XLK Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 43 trades in period
+8.29%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,827.39
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$9,998.87
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.9/35
Total Return
8.0/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
21.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 20.8
30-Day Momentum
5
-0.4%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,998.87
Current Value
$10,827.39
Period P&L
$828.52
Max Drawdown
-30.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
25 /
18
Best Trade
+5.66%
Worst Trade
-6.21%
Avg Trade Return
+0.23%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$982,502.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$828.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$828.52
Gross Return
+8.29%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.29%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,998.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:20pm ET | $137.42 | 72 | $9,894.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $133.14 | 72 | $9,586.40 | $9,703.63 |
$-307.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:10pm ET | $129.87 | 74 | $9,610.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:50pm ET | $132.49 | 74 | $9,804.26 | $9,897.88 |
+$194.25 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $134.61 | 73 | $9,826.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $136.68 | 73 | $9,978.00 | $10,049.35 |
+$151.47 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $135.50 | 74 | $10,027.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.16 | 74 | $10,594.21 | $10,616.56 |
+$567.21 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $140.95 | 75 | $10,571.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $143.83 | 75 | $10,787.25 | $10,832.56 |
+$216.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $146.45 | 73 | $10,690.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $149.42 | 73 | $10,907.66 | $11,049.37 |
+$216.81 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $151.35 | 73 | $11,048.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $154.41 | 73 | $11,272.29 | $11,272.75 |
+$223.38 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:50am ET | $153.51 | 73 | $11,205.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:25am ET | $156.73 | 73 | $11,441.29 | $11,508.17 |
+$235.42 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $157.38 | 73 | $11,488.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 11:45am ET | $156.54 | 73 | $11,427.42 | $11,446.85 |
$-61.32 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $157.82 | 72 | $11,362.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $161.19 | 72 | $11,605.68 | $11,689.85 |
+$243.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $162.49 | 71 | $11,536.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:15pm ET | $165.79 | 71 | $11,771.09 | $11,924.15 |
+$234.30 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 2:50pm ET | $169.16 | 70 | $11,841.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $172.78 | 70 | $12,094.60 | $12,177.63 |
+$253.48 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $176.35 | 69 | $12,168.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:15am ET | $179.91 | 69 | $12,413.79 | $12,423.27 |
+$245.64 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 11:50am ET | $176.71 | 70 | $12,369.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 10:20am ET | $170.92 | 70 | $11,964.40 | $12,017.97 |
$-405.30 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 11:30am ET | $176.33 | 68 | $11,990.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.91 | 68 | $12,233.88 | $12,261.41 |
+$243.44 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 11:10am ET | $184.89 | 66 | $12,202.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.46 | 66 | $12,504.36 | $12,563.03 |
+$301.62 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $192.74 | 65 | $12,528.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $196.74 | 65 | $12,788.10 | $12,823.03 |
+$260.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $194.86 | 65 | $12,665.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.53 | 65 | $12,254.45 | $12,411.58 |
$-411.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET | $185.56 | 66 | $12,246.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $179.99 | 66 | $11,879.34 | $12,043.96 |
$-367.62 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $177.95 | 67 | $11,922.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $181.60 | 67 | $12,167.20 | $12,288.84 |
+$244.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:00pm ET | $185.11 | 66 | $12,217.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.95 | 66 | $12,536.70 | $12,608.28 |
+$319.44 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $191.04 | 65 | $12,417.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $193.06 | 65 | $12,548.90 | $12,739.25 |
+$130.97 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $185.07 | 68 | $12,584.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.42 | 68 | $12,472.56 | $12,627.05 |
$-112.20 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $188.38 | 67 | $12,621.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $182.51 | 67 | $12,228.17 | $12,233.76 |
$-393.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $185.08 | 66 | $12,215.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $178.88 | 66 | $11,805.82 | $11,824.30 |
$-409.46 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $179.33 | 65 | $11,656.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.32 | 65 | $11,980.80 | $12,148.65 |
+$324.35 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $184.02 | 66 | $12,145.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $183.46 | 66 | $12,108.36 | $12,111.68 |
$-36.97 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $177.28 | 68 | $12,055.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $171.91 | 68 | $11,689.88 | $11,746.52 |
$-365.16 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $177.15 | 66 | $11,691.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 12:50pm ET | $180.71 | 66 | $11,926.86 | $11,981.81 |
+$235.29 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $180.58 | 66 | $11,918.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $175.12 | 66 | $11,557.92 | $11,621.45 |
$-360.36 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:40pm ET | $174.13 | 66 | $11,492.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $168.45 | 66 | $11,117.70 | $11,246.57 |
$-374.88 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $184.02 | 66 | $12,145.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.59 | 66 | $11,390.81 | $10,492.05 |
$-754.52 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $175.44 | 59 | $10,350.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.20 | 59 | $10,749.81 | $10,890.90 |
+$398.85 (+3.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $186.66 | 58 | $10,826.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $188.00 | 58 | $10,904.00 | $10,968.62 |
+$77.72 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:25am ET | $186.48 | 58 | $10,815.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $190.66 | 58 | $11,058.28 | $11,211.06 |
+$242.44 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 11:40am ET | $189.32 | 59 | $11,169.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $183.57 | 59 | $10,830.63 | $10,871.81 |
$-339.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $183.23 | 59 | $10,810.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $182.19 | 59 | $10,749.21 | $10,810.42 |
$-61.39 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $182.06 | 59 | $10,741.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.42 | 59 | $10,998.78 | $11,067.53 |
+$257.11 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $187.48 | 59 | $11,061.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $182.78 | 59 | $10,784.02 | $10,790.23 |
$-277.30 (-2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $187.48 | 59 | $11,061.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $185.49 | 59 | $10,943.91 | $10,672.82 |
$-117.41 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:00pm ET | $187.40 | 56 | $10,494.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $188.16 | 56 | $10,536.96 | $10,715.38 |
+$42.56 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $185.91 | 57 | $10,596.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:20pm ET | $183.94 | 57 | $10,484.58 | $10,603.09 |
$-112.29 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $185.16 | 57 | $10,554.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $189.10 | 57 | $10,778.70 | $10,827.39 |
+$224.30 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,827.39
Net Profit/Loss:
+$827.39
Total Return:
+8.27%