Compendium › Rebel Contraire › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 29 trades in period

-1.26%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,789.67
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$8,902.11
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:27:37

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 10.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 10.0

30-Day Momentum

3
-1.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,902.11
Current Value
$8,789.67
Period P&L
$-112.45
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
14 / 15
Best Trade
+2.84%
Worst Trade
-2.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.00%
Avg Hold Time
6.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$515,619.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-112.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-112.45
Gross Return
-1.26%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.26%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,902.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $85.69 102 $8,740.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $86.62 102 $8,835.24 $8,895.49 +$94.35
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET $86.76 102 $8,850.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $86.51 102 $8,824.02 $8,869.48 $-26.01
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET $86.22 102 $8,794.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $86.43 102 $8,815.86 $8,890.39 +$20.91
(+0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $86.67 102 $8,839.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $87.10 102 $8,884.20 $8,934.76 +$44.37
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET $86.81 102 $8,854.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $86.49 102 $8,821.47 $8,902.12 $-32.64
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $86.11 103 $8,869.33 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $85.35 103 $8,791.05 $8,823.84 $-78.28
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
7 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:05am ET $85.23 103 $8,778.69 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $85.89 103 $8,846.67 $8,891.82 +$67.98
(+0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
8 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:35am ET $85.13 104 $8,853.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $83.71 104 $8,706.36 $8,744.66 $-147.16
(-1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
9 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $82.97 105 $8,711.85 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $85.33 105 $8,959.65 $8,992.46 +$247.80
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
10 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:55pm ET $85.29 105 $8,955.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 12:55pm ET $85.24 105 $8,950.20 $8,986.68 $-5.78
(-0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 11:05am ET $85.31 105 $8,957.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 11:05am ET $85.00 105 $8,924.48 $8,954.13 $-32.55
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 11:35am ET $84.80 105 $8,904.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $85.95 105 $9,024.75 $9,074.88 +$120.75
(+1.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:45am ET $85.95 105 $9,024.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $86.29 105 $9,060.45 $9,110.58 +$35.70
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:15am ET $86.32 105 $9,063.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $87.39 105 $9,176.47 $9,223.45 +$112.87
(+1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:15am ET $86.32 105 $9,063.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $85.44 105 $8,971.20 $9,131.05 $-92.40
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET $85.11 107 $9,107.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $84.24 107 $9,013.15 $9,036.89 $-94.16
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET $84.21 107 $9,010.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $84.32 107 $9,022.24 $9,048.66 +$11.77
(+0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:35am ET $83.54 108 $9,022.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $83.68 108 $9,037.44 $9,063.89 +$15.23
(+0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET $85.11 107 $9,107.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $82.75 107 $8,854.25 $8,810.84 $-253.05
(-2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
23d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $82.14 107 $8,789.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:50am ET $82.86 107 $8,866.55 $8,887.88 +$77.04
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET $82.83 107 $8,863.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 10:05am ET $82.25 107 $8,801.28 $8,825.82 $-62.06
(-0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 10:35am ET $82.34 107 $8,810.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:35am ET $81.81 107 $8,753.67 $8,769.11 $-56.71
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:15am ET $81.50 107 $8,721.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $82.53 107 $8,830.18 $8,878.25 +$109.14
(+1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:15am ET $81.50 107 $8,721.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $83.29 107 $8,911.50 $9,068.71 +$190.46
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:15am ET $83.14 109 $9,062.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:15am ET $82.21 109 $8,961.43 $8,967.34 $-101.37
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
26 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:15am ET $83.14 109 $9,062.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $82.39 109 $8,980.50 $8,885.03 $-82.31
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $82.39 107 $8,815.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $81.60 107 $8,731.19 $8,800.49 $-84.54
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:15pm ET $81.19 108 $8,768.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:15pm ET $80.67 108 $8,711.82 $8,743.79 $-56.70
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET $81.22 107 $8,691.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:35pm ET $81.65 107 $8,736.96 $8,789.67 +$45.88
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,789.67
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,210.33
Total Return: -12.10%
Back to Rebel Contraire