NVDA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 47 trades in period
-2.77%
Last 6 Months Return
$19,285.67
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$19,835.02
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
40
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
9.2/35
Total Return
16.4/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
40.6/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 40.3
30-Day Momentum
25
+3.0%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 31.1
Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$19,835.02
Current Value
$19,285.67
Period P&L
$-549.35
Max Drawdown
-35.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
28 /
19
Best Trade
+5.47%
Worst Trade
-6.35%
Avg Trade Return
+0.02%
Avg Hold Time
3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,855,391.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-549.35
Net P&L (after fees)
$-549.35
Gross Return
-2.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.77%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $19,835.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $175.58 | 110 | $19,313.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $179.45 | 110 | $19,738.95 | $19,910.37 |
+$425.14 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $175.38 | 113 | $19,817.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.68 | 113 | $19,174.40 | $19,267.40 |
$-642.97 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $167.00 | 115 | $19,205.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:20am ET | $170.50 | 115 | $19,607.51 | $19,669.91 |
+$402.51 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:20am ET | $176.79 | 111 | $19,623.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $176.80 | 111 | $19,624.80 | $19,671.57 |
+$1.66 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $175.03 | 112 | $19,603.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.60 | 112 | $20,675.20 | $20,743.04 |
+$1,071.47 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $181.54 | 114 | $20,694.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $185.60 | 114 | $21,158.40 | $21,206.45 |
+$463.41 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $186.20 | 113 | $21,040.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.50 | 113 | $21,639.50 | $21,805.35 |
+$598.90 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $199.54 | 109 | $21,750.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $198.62 | 109 | $21,649.04 | $21,703.98 |
$-101.37 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $199.02 | 109 | $21,693.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $203.66 | 109 | $22,198.94 | $22,209.20 |
+$505.22 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $208.31 | 106 | $22,080.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $212.82 | 106 | $22,559.45 | $22,687.79 |
+$478.59 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:20pm ET | $213.51 | 106 | $22,632.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $206.49 | 106 | $21,888.47 | $21,944.20 |
$-743.59 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:30am ET | $199.03 | 110 | $21,893.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $204.09 | 110 | $22,449.90 | $22,500.80 |
+$556.60 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $212.62 | 105 | $22,324.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $217.21 | 105 | $22,807.57 | $22,983.59 |
+$482.79 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $221.02 | 103 | $22,765.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $227.04 | 103 | $23,385.12 | $23,603.13 |
+$619.54 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $234.15 | 100 | $23,415.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $225.62 | 100 | $22,562.00 | $22,750.13 |
$-853.00 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $223.94 | 101 | $22,617.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 10:05am ET | $216.26 | 101 | $21,842.26 | $21,974.85 |
$-775.28 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $214.87 | 102 | $21,916.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.76 | 102 | $22,008.03 | $22,066.14 |
+$91.29 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $229.21 | 96 | $22,003.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 2:35pm ET | $221.96 | 96 | $21,308.64 | $21,371.10 |
$-695.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $229.21 | 96 | $22,003.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.65 | 96 | $20,606.40 | $19,973.82 |
$-1,397.28 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.46 | 93 | $19,945.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $207.78 | 93 | $19,323.54 | $19,352.12 |
$-621.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:35am ET | $207.43 | 93 | $19,290.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $200.29 | 93 | $18,626.97 | $18,688.56 |
$-663.56 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $202.75 | 92 | $18,653.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 11:20am ET | $207.00 | 92 | $19,044.00 | $19,079.56 |
+$391.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $212.14 | 89 | $18,880.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:25pm ET | $205.66 | 89 | $18,304.18 | $18,503.28 |
$-576.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $209.77 | 88 | $18,460.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.00 | 88 | $17,776.00 | $17,819.08 |
$-684.20 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:40am ET | $200.71 | 88 | $17,662.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $194.34 | 88 | $17,101.48 | $17,258.52 |
$-560.56 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:10pm ET | $193.77 | 89 | $17,245.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $198.21 | 89 | $17,641.13 | $17,654.12 |
+$395.60 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $195.29 | 90 | $17,576.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $199.63 | 90 | $17,966.70 | $18,044.27 |
+$390.15 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $195.07 | 92 | $17,946.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 12:20pm ET | $199.40 | 92 | $18,344.34 | $18,442.17 |
+$397.90 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $203.61 | 90 | $18,324.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 11:20am ET | $208.26 | 90 | $18,743.40 | $18,860.67 |
+$418.50 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $207.16 | 91 | $18,851.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 1:50pm ET | $211.33 | 91 | $19,231.03 | $19,240.14 |
+$379.47 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $207.79 | 92 | $19,116.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $200.23 | 92 | $18,420.70 | $18,544.62 |
$-695.52 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $205.85 | 90 | $18,526.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 11:05am ET | $211.65 | 90 | $19,048.50 | $19,066.17 |
+$521.55 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $206.79 | 92 | $19,024.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $211.46 | 92 | $19,454.56 | $19,496.05 |
+$429.88 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $203.61 | 90 | $18,324.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $192.21 | 90 | $17,299.35 | $18,470.50 |
$-1,025.55 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $195.34 | 94 | $18,361.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 1:35pm ET | $199.43 | 94 | $18,746.42 | $18,855.43 |
+$384.93 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 2:20pm ET | $207.96 | 90 | $18,716.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 2:25pm ET | $212.26 | 90 | $19,103.43 | $19,242.46 |
+$387.03 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $221.84 | 86 | $19,078.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $219.32 | 86 | $18,861.95 | $19,026.17 |
$-216.29 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $223.42 | 85 | $18,990.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $226.90 | 85 | $19,286.49 | $19,322.03 |
+$295.86 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:55pm ET | $220.14 | 87 | $19,152.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $213.19 | 87 | $18,547.53 | $18,717.38 |
$-604.65 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:55pm ET | $220.14 | 87 | $19,152.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $212.50 | 87 | $18,487.50 | $18,052.70 |
$-664.68 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:10am ET | $225.27 | 80 | $18,021.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $229.84 | 80 | $18,387.20 | $18,418.56 |
+$365.86 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $218.02 | 84 | $18,313.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $222.43 | 84 | $18,684.12 | $18,789.00 |
+$370.44 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $218.02 | 84 | $18,313.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $227.41 | 84 | $19,102.44 | $19,577.76 |
+$788.76 (+4.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:20pm ET | $230.69 | 84 | $19,377.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $223.74 | 84 | $18,794.16 | $18,993.96 |
$-583.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 10:55am ET | $217.91 | 87 | $18,958.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.20 | 87 | $18,374.40 | $18,409.76 |
$-584.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $212.80 | 86 | $18,300.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $218.13 | 86 | $18,759.18 | $18,868.14 |
+$458.38 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 10:05am ET | $218.99 | 86 | $18,833.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $223.85 | 86 | $19,250.67 | $19,285.67 |
+$417.53 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,285.67
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,285.67
Total Return:
+92.86%