Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:15:14

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 10.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 10.0

30-Day Momentum

12
-3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8 Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$4,808.18
Current Value
$4,286.19
Period P&L
$-521.97
Max Drawdown
-60.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
65
Winners / Losers
39 / 26
Best Trade
+3.53%
Worst Trade
-11.92%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$624,013.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-521.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$-521.97
Gross Return
-10.86%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 65 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $4,808.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:20pm ET $15.82 302 $4,779.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $16.33 302 $4,930.15 $4,933.47 +$151.00
(+3.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET $15.60 316 $4,929.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $15.07 316 $4,762.12 $4,765.99 $-167.48
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:40pm ET $14.43 330 $4,761.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 11:10am ET $14.77 330 $4,875.75 $4,879.84 +$113.85
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET $15.20 320 $4,865.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $15.57 320 $4,984.00 $4,998.24 +$118.40
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $15.10 331 $4,998.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:40am ET $14.62 331 $4,839.22 $4,839.36 $-158.88
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 1:05pm ET $15.35 315 $4,833.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET $15.71 315 $4,948.65 $4,954.33 +$114.97
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET $15.53 319 $4,954.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 1:40pm ET $15.86 319 $5,060.93 $5,061.20 +$106.87
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $15.94 317 $5,053.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 11:00am ET $16.26 317 $5,156.00 $5,164.16 +$102.96
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 1:00pm ET $16.98 304 $5,160.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET $17.32 304 $5,265.28 $5,269.04 +$104.88
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET $16.83 312 $5,252.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:50am ET $17.19 312 $5,361.88 $5,378.40 +$109.36
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET $17.56 306 $5,371.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 12:00pm ET $17.92 306 $5,483.52 $5,490.09 +$111.69
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 12:45pm ET $17.12 320 $5,478.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:05am ET $16.50 320 $5,280.00 $5,291.69 $-198.40
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET $16.67 317 $5,285.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET $16.14 317 $5,114.80 $5,120.51 $-171.18
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 11:05am ET $15.98 320 $5,112.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 11:00am ET $16.34 320 $5,228.80 $5,237.31 +$116.80
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
15 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 11:30am ET $15.40 340 $5,236.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $14.70 340 $4,997.97 $4,999.28 $-238.03
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
16 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:15am ET $14.94 334 $4,989.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 12:15pm ET $14.49 334 $4,839.66 $4,848.98 $-150.30
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
17 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:15pm ET $14.34 338 $4,846.92 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:50am ET $13.88 338 $4,691.44 $4,693.50 $-155.48
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held
18 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 10:50am ET $14.09 333 $4,690.31 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 11:10am ET $14.43 333 $4,803.53 $4,806.72 +$113.22
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
19 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $14.73 326 $4,800.35 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $14.06 326 $4,581.93 $4,588.30 $-218.42
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
20 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $13.27 345 $4,578.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $12.80 345 $4,414.28 $4,424.42 $-163.88
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
21 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:45pm ET $13.56 326 $4,418.93 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:35am ET $13.85 326 $4,515.10 $4,520.59 +$96.17
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
22 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:55am ET $14.18 318 $4,507.65 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:50am ET $14.56 318 $4,630.08 $4,643.02 +$122.43
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
23 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:55am ET $14.74 314 $4,629.93 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:50am ET $15.09 314 $4,736.69 $4,749.78 +$106.76
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
24 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 12:45pm ET $16.23 292 $4,737.70 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 1:45pm ET $16.58 292 $4,842.82 $4,854.90 +$105.12
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:00pm ET $17.09 284 $4,854.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 10:40am ET $17.45 284 $4,957.22 $4,957.62 +$102.72
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:40am ET $18.06 274 $4,947.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 1:20pm ET $18.42 274 $5,048.45 $5,059.00 +$101.38
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:10pm ET $16.32 310 $5,057.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $16.68 310 $5,170.80 $5,172.15 +$113.15
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:10am ET $16.18 319 $5,161.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $15.59 319 $4,973.21 $4,983.94 $-188.21
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:45pm ET $15.24 326 $4,969.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 3:45pm ET $14.75 326 $4,808.50 $4,822.57 $-161.37
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
30 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET $15.74 306 $4,816.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 12:40pm ET $16.08 306 $4,921.55 $4,927.68 +$105.11
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held
31 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 1:55pm ET $16.78 293 $4,916.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $16.13 293 $4,725.30 $4,736.44 $-191.24
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held
32 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET $16.19 292 $4,727.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 11:40am ET $16.56 292 $4,834.06 $4,843.02 +$106.58
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held
33 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 1:00pm ET $16.14 300 $4,840.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $16.48 300 $4,944.00 $4,946.52 +$103.50
