Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 21:21:27

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.2/35
Total Return
8.4/25
Win Rate
6.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 21.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 21.2

30-Day Momentum

5
-1.7%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,067
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
190 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,017.53
Current Value
$10,912.76
Period P&L
$-104.76
Max Drawdown
-27.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
63
Winners / Losers
35 / 28
Best Trade
+11.15%
Worst Trade
-5.25%
Avg Trade Return
+0.02%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,415,277.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-104.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$-104.76
Gross Return
-0.95%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.95%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 190 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 63 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,017.53 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET $231.95 47 $10,901.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET $224.97 47 $10,573.41 $10,689.53 $-328.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 2:35pm ET $232.57 45 $10,465.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:25am ET $237.33 45 $10,679.85 $10,903.73 +$214.20
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 11:15am ET $243.87 44 $10,730.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 11:15am ET $247.75 44 $10,901.00 $11,074.45 +$170.72
(+1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:30am ET $244.14 45 $10,986.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 11:50am ET $236.68 45 $10,650.60 $10,738.75 $-335.70
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 12:20pm ET $239.57 44 $10,541.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 12:20pm ET $233.42 44 $10,270.26 $10,467.93 $-270.82
(-2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 12:40pm ET $227.91 45 $10,255.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET $232.98 45 $10,484.10 $10,696.30 +$228.38
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:35am ET $237.84 44 $10,464.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 1:15pm ET $242.65 44 $10,676.60 $10,907.95 +$211.64
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 1:25pm ET $242.94 44 $10,689.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 1:25pm ET $243.59 44 $10,717.74 $10,936.33 +$28.38
(+0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 1:40pm ET $236.32 46 $10,870.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $224.82 46 $10,341.72 $10,407.33 $-529.00
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:00am ET $202.13 51 $10,308.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:15pm ET $207.10 51 $10,561.85 $10,660.71 +$253.38
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:15pm ET $210.32 50 $10,515.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $210.03 50 $10,501.50 $10,646.42 $-14.29
(-0.1%)
📅 Sim Ended
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET $197.31 53 $10,457.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET $201.51 53 $10,680.03 $10,869.02 +$222.60
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 11:25am ET $206.29 52 $10,727.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 11:00am ET $210.90 52 $10,966.80 $11,108.48 +$239.46
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 12:05pm ET $203.95 54 $11,013.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 11:05am ET $208.48 54 $11,257.92 $11,353.27 +$244.79
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23h held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 11:10am ET $210.07 54 $11,344.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 11:10am ET $208.01 54 $11,232.81 $11,242.03 $-111.24
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 11:20am ET $204.84 54 $11,061.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 3:10pm ET $208.96 54 $11,283.84 $11,464.51 +$222.48
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 3:15pm ET $216.37 52 $11,250.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET $209.60 52 $10,899.20 $11,112.73 $-351.78
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 11:15am ET $214.85 51 $10,957.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 11:15am ET $208.30 51 $10,623.30 $10,778.68 $-334.05
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 11:25am ET $208.23 51 $10,619.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $212.70 51 $10,847.70 $11,006.65 +$227.97
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 3:30pm ET $215.18 51 $10,974.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $207.05 51 $10,559.55 $10,592.02 $-414.63
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 11:30am ET $206.27 51 $10,519.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:35am ET $210.41 51 $10,730.91 $10,803.16 +$211.14
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:45am ET $206.97 52 $10,762.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $211.36 52 $10,990.72 $11,031.44 +$228.28
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 11:20am ET $211.78 52 $11,012.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $204.04 52 $10,610.08 $10,628.96 $-402.48
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $200.46 53 $10,624.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $204.88 53 $10,858.38 $10,863.22 +$234.26
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET $208.66 52 $10,850.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 12:00pm ET $213.11 52 $11,081.72 $11,094.36 +$231.14
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 12:05pm ET $209.54 52 $10,896.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 12:05pm ET $211.45 52 $10,995.40 $11,193.68 +$99.32
(+0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 1:10pm ET $221.99 50 $11,099.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 10:50am ET $227.68 50 $11,383.75 $11,477.68 +$284.00
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:35am ET $238.95 48 $11,469.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $245.23 48 $11,771.04 $11,779.36 +$301.68
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET $247.83 47 $11,647.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $255.01 47 $11,985.24 $12,116.79 +$337.43
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
30 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET $247.57 48 $11,883.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $253.46 48 $12,166.32 $12,399.87 +$283.08
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
31 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:30am ET $252.99 49 $12,396.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 11:10am ET $258.30 49 $12,656.70 $12,660.06 +$260.19
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
