Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:04:06

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 12.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.9

30-Day Momentum

63
+9.1%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 72.6 Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+51 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,801
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
188 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,312.34
Current Value
$8,852.39
Period P&L
$-3,459.98
Max Drawdown
-39.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
63
Winners / Losers
29 / 34
Best Trade
+5.79%
Worst Trade
-14.43%
Avg Trade Return
-0.48%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,224,903.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,459.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,459.98
Gross Return
-28.10%
Net Return (after fees)
-28.10%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 188 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 63 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,312.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 10:10am ET $571.87 21 $12,009.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $561.03 21 $11,781.63 $12,147.52 $-227.64
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:15am ET $586.76 20 $11,735.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:30am ET $599.07 20 $11,981.30 $12,393.62 +$246.10
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 12:45pm ET $588.83 21 $12,365.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:05am ET $571.10 21 $11,993.10 $12,021.29 $-372.33
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET $557.13 21 $11,699.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:55am ET $539.64 21 $11,332.44 $11,654.10 $-367.19
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 10:50am ET $543.45 21 $11,412.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:50am ET $528.42 21 $11,096.78 $11,338.54 $-315.57
(-2.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET $523.63 21 $10,996.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET $539.21 21 $11,323.41 $11,665.72 +$327.18
(+3.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 1:25pm ET $529.65 22 $11,652.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET $512.76 22 $11,280.61 $11,294.03 $-371.69
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:25am ET $503.44 22 $11,075.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:55am ET $488.08 22 $10,737.76 $10,956.11 $-337.92
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:10am ET $475.79 23 $10,943.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $485.65 23 $11,170.06 $11,183.00 +$226.89
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:55am ET $486.30 22 $10,698.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET $497.84 22 $10,952.48 $11,436.77 +$253.77
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:30am ET $489.14 23 $11,250.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 9:55am ET $499.70 23 $11,493.21 $11,679.76 +$242.99
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 11:15am ET $500.84 23 $11,519.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 11:15am ET $494.15 23 $11,365.45 $11,525.83 $-153.93
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 1:05pm ET $502.60 22 $11,057.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 1:05pm ET $497.61 22 $10,947.42 $11,416.05 $-109.78
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 1:15pm ET $489.77 23 $11,264.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:25am ET $501.05 23 $11,524.15 $11,675.37 +$259.32
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 10:25am ET $493.23 23 $11,344.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 11:25am ET $490.53 23 $11,282.19 $11,613.16 $-62.21
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 11:45am ET $483.77 24 $11,610.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 11:40am ET $460.16 24 $11,043.84 $11,046.64 $-566.52
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:00pm ET $481.44 22 $10,591.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 9:35am ET $492.53 22 $10,835.66 $11,290.62 +$243.98
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET $477.03 23 $10,971.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $488.14 23 $11,227.33 $11,546.26 +$255.64
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $473.75 24 $11,370.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $459.52 24 $11,028.60 $11,204.86 $-341.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET $454.74 24 $10,913.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $465.48 24 $11,171.45 $11,462.55 +$257.69
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $455.33 25 $11,383.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $451.01 25 $11,275.13 $11,354.43 $-108.12
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:45am ET $465.77 24 $11,178.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $451.21 24 $10,829.16 $11,005.23 $-349.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET $452.21 24 $10,853.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $467.54 24 $11,220.84 $11,372.91 +$367.68
(+3.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:25am ET $470.63 24 $11,295.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 10:05am ET $456.14 24 $10,947.48 $11,025.27 $-347.64
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 11:00am ET $470.36 23 $10,818.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 12:15pm ET $456.21 23 $10,492.83 $10,699.71 $-325.56
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:00pm ET $485.32 22 $10,677.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 1:00pm ET $473.82 22 $10,424.04 $10,446.71 $-253.00
(-2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:20pm ET $463.93 22 $10,206.57 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $456.98 22 $10,053.56 $10,293.70 $-153.01
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
28 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:20am ET $456.09 22 $10,033.98 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $444.50 22 $9,779.00 $10,038.72 $-254.98
(-2.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
29 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 12:50pm ET $434.32 23 $9,989.36 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 3:10pm ET $420.89 23 $9,680.47 $9,729.83 $-308.89
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
30 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $446.11 21 $9,368.31 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $441.03 21 $9,261.64 $9,623.16 $-106.67
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
31 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $436.17 22 $9,595.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 11:45am ET $422.45 22 $9,293.90 $9,321.32 $-301.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
32 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 2:50pm ET $423.43 22 $9,315.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $406.57 22 $8,944.43 $8,950.18 $-371.14
