MCD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 46 trades in period
-13.73%
Year to Date Return
$9,246.40
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$10,718.25
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
8.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 8.6
30-Day Momentum
4
-9.1%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7
Conf: 0.78×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,868
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
186 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,718.25
Current Value
$9,246.40
Period P&L
$-1,471.91
Max Drawdown
-15.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
18 /
28
Best Trade
+3.69%
Worst Trade
-4.09%
Avg Trade Return
-0.32%
Avg Hold Time
5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$958,938.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,471.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,471.91
Gross Return
-13.73%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.73%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 186 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,718.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 2:25pm ET | $308.13 | 34 | $10,476.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.21 | 34 | $10,241.14 | $10,540.15 |
$-235.28 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $299.53 | 35 | $10,483.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.99 | 35 | $10,709.71 | $10,766.48 |
+$226.33 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:05pm ET | $308.37 | 34 | $10,484.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:05pm ET | $307.77 | 34 | $10,464.18 | $10,746.08 |
$-20.40 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $304.96 | 35 | $10,673.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $305.69 | 35 | $10,699.15 | $10,771.63 |
+$25.55 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $304.03 | 35 | $10,641.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $313.39 | 35 | $10,968.48 | $11,099.06 |
+$327.43 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:00pm ET | $313.45 | 35 | $10,970.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $318.99 | 35 | $11,164.56 | $11,292.87 |
+$193.81 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $321.55 | 35 | $11,254.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $326.64 | 35 | $11,432.40 | $11,471.20 |
+$178.33 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $325.28 | 35 | $11,384.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $325.11 | 35 | $11,378.85 | $11,465.25 |
$-5.95 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $327.62 | 34 | $11,139.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $330.25 | 34 | $11,228.50 | $11,554.67 |
+$89.42 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $334.45 | 34 | $11,371.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $341.28 | 34 | $11,603.52 | $11,787.06 |
+$232.39 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $330.05 | 35 | $11,551.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.90 | 35 | $11,406.67 | $11,641.99 |
$-145.07 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $328.29 | 35 | $11,490.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $328.28 | 35 | $11,489.80 | $11,641.64 |
$-0.35 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $329.26 | 35 | $11,524.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 11:40am ET | $319.30 | 35 | $11,175.33 | $11,292.92 |
$-348.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $312.74 | 36 | $11,258.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $309.61 | 36 | $11,145.96 | $11,180.24 |
$-112.68 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 2:55pm ET | $311.86 | 35 | $10,915.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:55pm ET | $309.59 | 35 | $10,835.65 | $11,100.79 |
$-79.45 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $305.11 | 36 | $10,983.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $307.99 | 36 | $11,087.64 | $11,204.65 |
+$103.86 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 10:30am ET | $307.84 | 36 | $11,082.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $304.39 | 36 | $10,958.22 | $11,080.63 |
$-124.02 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $302.08 | 36 | $10,874.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $308.57 | 36 | $11,108.52 | $11,314.27 |
+$233.64 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $308.47 | 36 | $11,104.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $297.54 | 36 | $10,711.26 | $10,920.73 |
$-393.54 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $291.08 | 37 | $10,769.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $286.58 | 37 | $10,603.46 | $10,754.23 |
$-166.50 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $284.54 | 37 | $10,527.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 3:05pm ET | $275.98 | 37 | $10,211.26 | $10,437.70 |
$-316.53 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $276.67 | 37 | $10,236.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $275.75 | 37 | $10,202.75 | $10,403.48 |
$-34.22 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $283.74 | 36 | $10,214.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $280.07 | 36 | $10,082.52 | $10,271.36 |
$-132.12 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $281.48 | 36 | $10,133.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $277.53 | 36 | $9,991.08 | $10,129.16 |
$-142.20 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $275.27 | 36 | $9,909.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $277.81 | 36 | $10,001.16 | $10,220.78 |
+$91.62 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $284.36 | 35 | $9,952.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $284.06 | 35 | $9,942.10 | $10,210.28 |
$-10.50 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $286.89 | 35 | $10,041.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 3:15pm ET | $278.15 | 35 | $9,735.25 | $9,904.38 |
$-305.90 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $272.23 | 36 | $9,800.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $271.16 | 36 | $9,761.76 | $9,866.04 |
$-38.34 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $269.31 | 36 | $9,695.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:10am ET | $275.41 | 36 | $9,914.76 | $10,085.64 |
+$219.60 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $274.61 | 36 | $9,885.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $284.73 | 36 | $10,250.28 | $10,449.96 |
+$364.32 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $281.02 | 37 | $10,397.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $273.16 | 37 | $10,106.92 | $10,159.14 |
$-290.82 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $270.31 | 37 | $10,001.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $276.20 | 37 | $10,219.40 | $10,377.07 |
+$217.93 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $268.22 | 38 | $10,192.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $267.55 | 38 | $10,166.90 | $10,351.61 |
$-25.46 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $281.02 | 37 | $10,397.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $269.52 | 37 | $9,972.24 | $9,926.11 |
$-425.50 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:35am ET | $268.59 | 36 | $9,669.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $275.40 | 36 | $9,914.40 | $10,171.27 |
+$245.16 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 11:35am ET | $269.27 | 37 | $9,962.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $274.93 | 37 | $10,172.59 | $10,380.88 |
+$209.61 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $273.79 | 37 | $10,130.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 11:25am ET | $272.18 | 37 | $10,070.66 | $10,321.31 |
$-59.57 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 11:30am ET | $273.58 | 37 | $10,122.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $267.11 | 37 | $9,883.07 | $10,081.73 |
$-239.58 (-2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 12:50pm ET | $268.66 | 37 | $9,940.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $271.00 | 37 | $10,027.00 | $10,168.31 |
+$86.58 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 12:50pm ET | $268.66 | 37 | $9,940.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $268.88 | 37 | $9,948.56 | $10,176.45 |
+$8.14 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $265.36 | 38 | $10,083.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $262.17 | 38 | $9,962.46 | $10,055.23 |
$-121.22 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $265.36 | 38 | $10,083.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $258.80 | 38 | $9,834.59 | $9,806.14 |
$-249.09 (-2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $256.71 | 38 | $9,754.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $253.96 | 38 | $9,650.48 | $9,701.64 |
$-104.50 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 12:45pm ET | $254.18 | 38 | $9,659.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $254.59 | 38 | $9,674.23 | $9,716.84 |
+$15.20 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $250.98 | 38 | $9,537.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 2:05pm ET | $247.91 | 38 | $9,420.58 | $9,600.18 |
$-116.66 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $250.75 | 38 | $9,528.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $241.44 | 38 | $9,174.72 | $9,246.40 |
$-353.78 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,246.40
Net Profit/Loss:
$-753.60
Total Return:
-7.54%