SPY Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 31 trades in period
+15.67%
Last 6 Months Return
$15,637.57
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$13,519.12
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
55
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
20.4/35
Total Return
14.6/25
Win Rate
9.0/15
Profit Factor
4.8/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
55.5/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 55.1
30-Day Momentum
3
-0.5%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-52 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,519.12
Current Value
$15,637.57
Period P&L
$2,118.48
Max Drawdown
-9.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
20 /
11
Best Trade
+3.49%
Worst Trade
-3.08%
Avg Trade Return
+0.47%
Avg Hold Time
5.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$916,304.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,118.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,118.48
Gross Return
+15.67%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.67%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,519.12 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $660.15 | 20 | $13,203.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $640.16 | 20 | $12,803.20 | $13,266.49 |
$-399.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $635.93 | 20 | $12,718.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:55pm ET | $648.85 | 20 | $12,977.00 | $13,524.89 |
+$258.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $654.30 | 20 | $13,086.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $658.35 | 20 | $13,167.00 | $13,605.89 |
+$81.00 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $653.84 | 20 | $13,076.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $676.68 | 20 | $13,533.70 | $14,062.79 |
+$456.90 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $674.77 | 20 | $13,495.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $688.69 | 20 | $13,773.80 | $14,341.19 |
+$278.40 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $696.87 | 20 | $13,937.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $710.84 | 20 | $14,216.80 | $14,620.59 |
+$279.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $708.06 | 20 | $14,161.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $713.14 | 20 | $14,262.80 | $14,722.19 |
+$101.60 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $711.09 | 20 | $14,221.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $720.11 | 20 | $14,402.20 | $14,902.64 |
+$180.45 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $722.65 | 20 | $14,453.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $737.29 | 20 | $14,745.80 | $15,195.44 |
+$292.80 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:35am ET | $738.36 | 20 | $14,767.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $739.63 | 20 | $14,792.60 | $15,220.84 |
+$25.40 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $734.54 | 20 | $14,690.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $750.30 | 20 | $15,006.00 | $15,536.04 |
+$315.20 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $749.39 | 20 | $14,987.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $756.39 | 20 | $15,127.80 | $15,676.04 |
+$140.00 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $759.78 | 20 | $15,195.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $736.35 | 20 | $14,727.00 | $15,207.44 |
$-468.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $739.12 | 20 | $14,782.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $751.93 | 20 | $15,038.60 | $15,463.64 |
+$256.20 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.7d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $752.76 | 20 | $15,055.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $747.73 | 20 | $14,954.60 | $15,363.04 |
$-100.60 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $733.64 | 20 | $14,672.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $738.68 | 20 | $14,773.60 | $15,463.84 |
+$100.80 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $733.64 | 20 | $14,672.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $748.39 | 20 | $14,967.80 | $15,758.84 |
+$295.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $748.82 | 21 | $15,725.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $753.42 | 21 | $15,821.92 | $15,855.54 |
+$96.70 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $750.89 | 21 | $15,768.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $748.05 | 21 | $15,709.05 | $15,795.90 |
$-59.64 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 12:45pm ET | $748.49 | 21 | $15,718.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $744.66 | 21 | $15,637.76 | $15,715.37 |
$-80.53 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $748.82 | 21 | $15,725.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $735.23 | 21 | $15,439.83 | $15,429.98 |
$-285.39 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $742.06 | 20 | $14,841.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 1:25pm ET | $756.98 | 20 | $15,139.70 | $15,728.52 |
+$298.54 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $771.44 | 20 | $15,428.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $773.01 | 20 | $15,460.10 | $15,759.82 |
+$31.30 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:15am ET | $773.77 | 20 | $15,475.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $776.48 | 20 | $15,529.60 | $15,814.02 |
+$54.20 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $768.05 | 20 | $15,361.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $763.45 | 20 | $15,269.00 | $15,722.02 |
$-92.00 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $768.05 | 20 | $15,361.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $765.12 | 20 | $15,302.40 | $15,663.42 |
$-58.60 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $770.17 | 20 | $15,403.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $763.62 | 20 | $15,272.40 | $15,532.42 |
$-131.00 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $770.17 | 20 | $15,403.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $772.58 | 20 | $15,451.65 | $15,580.67 |
+$48.25 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:00pm ET | $770.79 | 20 | $15,415.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $762.58 | 20 | $15,251.60 | $15,416.47 |
$-164.20 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $758.57 | 20 | $15,171.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $756.78 | 20 | $15,135.60 | $15,380.67 |
$-35.80 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $759.52 | 20 | $15,190.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $772.36 | 20 | $15,447.20 | $15,637.57 |
+$256.90 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,637.57
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,637.57
Total Return:
+56.38%