32 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $263.42 48 $12,644.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $263.44 48 $12,645.12 $12,661.02 +$0.96
(+0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
33 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 2:55pm ET $263.56 48 $12,650.88 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:05am ET $271.05 48 $13,010.40 $13,020.54 +$359.52
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held
34 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:00am ET $273.40 47 $12,849.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $270.16 47 $12,697.52 $12,868.26 $-152.28
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
35 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $266.35 48 $12,784.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $263.84 48 $12,664.42 $12,747.88 $-120.38
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
36 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:40am ET $260.29 48 $12,493.92 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 11:50am ET $265.57 48 $12,747.12 $13,001.08 +$253.20
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
37 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 12:10pm ET $268.85 48 $12,904.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 12:10pm ET $269.90 48 $12,955.20 $13,051.48 +$50.40
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
38 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 2:15pm ET $272.13 47 $12,790.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET $263.11 47 $12,366.40 $12,627.77 $-423.71
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:50am ET $259.98 48 $12,479.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:50am ET $251.88 48 $12,090.24 $12,238.73 $-389.04
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:55am ET $253.65 48 $12,175.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $245.97 48 $11,806.56 $11,870.09 $-368.64
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:50am ET $248.41 47 $11,675.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $240.88 47 $11,321.59 $11,516.41 $-353.68
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held
42 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 1:35pm ET $238.28 48 $11,437.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $243.21 48 $11,674.08 $11,753.19 +$236.78
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
43 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 11:30am ET $246.08 47 $11,565.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:00pm ET $238.36 47 $11,202.92 $11,390.35 $-362.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
44 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:55am ET $238.76 47 $11,221.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $226.23 47 $10,632.81 $10,801.44 $-588.91
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
45 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:50am ET $226.54 47 $10,647.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 10:45am ET $231.58 47 $10,884.26 $11,038.32 +$236.88
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
55m held
46 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:05am ET $243.36 45 $10,951.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $243.63 45 $10,963.13 $11,050.24 +$11.92
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:30am ET $245.03 45 $11,026.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $250.10 45 $11,254.28 $11,278.17 +$227.93
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 11:45am ET $248.25 45 $11,171.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:00am ET $253.46 45 $11,405.48 $11,512.40 +$234.23
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 2:15pm ET $253.62 45 $11,412.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $245.95 45 $11,067.75 $11,167.25 $-345.15
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $248.57 44 $10,937.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $236.28 44 $10,396.32 $10,626.48 $-540.76
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
51 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 1:05pm ET $233.18 45 $10,493.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 1:05pm ET $230.13 45 $10,355.85 $10,489.01 $-137.47
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
52 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 1:55pm ET $237.62 44 $10,455.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $264.11 44 $11,620.84 $11,654.79 +$1,165.78
(+11.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.6h held
53 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:05am ET $284.01 41 $11,644.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 11:30am ET $275.30 41 $11,287.50 $11,297.88 $-356.91
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
54 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 11:45am ET $273.65 41 $11,219.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 11:20am ET $279.18 41 $11,446.38 $11,524.61 +$226.73
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:40am ET $272.57 42 $11,447.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET $264.24 42 $11,098.08 $11,174.75 $-349.86
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
56 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET $261.60 42 $10,987.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $259.87 42 $10,914.54 $11,101.99 $-72.76
(-0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET $261.60 42 $10,987.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $261.27 42 $10,973.55 $11,088.24 $-13.75
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
9d held
58 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $257.92 42 $10,832.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:45am ET $263.63 42 $11,072.46 $11,328.06 +$239.82
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
59 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:25pm ET $260.95 43 $11,220.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.89 43 $11,046.48 $11,153.69 $-174.37
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held
60 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 10:40am ET $252.13 44 $11,093.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:00pm ET $257.25 44 $11,319.00 $11,378.97 +$225.28
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
61 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:55am ET $252.64 45 $11,368.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $244.88 45 $11,019.82 $11,030.08 $-348.89
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
62 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $251.44 43 $10,811.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $256.52 43 $11,030.36 $11,248.52 +$218.44
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held
63 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $256.09 43 $11,011.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET $248.28 43 $10,676.11 $10,912.76 $-335.76
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,912.76
Net Profit/Loss: +$912.76
Total Return: +9.13%
Back to Rebel Contraire