XLE Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 39 trades in period
+16.22%
Last 6 Months Return
$22,010.15
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$18,938.62
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
70
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
32.6/35
Total Return
17.3/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
5.2/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
70.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 69.7
30-Day Momentum
26
+3.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 34.7
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-44 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$18,938.62
Current Value
$22,010.15
Period P&L
$3,071.58
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
24 /
15
Best Trade
+6.16%
Worst Trade
-4.10%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
4.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,535,207.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,071.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,071.58
Gross Return
+16.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+16.22%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $18,938.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:15am ET | $60.74 | 311 | $18,890.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $61.97 | 311 | $19,273.79 | $19,322.21 |
+$383.65 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $63.08 | 306 | $19,302.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:10pm ET | $60.83 | 306 | $18,613.98 | $18,633.71 |
$-688.50 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:20pm ET | $58.47 | 318 | $18,591.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.17 | 318 | $19,132.47 | $19,174.28 |
+$540.57 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $59.22 | 323 | $19,128.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $60.46 | 323 | $19,526.97 | $19,572.38 |
+$398.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $57.31 | 341 | $19,542.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $58.67 | 341 | $20,006.47 | $20,036.14 |
+$463.76 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $56.90 | 352 | $20,027.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 10:10am ET | $55.63 | 352 | $19,583.52 | $19,592.62 |
$-443.52 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $56.49 | 346 | $19,547.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.39 | 346 | $18,819.63 | $18,864.98 |
$-727.64 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $55.53 | 339 | $18,826.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.67 | 339 | $19,211.13 | $19,249.74 |
+$384.76 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $56.67 | 339 | $19,211.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $57.49 | 339 | $19,490.80 | $19,529.42 |
+$279.68 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 12:45pm ET | $58.81 | 332 | $19,526.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:45pm ET | $59.26 | 332 | $19,672.66 | $19,675.50 |
+$146.08 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 1:20pm ET | $59.58 | 330 | $19,663.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.46 | 330 | $18,961.80 | $18,974.25 |
$-701.25 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $55.52 | 341 | $18,933.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:50am ET | $56.76 | 341 | $19,356.86 | $19,397.19 |
+$422.94 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 3:30pm ET | $57.68 | 336 | $19,380.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $58.88 | 336 | $19,782.00 | $19,798.71 |
+$401.52 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 12:40pm ET | $60.60 | 326 | $19,755.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.84 | 326 | $19,181.84 | $19,224.95 |
$-573.76 (-2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 1:30pm ET | $57.38 | 335 | $19,222.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $57.15 | 335 | $19,143.58 | $19,146.22 |
$-78.73 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 3:05pm ET | $58.06 | 329 | $19,103.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 12:15pm ET | $59.28 | 329 | $19,503.12 | $19,545.96 |
+$399.74 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 1:20pm ET | $58.90 | 331 | $19,494.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $57.08 | 331 | $18,895.13 | $18,946.85 |
$-599.11 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $58.54 | 323 | $18,910.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.71 | 323 | $18,315.72 | $18,352.53 |
$-594.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $55.22 | 332 | $18,331.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $53.37 | 332 | $17,717.18 | $17,738.33 |
$-614.20 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $53.42 | 332 | $17,733.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $54.51 | 332 | $18,095.66 | $18,100.21 |
+$361.88 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $53.31 | 339 | $18,070.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $54.01 | 339 | $18,311.08 | $18,340.90 |
+$240.69 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $53.31 | 339 | $18,070.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.13 | 339 | $18,011.07 | $18,281.58 |
$-59.32 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:25am ET | $54.08 | 338 | $18,280.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.32 | 338 | $18,698.16 | $18,699.01 |
+$417.43 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $55.04 | 339 | $18,658.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.24 | 339 | $19,063.67 | $19,104.11 |
+$405.10 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:50am ET | $56.53 | 337 | $19,050.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.68 | 337 | $19,438.16 | $19,491.67 |
+$387.55 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $57.89 | 336 | $19,451.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.21 | 336 | $19,892.88 | $19,933.51 |
+$441.84 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $59.90 | 332 | $19,888.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:10am ET | $58.06 | 332 | $19,275.72 | $19,320.77 |
$-612.74 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $55.04 | 339 | $18,658.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $58.43 | 339 | $19,807.77 | $20,469.98 |
+$1,149.21 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $58.56 | 349 | $20,435.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $57.81 | 349 | $20,175.65 | $20,209.94 |
$-260.04 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $57.69 | 350 | $20,189.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $58.99 | 350 | $20,644.75 | $20,664.94 |
+$455.00 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $60.56 | 341 | $20,652.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $61.85 | 341 | $21,090.85 | $21,103.12 |
+$438.18 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $62.12 | 339 | $21,058.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $63.43 | 339 | $21,502.77 | $21,547.21 |
+$444.09 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $64.08 | 336 | $21,530.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $63.08 | 336 | $21,196.56 | $21,212.89 |
$-334.32 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $64.08 | 336 | $21,530.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $61.45 | 336 | $20,647.20 | $20,329.21 |
$-883.68 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $62.19 | 326 | $20,273.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $63.92 | 326 | $20,836.29 | $20,891.56 |
+$562.35 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $62.19 | 326 | $20,273.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $65.33 | 326 | $21,297.58 | $21,915.20 |
+$1,023.64 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:00pm ET | $64.15 | 341 | $21,876.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.58 | 341 | $22,362.78 | $22,401.13 |
+$485.93 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $65.14 | 343 | $22,343.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:45pm ET | $66.00 | 343 | $22,636.29 | $22,694.40 |
+$293.27 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:25pm ET | $64.71 | 350 | $22,650.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $62.76 | 350 | $21,966.00 | $22,010.15 |
$-684.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$22,010.15
Net Profit/Loss:
+$12,010.15
Total Return:
+120.10%