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held
34 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $14.90 332 $4,945.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:55am ET $15.20 332 $5,046.40 $5,047.78 +$101.26
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
25m held
35 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 10:20am ET $14.90 338 $5,036.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 2:50pm ET $14.42 338 $4,873.96 $4,885.54 $-162.24
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held
36 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 10:15am ET $15.10 323 $4,878.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:35am ET $15.44 323 $4,988.73 $4,995.36 +$109.82
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
37 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 1:40pm ET $16.67 299 $4,984.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $17.01 299 $5,087.48 $5,098.49 +$103.13
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held
38 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET $17.10 298 $5,095.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:05am ET $17.55 298 $5,228.41 $5,231.10 +$132.61
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
30m held
39 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:40am ET $18.97 275 $5,216.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:05am ET $19.39 275 $5,332.25 $5,346.57 +$115.47
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
40 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:05am ET $17.40 307 $5,340.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 2:30pm ET $16.85 307 $5,174.48 $5,180.79 $-165.78
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held
41 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 2:40pm ET $16.52 313 $5,170.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $16.90 313 $5,288.14 $5,298.17 +$117.38
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held
42 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET $18.63 284 $5,290.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 1:10pm ET $18.03 284 $5,121.94 $5,129.19 $-168.98
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
43 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 2:15pm ET $17.17 298 $5,115.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET $17.51 298 $5,217.98 $5,232.00 +$102.81
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held
44 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 10:15am ET $18.44 283 $5,218.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:50pm ET $17.84 283 $5,050.13 $5,063.61 $-168.39
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held
45 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $16.61 304 $5,049.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $17.09 304 $5,196.88 $5,211.05 +$147.44
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
46 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:15am ET $17.41 299 $5,204.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $17.76 299 $5,310.24 $5,317.20 +$106.14
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET $16.69 318 $5,308.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:15am ET $16.17 318 $5,142.06 $5,151.17 $-166.03
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 11:40am ET $16.57 310 $5,135.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET $16.01 310 $4,964.65 $4,980.67 $-170.50
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET $18.63 284 $5,290.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $16.41 284 $4,660.44 $4,350.19 $-630.48
(-11.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:55am ET $16.20 268 $4,341.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET $15.63 268 $4,188.84 $4,197.43 $-152.76
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
51 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 11:30am ET $15.63 268 $4,189.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 11:25am ET $15.99 268 $4,285.32 $4,293.72 +$96.29
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
52 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 12:50pm ET $16.06 267 $4,286.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $16.42 267 $4,384.14 $4,391.17 +$97.45
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held
53 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:45am ET $16.34 268 $4,380.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 3:25pm ET $15.85 268 $4,246.46 $4,257.17 $-134.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
54 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:55am ET $14.84 286 $4,242.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET $15.14 286 $4,328.61 $4,342.97 +$85.80
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:05am ET $15.66 277 $4,339.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 12:30pm ET $16.04 277 $4,443.08 $4,446.85 +$103.88
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held
56 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $16.94 262 $4,439.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:25am ET $16.38 262 $4,290.25 $4,297.51 $-149.34
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:15am ET $16.62 258 $4,289.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET $16.11 258 $4,156.38 $4,164.74 $-132.77
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held
58 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 11:20am ET $16.23 256 $4,154.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.71 256 $4,021.76 $4,031.59 $-133.15
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
59 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:45am ET $15.48 260 $4,025.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $16.03 260 $4,167.80 $4,173.53 +$141.93
(+3.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
60 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 10:15am ET $15.73 265 $4,167.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:45am ET $16.09 265 $4,263.85 $4,270.25 +$96.72
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
61 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:55am ET $16.20 263 $4,261.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $15.64 263 $4,113.35 $4,121.68 $-148.57
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
62 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:15am ET $16.39 251 $4,113.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:20am ET $15.83 251 $3,973.30 $3,981.10 $-140.58
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
63 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET $15.51 256 $3,969.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $15.82 256 $4,051.20 $4,063.02 +$81.92
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
64 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:35pm ET $15.23 266 $4,049.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $15.63 266 $4,157.58 $4,170.75 +$107.73
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held
65 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 10:00am ET $15.18 274 $4,159.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $15.60 274 $4,274.76 $4,286.19 +$115.44
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,286.19
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,713.81
Total Return: -57.14%
Back to Rebel Contraire