Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 03:57:53

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 11.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.7

30-Day Momentum

49
+7.2%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 60.9 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+38 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,308
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
188 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,302.22
Current Value
$7,678.08
Period P&L
$-3,624.14
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
69
Winners / Losers
37 / 32
Best Trade
+5.59%
Worst Trade
-12.31%
Avg Trade Return
-0.53%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,184,546.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,624.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,624.14
Gross Return
-32.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-32.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 188 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 69 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,302.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 10:10am ET $78.38 147 $11,522.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $80.16 147 $11,783.89 $11,790.63 +$261.38
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:35am ET $81.55 144 $11,743.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $81.59 144 $11,748.96 $11,796.39 +$5.76
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET $82.39 143 $11,781.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $79.66 143 $11,390.67 $11,405.29 $-391.11
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET $80.15 142 $11,381.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET $81.83 142 $11,619.86 $11,643.85 +$238.56
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 11:25am ET $81.46 142 $11,566.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 11:25am ET $79.34 142 $11,266.27 $11,343.50 $-300.34
(-2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 11:30am ET $76.96 147 $11,313.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 3:25pm ET $74.49 147 $10,950.03 $10,980.41 $-363.09
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 11:10am ET $73.78 148 $10,919.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET $71.39 148 $10,564.98 $10,625.95 $-354.46
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET $68.42 155 $10,605.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $66.28 155 $10,272.63 $10,293.48 $-332.47
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $72.29 142 $10,265.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $73.03 142 $10,370.26 $10,397.85 +$104.37
(+1.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
23.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET $68.47 151 $10,338.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET $70.17 151 $10,595.67 $10,654.55 +$256.70
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 11:20am ET $72.21 147 $10,614.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET $70.01 147 $10,292.20 $10,331.89 $-322.66
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET $70.67 146 $10,317.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $72.21 146 $10,541.93 $10,556.00 +$224.11
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 3:00pm ET $73.99 142 $10,505.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $71.01 142 $10,083.42 $10,133.55 $-422.45
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET $69.98 144 $10,077.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 11:15am ET $71.45 144 $10,288.80 $10,345.23 +$211.68
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
50m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 11:25am ET $74.50 138 $10,281.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $72.06 138 $9,944.28 $10,008.51 $-336.72
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 11:40am ET $72.44 138 $9,996.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:25pm ET $73.92 138 $10,200.96 $10,212.75 +$204.24
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET $72.84 140 $10,197.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:50pm ET $70.61 140 $9,885.40 $9,900.55 $-312.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 10:20am ET $72.26 137 $9,899.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $69.83 137 $9,566.71 $9,567.64 $-332.91
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET $70.74 135 $9,549.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 3:35pm ET $68.59 135 $9,259.65 $9,277.39 $-290.25
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:50pm ET $71.10 130 $9,243.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET $68.95 130 $8,963.50 $8,997.89 $-279.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $70.08 128 $8,970.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 1:10pm ET $67.96 128 $8,698.88 $8,726.53 $-271.36
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 1:20pm ET $64.82 134 $8,685.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:35pm ET $66.22 134 $8,873.48 $8,914.13 +$187.60
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:15pm ET $69.25 128 $8,864.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $66.05 128 $8,454.40 $8,504.53 $-409.60
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET $69.24 122 $8,447.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET $67.03 122 $8,177.66 $8,234.91 $-269.62
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:55am ET $70.72 116 $8,203.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 10:30am ET $68.54 116 $7,950.64 $7,982.03 $-252.88
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:35am ET $69.09 115 $7,945.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET $70.76 115 $8,137.97 $8,174.66 +$192.63
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 10:00am ET $74.12 110 $8,153.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $75.65 110 $8,321.50 $8,342.96 +$168.30
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET $75.90 109 $8,273.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:50am ET $77.42 109 $8,438.78 $8,508.64 +$165.68
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 12:45pm ET $79.90 106 $8,469.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $77.31 106 $8,194.86 $8,234.10 $-274.54
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
30 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $77.96 105 $8,185.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $75.53 105 $7,930.65 $7,978.95 $-255.15
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held
31 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET $76.93 103 $7,923.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $74.14 103 $7,636.42 $7,691.58 $-287.37
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
32 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:25pm ET $75.44 101 $7,619.44 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:35am ET $77.06 101 $7,783.06 $7,855.20 +$163.62
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
33 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:40am ET $77.78 100 $7,778.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $79.37 100 $7,937.00 $8,014.20 +$159.00
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
34 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 3:25pm ET $77.41 103 $7,973.23 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:00am ET $79.00 103 $8,137.00 $8,177.97 +$163.77
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
35 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:30am ET $78.26 104 $8,139.04 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $75.88 104 $7,891.52 $7,930.45 $-247.52
