SPXU Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 52 trades in period
+22.41%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,841.17
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$10,490.05
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.0/35
Total Return
11.7/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
27.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 27.5
30-Day Momentum
17
+1.3%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.4
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,490.05
Current Value
$12,841.17
Period P&L
$2,351.12
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
30 /
22
Best Trade
+5.28%
Worst Trade
-5.68%
Avg Trade Return
+0.36%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,170,710.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,351.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,351.12
Gross Return
+22.41%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.41%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,490.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $56.67 | 191 | $10,823.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.67 | 191 | $10,441.97 | $10,495.78 |
$-382.00 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $56.23 | 186 | $10,458.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:50pm ET | $57.36 | 186 | $10,668.96 | $10,705.96 |
+$210.18 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $59.93 | 178 | $10,667.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $61.22 | 178 | $10,897.14 | $10,935.56 |
+$229.60 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $62.39 | 175 | $10,918.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.95 | 175 | $10,491.25 | $10,508.56 |
$-427.00 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $55.53 | 189 | $10,495.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.63 | 189 | $10,892.07 | $10,905.46 |
+$396.90 (+3.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.22 | 197 | $10,878.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $56.47 | 197 | $11,124.59 | $11,151.71 |
+$246.25 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $50.68 | 220 | $11,149.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $49.76 | 220 | $10,948.30 | $10,950.41 |
$-201.30 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:25pm ET | $46.74 | 234 | $10,936.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.27 | 234 | $10,593.18 | $10,607.02 |
$-343.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $44.13 | 240 | $10,592.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $43.79 | 240 | $10,509.60 | $10,524.22 |
$-82.80 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $43.44 | 242 | $10,512.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $44.33 | 242 | $10,726.65 | $10,738.39 |
+$214.17 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:45pm ET | $42.98 | 249 | $10,702.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $43.85 | 249 | $10,918.65 | $10,955.00 |
+$216.61 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:30pm ET | $42.58 | 257 | $10,941.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $41.21 | 257 | $10,590.97 | $10,604.19 |
$-350.81 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $41.67 | 254 | $10,584.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $42.68 | 254 | $10,840.72 | $10,860.73 |
+$256.54 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $41.29 | 263 | $10,860.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $40.05 | 263 | $10,533.15 | $10,533.30 |
$-327.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $39.36 | 267 | $10,509.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 1:30pm ET | $40.15 | 267 | $10,721.38 | $10,745.08 |
+$211.78 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $38.99 | 275 | $10,722.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:20am ET | $39.78 | 275 | $10,940.87 | $10,963.65 |
+$218.57 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $38.74 | 282 | $10,926.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:50am ET | $37.55 | 282 | $10,589.10 | $10,626.66 |
$-336.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $38.49 | 276 | $10,623.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $39.29 | 276 | $10,844.04 | $10,847.46 |
+$220.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $39.73 | 273 | $10,846.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:35pm ET | $38.50 | 273 | $10,510.50 | $10,511.67 |
$-335.79 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $37.67 | 279 | $10,509.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $37.12 | 279 | $10,356.70 | $10,358.41 |
$-153.26 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $37.19 | 278 | $10,337.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $36.06 | 278 | $10,023.29 | $10,044.27 |
$-314.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 2:50pm ET | $36.02 | 278 | $10,013.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 12:35pm ET | $36.76 | 278 | $10,219.25 | $10,249.96 |
+$205.69 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 1:50pm ET | $36.26 | 282 | $10,225.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.99 | 282 | $10,431.18 | $10,455.82 |
+$205.86 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:20pm ET | $38.19 | 273 | $10,424.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 3:25pm ET | $39.02 | 273 | $10,652.46 | $10,683.77 |
+$227.95 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $40.07 | 266 | $10,658.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $40.94 | 266 | $10,888.71 | $10,913.86 |
+$230.09 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 3:20pm ET | $39.12 | 279 | $10,913.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.90 | 279 | $10,293.71 | $10,294.48 |
$-619.38 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.40 | 282 | $10,263.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $37.18 | 282 | $10,484.76 | $10,515.85 |
+$221.37 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 11:55am ET | $37.47 | 280 | $10,491.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.45 | 280 | $11,046.00 | $11,070.25 |
+$554.40 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:50am ET | $38.18 | 289 | $11,034.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $39.05 | 289 | $11,285.45 | $11,321.39 |
+$251.14 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:25pm ET | $38.69 | 292 | $11,297.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $40.01 | 292 | $11,682.92 | $11,706.86 |
+$385.47 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $38.71 | 302 | $11,690.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $37.49 | 302 | $11,321.98 | $11,338.42 |
$-368.44 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $37.28 | 304 | $11,331.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $36.83 | 304 | $11,196.32 | $11,203.14 |
$-135.28 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $37.14 | 301 | $11,179.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $37.98 | 301 | $11,431.98 | $11,455.98 |
+$252.84 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $36.84 | 310 | $11,420.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $36.31 | 310 | $11,256.10 | $11,291.68 |
$-164.30 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $36.53 | 309 | $11,287.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.09 | 309 | $11,769.81 | $11,773.72 |
+$482.04 (+4.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $36.99 | 318 | $11,762.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $37.73 | 318 | $11,998.36 | $12,009.26 |
+$235.54 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $36.99 | 324 | $11,983.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.10 | 324 | $12,344.40 | $12,370.52 |
+$361.26 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.45 | 321 | $12,342.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.38 | 321 | $12,319.98 | $12,348.05 |
$-22.47 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $38.86 | 317 | $12,318.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.58 | 317 | $11,912.86 | $11,942.58 |
$-405.47 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $36.40 | 328 | $11,939.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.21 | 328 | $11,548.88 | $11,552.26 |
$-390.32 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.07 | 349 | $11,541.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $33.76 | 349 | $11,781.93 | $11,792.76 |
+$240.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $34.10 | 345 | $11,762.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 12:55pm ET | $33.84 | 345 | $11,674.80 | $11,704.78 |
$-87.98 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $33.31 | 351 | $11,691.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.36 | 351 | $12,060.36 | $12,073.33 |
+$368.55 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $34.08 | 354 | $12,064.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $34.80 | 354 | $12,319.20 | $12,328.21 |
+$254.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:50pm ET | $34.71 | 355 | $12,322.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 2:50pm ET | $34.67 | 355 | $12,307.85 | $12,314.01 |
$-14.20 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:40pm ET | $34.10 | 361 | $12,308.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $34.78 | 361 | $12,555.58 | $12,561.29 |
+$247.28 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $35.20 | 356 | $12,531.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $34.13 | 356 | $12,152.06 | $12,182.15 |
$-379.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $34.29 | 355 | $12,172.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.15 | 355 | $12,478.25 | $12,487.45 |
+$305.30 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $35.71 | 349 | $12,462.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:25am ET | $36.05 | 349 | $12,582.01 | $12,606.67 |
+$119.22 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 10:40am ET | $35.81 | 352 | $12,605.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:05pm ET | $36.58 | 352 | $12,874.40 | $12,875.95 |
+$269.28 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.4h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $35.30 | 364 | $12,849.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 10:30am ET | $34.24 | 364 | $12,461.54 | $12,488.29 |
$-387.66 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 3:10pm ET | $33.57 | 372 | $12,488.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.52 | 372 | $12,840.92 | $12,841.17 |
+$352.88 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,841.17
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,841.17
Total Return:
+28.41%