Compendium › Rebel Contraire › HD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
HD
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 27 trades in period

-12.21%
Year to Date Return
$10,691.17
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$12,178.18
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 13:48:29

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
7.5/25
Win Rate
4.4/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 18.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 18.5

30-Day Momentum

6
-2.8%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,436
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,178.18
Current Value
$10,691.17
Period P&L
$-1,487.00
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.22

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
9 / 18
Best Trade
+3.17%
Worst Trade
-4.19%
Avg Trade Return
-0.48%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$626,931.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,487.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,487.00
Gross Return
-12.21%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.21%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,178.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 10:10am ET $344.94 35 $12,072.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $343.17 35 $12,010.95 $12,132.32 $-61.85
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:20am ET $345.33 35 $12,086.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $356.29 35 $12,469.98 $12,515.75 +$383.43
(+3.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $346.78 36 $12,483.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 10:05am ET $354.79 36 $12,772.44 $12,804.29 +$288.54
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
36m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 12:35pm ET $372.85 34 $12,676.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 12:35pm ET $377.73 34 $12,842.82 $12,970.21 +$165.92
(+1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 3:50pm ET $378.74 34 $12,877.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 3:50pm ET $375.43 34 $12,764.45 $12,857.50 $-112.71
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:55am ET $384.99 33 $12,704.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 9:55am ET $383.56 33 $12,657.48 $12,810.31 $-47.19
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 10:50am ET $378.95 33 $12,505.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:50am ET $374.32 33 $12,352.56 $12,657.52 $-152.79
(-1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET $385.03 32 $12,320.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $383.88 32 $12,284.00 $12,620.56 $-36.96
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET $384.77 32 $12,312.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $389.74 32 $12,471.84 $12,779.76 +$159.20
(+1.3%) 		📅 Sim Ended
2.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:10am ET $382.95 33 $12,637.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $381.00 33 $12,573.00 $12,715.41 $-64.35
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 11:00am ET $388.87 32 $12,443.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:55am ET $376.00 32 $12,032.00 $12,303.57 $-411.84
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:00am ET $378.85 32 $12,123.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $362.99 32 $11,615.68 $11,796.21 $-507.36
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 10:25am ET $365.19 32 $11,686.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:50am ET $353.65 32 $11,316.72 $11,426.85 $-369.36
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 10:10am ET $345.92 33 $11,415.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $353.84 33 $11,676.72 $11,688.21 +$261.36
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET $357.79 32 $11,449.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET $346.21 32 $11,078.72 $11,317.65 $-370.56
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 9:50am ET $341.73 33 $11,277.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET $338.24 33 $11,161.92 $11,202.48 $-115.17
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 10:00am ET $329.42 34 $11,200.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:00am ET $325.97 34 $11,083.01 $11,085.21 $-117.27
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 1:05pm ET $331.57 33 $10,941.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET $321.60 33 $10,612.64 $10,756.20 $-329.01
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:30pm ET $324.73 33 $10,716.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:55am ET $332.00 33 $10,956.00 $10,996.11 +$239.91
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:55am ET $320.51 34 $10,897.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:55am ET $319.52 34 $10,863.68 $10,962.45 $-33.66
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:55am ET $336.05 32 $10,753.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET $333.13 32 $10,660.00 $10,868.84 $-93.61
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 10:40am ET $341.13 31 $10,575.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:05am ET $348.52 31 $10,804.12 $11,097.93 +$229.09
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:40am ET $345.61 32 $11,059.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET $352.54 32 $11,281.28 $11,319.69 +$221.76
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:30am ET $341.65 33 $11,274.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:30am ET $333.85 33 $11,017.05 $11,062.29 $-257.40
(-2.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 12:35pm ET $329.80 33 $10,883.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:00am ET $319.85 33 $10,555.05 $10,734.10 $-328.19
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 11:00am ET $327.77 32 $10,488.48 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 11:25am ET $317.93 32 $10,173.63 $10,419.25 $-314.85
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
27 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $313.78 33 $10,354.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $322.02 33 $10,626.66 $10,691.17 +$271.92
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,691.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$691.17
Total Return: +6.91%
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