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
36 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $74.73 106 $7,921.38 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $76.30 106 $8,087.80 $8,096.87 +$166.42
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
37 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 1:55pm ET $77.16 104 $8,024.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 1:55pm ET $77.95 104 $8,106.80 $8,179.03 +$82.16
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
38 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 2:55pm ET $80.75 101 $8,156.25 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 12:10pm ET $82.38 101 $8,319.88 $8,342.65 +$163.62
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 12:15pm ET $81.13 102 $8,275.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $78.48 102 $8,005.16 $8,072.55 $-270.10
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 11:40am ET $80.43 100 $8,043.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $77.95 100 $7,795.00 $7,824.55 $-248.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:55am ET $75.82 103 $7,809.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:55am ET $73.27 103 $7,546.81 $7,561.90 $-262.65
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
42 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:10pm ET $74.38 101 $7,512.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:10am ET $75.89 101 $7,664.39 $7,713.91 +$152.01
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
43 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $79.74 96 $7,654.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $79.83 96 $7,663.35 $7,722.70 +$8.79
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
44 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET $76.92 100 $7,692.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:35am ET $78.70 100 $7,870.00 $7,900.70 +$178.00
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
45 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $80.46 98 $7,885.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:00am ET $82.12 98 $8,047.76 $8,062.89 +$162.19
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
46 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET $76.92 100 $7,692.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $81.22 100 $8,122.00 $8,492.89 +$430.00
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:40am ET $82.76 102 $8,441.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $79.82 102 $8,141.64 $8,193.01 $-299.88
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 10:10am ET $81.47 100 $8,147.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $78.95 100 $7,895.00 $7,941.01 $-252.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET $78.87 100 $7,887.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $80.61 100 $8,061.00 $8,115.01 +$174.00
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $77.61 104 $8,070.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $74.50 104 $7,748.00 $7,792.09 $-322.92
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
51 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:50am ET $75.39 103 $7,765.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:55am ET $76.93 103 $7,923.79 $7,950.71 +$158.62
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
52 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 10:10am ET $76.93 103 $7,923.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET $74.31 103 $7,653.93 $7,680.85 $-269.86
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
53 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET $71.48 107 $7,648.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $73.03 107 $7,814.21 $7,846.69 +$165.84
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
54 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 11:00am ET $70.95 110 $7,804.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 11:25am ET $72.41 110 $7,965.10 $8,007.29 +$160.60
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
25m held
55 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 10:10am ET $81.47 100 $8,147.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $71.44 100 $7,144.00 $7,004.29 $-1,003.00
(-12.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
56 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $72.49 96 $6,959.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET $70.11 96 $6,730.56 $6,775.78 $-228.51
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 11:10am ET $73.04 92 $6,720.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $74.78 92 $6,879.76 $6,935.40 +$159.62
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
58 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:20am ET $77.11 89 $6,862.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 11:25am ET $78.67 89 $7,001.63 $7,074.24 +$138.84
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
59 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 11:25am ET $80.11 88 $7,049.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $81.90 88 $7,207.20 $7,231.76 +$157.52
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
60 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 10:40am ET $82.26 87 $7,156.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 10:10am ET $79.57 87 $6,922.59 $6,997.73 $-234.03
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
61 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 11:10am ET $82.47 84 $6,927.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $84.44 84 $7,092.96 $7,163.21 +$165.48
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
62 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $84.74 84 $7,118.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:35am ET $86.43 84 $7,260.54 $7,305.59 +$142.38
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
63 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET $85.73 85 $7,287.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:40am ET $87.44 85 $7,432.82 $7,451.36 +$145.77
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
64 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:10am ET $86.39 86 $7,429.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:55am ET $83.67 86 $7,195.62 $7,217.44 $-233.92
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
65 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 10:55am ET $84.00 85 $7,139.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:15am ET $85.82 85 $7,295.12 $7,372.99 +$155.55
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
66 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:20pm ET $86.15 85 $7,322.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 1:20pm ET $84.95 85 $7,220.75 $7,270.99 $-102.00
(-1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
67 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:35pm ET $83.52 87 $7,266.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:35pm ET $83.84 87 $7,294.08 $7,298.83 +$27.84
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
68 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:55pm ET $83.56 87 $7,269.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $85.33 87 $7,423.71 $7,453.26 +$154.43
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.6h held
69 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET $87.48 85 $7,435.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $90.13 85 $7,660.63 $7,678.08 +$224.82
(+3.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,678.08
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,321.92
Total Return: -23.22%
Back to Rebel Contraire