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
33 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:05am ET $400.95 22 $8,820.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $414.59 22 $9,120.98 $9,250.37 +$300.19
(+3.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held
34 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:50am ET $422.53 21 $8,873.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:50am ET $422.37 21 $8,869.77 $9,247.01 $-3.36
(-0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
35 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 10:05am ET $410.57 22 $9,032.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:40am ET $419.42 22 $9,227.24 $9,441.67 +$194.66
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
36 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 11:10am ET $419.26 22 $9,223.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $405.06 22 $8,911.32 $9,129.27 $-312.40
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
37 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 3:00pm ET $406.51 22 $8,943.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 3:00pm ET $401.11 22 $8,824.42 $9,010.47 $-118.80
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
38 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 3:15pm ET $403.42 22 $8,875.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 10:15am ET $411.58 22 $9,054.76 $9,189.99 +$179.52
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
19h held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:50am ET $405.10 22 $8,912.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:45am ET $413.61 22 $9,099.53 $9,377.32 +$187.33
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 12:00pm ET $401.01 23 $9,223.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET $410.98 23 $9,452.54 $9,606.74 +$229.43
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
41 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:45pm ET $437.82 21 $9,194.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $421.90 21 $8,859.90 $9,272.42 $-334.32
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
42 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $410.36 22 $9,027.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $388.79 22 $8,553.38 $8,797.95 $-474.47
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
43 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:20pm ET $391.38 22 $8,610.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $400.00 22 $8,800.00 $8,987.59 +$189.64
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held
44 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:00am ET $357.81 25 $8,945.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $346.83 25 $8,670.75 $8,713.09 $-274.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held
45 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 10:35am ET $358.05 24 $8,593.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:45am ET $346.43 24 $8,314.44 $8,434.33 $-278.76
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
46 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:45am ET $331.24 25 $8,281.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:15am ET $338.35 25 $8,458.75 $8,612.08 +$177.75
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:50am ET $354.77 24 $8,514.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $373.98 24 $8,975.40 $9,073.00 +$460.92
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $410.36 22 $9,027.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $351.13 22 $7,724.75 $7,769.90 $-1,303.10
(-14.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET $350.76 22 $7,716.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $371.06 22 $8,163.32 $8,216.50 +$446.60
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
50 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:50am ET $368.34 22 $8,103.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $375.89 22 $8,269.69 $8,382.71 +$166.21
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
51 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 10:20am ET $373.78 22 $8,223.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:40am ET $382.94 22 $8,424.68 $8,584.23 +$201.52
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
52 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 10:55am ET $399.45 21 $8,388.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $391.30 21 $8,217.40 $8,413.18 $-171.05
(-2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
53 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:25am ET $397.95 21 $8,356.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 1:00pm ET $383.58 21 $8,055.18 $8,111.41 $-301.77
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
54 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:10pm ET $379.48 21 $7,968.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:30am ET $367.96 21 $7,727.16 $7,869.59 $-241.82
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET $367.98 21 $7,727.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:30am ET $372.29 21 $7,818.09 $7,960.10 +$90.51
(+1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
56 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 10:40am ET $370.41 21 $7,778.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET $380.45 21 $7,989.45 $8,170.94 +$210.84
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET $367.98 21 $7,727.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:35am ET $368.31 21 $7,734.51 $8,177.87 +$6.93
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held
58 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 2:20pm ET $365.71 22 $8,045.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:40am ET $354.34 22 $7,795.48 $7,927.62 $-250.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
59 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 1:45pm ET $350.88 22 $7,719.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:50am ET $358.72 22 $7,891.84 $8,100.10 +$172.48
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held
60 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET $364.95 22 $8,028.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $373.80 22 $8,223.60 $8,294.80 +$194.70
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
61 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $372.03 22 $8,184.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET $381.71 22 $8,397.62 $8,507.76 +$212.96
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
62 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET $378.59 22 $8,328.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $386.34 22 $8,499.48 $8,678.26 +$170.50
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3h held
63 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 1:35pm ET $391.79 22 $8,619.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 12:50pm ET $399.70 22 $8,793.51 $8,852.39 +$174.13
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,852.39
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,147.61
Total Return: -11.48%
Back to Rebel Contraire