DIA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 45 trades in period
+8.85%
Year to Date Return
$14,400.41
Current Value
49%
Win Rate
$13,229.70
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.5%
ATR%
1.0%
Range Pos
78%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
43
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.3/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality
43.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 42.9
30-Day Momentum
3
-1.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-40 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,073
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$13,229.70
Current Value
$14,400.41
Period P&L
$1,170.73
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
22 /
23
Best Trade
+3.35%
Worst Trade
-3.01%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
5.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,220,910.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,170.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,170.73
Gross Return
+8.85%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.85%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 DIA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,229.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:05am ET | $483.82 | 27 | $13,063.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $487.22 | 27 | $13,154.94 | $13,397.62 |
+$91.80 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $490.99 | 27 | $13,256.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $490.35 | 27 | $13,239.32 | $13,380.21 |
$-17.41 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $494.13 | 27 | $13,341.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $486.58 | 27 | $13,137.66 | $13,176.36 |
$-203.85 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $489.11 | 26 | $12,716.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $492.22 | 26 | $12,797.72 | $13,257.22 |
+$80.86 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:00pm ET | $490.38 | 27 | $13,240.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $489.99 | 27 | $13,229.73 | $13,246.69 |
$-10.53 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $493.86 | 26 | $12,840.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.15 | 26 | $13,003.90 | $13,410.23 |
+$163.54 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $504.08 | 26 | $13,106.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $504.08 | 26 | $13,106.08 | $13,410.23 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $493.71 | 27 | $13,330.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $494.34 | 27 | $13,347.18 | $13,427.24 |
+$17.01 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $490.27 | 27 | $13,237.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $484.37 | 27 | $13,077.99 | $13,267.94 |
$-159.30 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $480.26 | 27 | $12,967.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $470.74 | 27 | $12,709.98 | $13,010.90 |
$-257.04 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $477.42 | 27 | $12,890.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $470.30 | 27 | $12,698.10 | $12,818.66 |
$-192.24 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $473.91 | 27 | $12,795.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $459.63 | 27 | $12,410.01 | $12,433.10 |
$-385.56 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $458.52 | 27 | $12,380.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $466.59 | 27 | $12,597.93 | $12,650.99 |
+$217.89 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $461.75 | 27 | $12,467.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $456.00 | 27 | $12,312.00 | $12,495.74 |
$-155.25 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $464.87 | 26 | $12,086.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $464.54 | 26 | $12,078.04 | $12,487.16 |
$-8.58 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $463.40 | 26 | $12,048.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $478.92 | 26 | $12,451.92 | $12,890.68 |
+$403.52 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $478.15 | 26 | $12,431.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:10am ET | $484.56 | 26 | $12,598.56 | $13,057.34 |
+$166.66 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $483.40 | 27 | $13,051.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $493.70 | 27 | $13,329.77 | $13,335.31 |
+$277.97 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $493.24 | 27 | $13,317.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $491.62 | 27 | $13,273.74 | $13,291.57 |
$-43.74 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $492.29 | 26 | $12,799.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $493.62 | 26 | $12,834.12 | $13,326.15 |
+$34.58 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $490.29 | 27 | $13,237.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.90 | 27 | $13,524.30 | $13,612.62 |
+$286.47 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $496.92 | 27 | $13,416.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $495.45 | 27 | $13,377.02 | $13,572.79 |
$-39.83 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 12:35pm ET | $500.74 | 27 | $13,519.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 12:35pm ET | $495.27 | 27 | $13,372.16 | $13,424.97 |
$-147.82 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 12:35pm ET | $498.24 | 26 | $12,954.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 1:30pm ET | $508.53 | 26 | $13,221.78 | $13,692.51 |
+$267.54 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $504.17 | 27 | $13,612.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $509.98 | 27 | $13,769.46 | $13,849.38 |
+$156.87 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $509.37 | 27 | $13,752.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $510.60 | 27 | $13,786.20 | $13,882.59 |
+$33.21 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $512.57 | 27 | $13,839.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $519.47 | 27 | $14,025.69 | $14,068.89 |
+$186.30 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $521.03 | 27 | $14,067.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $516.74 | 27 | $13,951.98 | $13,953.06 |
$-115.83 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $513.82 | 27 | $13,873.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:15am ET | $525.60 | 27 | $14,191.20 | $14,271.12 |
+$318.06 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 10:40am ET | $518.80 | 27 | $14,007.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $523.30 | 27 | $14,129.10 | $14,392.62 |
+$121.50 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $513.82 | 27 | $13,873.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $528.81 | 27 | $14,277.87 | $14,797.35 |
+$404.73 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $528.16 | 28 | $14,788.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $526.96 | 28 | $14,754.88 | $14,763.89 |
$-33.46 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $524.67 | 28 | $14,690.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $522.23 | 28 | $14,622.44 | $14,695.43 |
$-68.46 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $521.58 | 28 | $14,604.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $524.71 | 28 | $14,691.88 | $14,783.07 |
+$87.64 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $528.16 | 28 | $14,788.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $517.70 | 28 | $14,495.46 | $14,490.19 |
$-292.88 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:00am ET | $521.41 | 27 | $14,078.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $537.65 | 27 | $14,516.55 | $14,928.54 |
+$438.35 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $545.95 | 27 | $14,740.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $539.72 | 27 | $14,572.44 | $14,760.33 |
$-168.21 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $538.89 | 27 | $14,549.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $535.48 | 27 | $14,458.09 | $14,668.53 |
$-91.80 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $532.98 | 27 | $14,390.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $532.67 | 27 | $14,382.09 | $14,660.02 |
$-8.51 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $532.98 | 27 | $14,390.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $535.23 | 27 | $14,451.21 | $14,720.63 |
+$60.61 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $533.76 | 27 | $14,411.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $529.15 | 27 | $14,287.05 | $14,596.16 |
$-124.47 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $533.76 | 27 | $14,411.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $537.01 | 27 | $14,499.27 | $14,683.91 |
+$87.75 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $533.93 | 27 | $14,416.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 1:25pm ET | $525.20 | 27 | $14,180.40 | $14,448.07 |
$-235.84 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $520.66 | 27 | $14,057.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $520.28 | 27 | $14,047.56 | $14,437.81 |
$-10.26 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:20pm ET | $520.93 | 27 | $14,065.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 2:20pm ET | $519.54 | 27 | $14,027.71 | $14,400.41 |
$-37.40 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,400.41
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,400.41
Total Return:
+44.00%