 | 1,030 | $6,478.70 | $6,478.90 |
$-211.15 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $6.22 | 1,041 | $6,475.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.35 | 1,041 | $6,610.25 | $6,614.13 |
+$135.23 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $6.30 | 1,049 | $6,611.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.60 | 1,049 | $6,923.40 | $6,926.10 |
+$311.97 (+4.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.26 | 1,106 | $6,923.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.39 | 1,106 | $7,061.81 | $7,064.68 |
+$138.58 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $5.93 | 1,192 | $7,062.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.05 | 1,192 | $7,205.64 | $7,207.72 |
+$143.04 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $6.07 | 1,187 | $7,205.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.71 | 1,187 | $6,780.74 | $6,783.37 |
$-424.35 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $5.97 | 1,137 | $6,782.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:15am ET | $6.09 | 1,137 | $6,918.65 | $6,919.81 |
+$136.44 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 12:00pm ET | $5.91 | 1,171 | $6,914.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 2:35pm ET | $6.03 | 1,171 | $7,058.79 | $7,063.84 |
+$144.03 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 3:15pm ET | $6.48 | 1,089 | $7,058.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.22 | 1,089 | $6,779.02 | $6,784.40 |
$-279.44 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $6.12 | 1,108 | $6,780.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $5.89 | 1,108 | $6,520.58 | $6,524.02 |
$-260.38 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:50am ET | $5.72 | 1,140 | $6,520.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.88 | 1,140 | $6,703.20 | $6,706.42 |
+$182.40 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $5.18 | 1,293 | $6,704.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $5.32 | 1,293 | $6,872.30 | $6,874.51 |
+$168.09 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $5.68 | 1,210 | $6,872.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $5.81 | 1,210 | $7,030.10 | $7,031.81 |
+$157.30 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.38 | 1,307 | $7,031.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $5.49 | 1,307 | $7,173.73 | $7,173.88 |
+$142.07 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 10:55am ET | $5.90 | 1,215 | $7,168.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 12:30pm ET | $6.02 | 1,215 | $7,314.30 | $7,319.80 |
+$145.92 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $6.05 | 1,208 | $7,314.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.84 | 1,208 | $7,057.26 | $7,062.62 |
$-257.18 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $5.82 | 1,212 | $7,059.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.55 | 1,212 | $6,726.72 | $6,729.44 |
$-333.18 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:10am ET | $5.50 | 1,223 | $6,728.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $5.34 | 1,223 | $6,524.71 | $6,525.20 |
$-204.24 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $5.23 | 1,247 | $6,521.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $5.29 | 1,247 | $6,596.75 | $6,600.14 |
+$74.94 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $5.02 | 1,314 | $6,596.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $5.14 | 1,314 | $6,753.83 | $6,757.69 |
+$157.55 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $5.09 | 1,327 | $6,753.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.88 | 1,327 | $6,475.76 | $6,480.21 |
$-277.48 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.99 | 1,298 | $6,477.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.84 | 1,298 | $6,275.83 | $6,279.02 |
$-201.19 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $4.80 | 1,307 | $6,275.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.93 | 1,307 | $6,443.51 | $6,447.23 |
+$168.21 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 11:45am ET | $5.01 | 1,286 | $6,442.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.82 | 1,286 | $6,204.95 | $6,209.32 |
$-237.91 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 12:40pm ET | $5.03 | 1,233 | $6,204.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $4.88 | 1,233 | $6,017.16 | $6,021.53 |
$-187.79 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 3:45pm ET | $4.92 | 1,223 | $6,017.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.74 | 1,223 | $5,796.41 | $5,800.78 |
$-220.75 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.82 | 1,203 | $5,800.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.93 | 1,203 | $5,928.02 | $5,928.78 |
+$128.00 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:15am ET | $5.09 | 1,164 | $5,928.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.84 | 1,164 | $5,639.58 | $5,639.64 |
$-289.14 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $4.90 | 1,150 | $5,635.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.74 | 1,150 | $5,456.75 | $5,461.28 |
$-178.37 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $4.64 | 1,178 | $5,460.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $4.49 | 1,178 | $5,295.11 | $5,296.24 |
$-165.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $4.59 | 1,153 | $5,292.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.70 | 1,153 | $5,419.10 | $5,423.07 |
+$126.83 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.82 | 1,203 | $5,800.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.68 | 1,203 | $5,636.05 | $5,259.10 |
$-163.97 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.88 | 1,078 | $5,255.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.71 | 1,078 | $5,077.38 | $5,081.23 |
$-177.87 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $4.71 | 1,078 | $5,077.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $4.57 | 1,078 | $4,921.93 | $4,925.78 |
$-155.45 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.68 | 1,053 | $4,922.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.78 | 1,053 | $5,032.60 | $5,035.61 |
+$109.83 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $4.55 | 1,105 | $5,031.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.54 | 1,105 | $5,015.60 | $5,019.81 |
$-15.80 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $4.51 | 1,113 | $5,018.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 12:10pm ET | $4.60 | 1,113 | $5,119.80 | $5,120.98 |
+$101.17 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 12:35pm ET | $4.62 | 1,107 | $5,118.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.48 | 1,107 | $4,957.26 | $4,960.13 |
$-160.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 12:35pm ET | $4.62 | 1,107 | $5,118.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.48 | 1,107 | $4,959.47 | $4,801.50 |
$-158.63 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.33 | 1,108 | $4,797.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.05 | 1,108 | $4,481.86 | $4,485.61 |
$-315.89 (-6.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $3.89 | 1,151 | $4,482.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $3.77 | 1,151 | $4,339.27 | $4,342.31 |
$-143.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $3.76 | 1,154 | $4,338.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 1:10pm ET | $3.84 | 1,154 | $4,431.36 | $4,434.75 |
+$92.44 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $3.71 | 1,195 | $4,433.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 2:40pm ET | $3.60 | 1,195 | $4,296.03 | $4,297.32 |
$-137.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 3:40pm ET | $3.69 | 1,163 | $4,297.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:40pm ET | $3.58 | 1,163 | $4,163.54 | $4,163.57 |
$-133.75 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $3.59 | 1,159 | $4,161.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $3.69 | 1,159 | $4,282.50 | $4,285.03 |
+$121.46 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $3.63 | 1,178 | $4,282.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $3.73 | 1,178 | $4,393.94 | $4,396.94 |
+$111.91 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,396.94
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,603.06
Total Return:
-56.03%