Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:06:16

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.9/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 35.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 35.7

30-Day Momentum

9
-2.8%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.1 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,845
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
187 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$16,992.69
Current Value
$14,558.39
Period P&L
$-2,434.29
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
60
Winners / Losers
30 / 30
Best Trade
+6.58%
Worst Trade
-6.28%
Avg Trade Return
-0.23%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,873,051.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,434.29
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,434.29
Gross Return
-14.33%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.33%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 187 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 60 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $16,992.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET $178.93 95 $16,998.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $184.28 95 $17,506.61 $17,628.24 +$508.50
(+3.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 1:20pm ET $188.46 93 $17,526.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $184.52 93 $17,160.36 $17,261.98 $-366.26
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET $184.87 93 $17,192.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 12:15pm ET $179.19 93 $16,664.67 $16,733.97 $-528.01
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 12:15pm ET $191.03 87 $16,619.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $184.51 87 $16,052.38 $16,167.18 $-566.80
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:55am ET $183.79 87 $15,989.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 12:55pm ET $178.26 87 $15,508.75 $15,686.63 $-480.54
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 12:55pm ET $181.68 86 $15,624.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $182.57 86 $15,701.02 $15,763.17 +$76.54
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $185.64 84 $15,593.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:50pm ET $179.59 84 $15,085.14 $15,254.55 $-508.62
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 1:10pm ET $179.04 85 $15,218.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:25am ET $173.66 85 $14,761.10 $14,797.25 $-457.30
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:45am ET $179.90 82 $14,751.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 2:10pm ET $183.77 82 $15,069.55 $15,115.00 +$317.75
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:15am ET $171.38 88 $15,081.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 9:40am ET $175.66 88 $15,458.52 $15,491.64 +$376.64
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 9:40am ET $174.29 88 $15,337.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 10:35am ET $169.01 88 $14,872.44 $15,026.33 $-465.31
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 11:50am ET $167.81 89 $14,935.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 10:25am ET $171.43 89 $15,257.71 $15,348.96 +$322.63
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:05am ET $176.22 87 $15,331.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET $169.77 87 $14,770.42 $14,788.24 $-560.72
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:35am ET $167.64 88 $14,752.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $162.52 88 $14,301.76 $14,337.68 $-450.56
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:45am ET $166.99 85 $14,194.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 1:25pm ET $161.98 85 $13,768.30 $13,911.83 $-425.85
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 1:25pm ET $159.35 87 $13,863.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 10:15am ET $154.55 87 $13,445.85 $13,494.23 $-417.60
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:15am ET $160.23 84 $13,459.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $163.44 84 $13,728.96 $13,763.87 +$269.64
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 10:20am ET $154.04 89 $13,709.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:50am ET $157.26 89 $13,996.58 $14,050.90 +$287.03
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 11:05am ET $158.90 88 $13,983.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 12:50pm ET $162.08 88 $14,263.04 $14,330.61 +$279.71
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 1:05pm ET $164.30 87 $14,294.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET $168.17 87 $14,630.44 $14,666.52 +$335.91
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 10:05am ET $165.71 88 $14,582.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $159.57 88 $14,041.72 $14,126.19 $-540.33
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $159.33 88 $14,021.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $163.00 88 $14,344.00 $14,449.15 +$322.96
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 12:50pm ET $166.92 86 $14,355.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $161.57 86 $13,895.02 $13,989.05 $-460.10
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET $166.04 84 $13,946.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $176.96 84 $14,864.64 $14,906.75 +$917.70
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $175.39 84 $14,732.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:45pm ET $178.98 84 $15,034.32 $15,208.31 +$301.56
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm ET $184.32 82 $15,114.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $188.49 82 $15,456.18 $15,550.25 +$341.94
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:40am ET $188.44 82 $15,452.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $192.23 82 $15,762.86 $15,861.03 +$310.78
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 10:25am ET $191.49 82 $15,702.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET $189.18 82 $15,512.76 $15,671.61 $-189.42
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:35am ET $188.78 83 $15,668.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:00am ET $193.20 83 $16,035.60 $16,038.47 +$366.86
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
30 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:05am ET $189.30 84 $15,901.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $193.60 84 $16,262.40 $16,399.67 +$361.20
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
31 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:00am ET $191.07 85 $16,240.53 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 10:00am ET $187.35 85 $15,924.33 $16,083.47 $-316.20
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
32 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:45am ET $192.71 83 $15,994.93 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 11:45am ET $191.85 83 $15,923.96 $16,012.50 $-70.97
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
33 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 12:00pm ET $191.26 83 $15,874.99 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 10:30am ET $195.16 83 $16,198.28 $16,335.79 +$323.29
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
34 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 10:30am ET $199.19 82 $16,333.58 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $203.27 82 $16,668.14 $16,670.35 +$334.56
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
35 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:40am ET $199.24 83 $16,537.27 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 11:05am ET $203.41 83 $16,883.44 $17,016.53 +$346.18
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
36 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 11:25am ET $207.64 81 $16,818.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $212.00 81 $17,172.17 $17,369.86 +$353.33
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
37 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $215.01 80 $17,200.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $214.24 80 $17,139.20 $17,308.26 $-61.60
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.7d held
38 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $209.04 82 $17,141.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $215.79 82 $17,694.78 $17,861.76 +$553.50
(+3.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:05pm ET $219.96 81 $17,816.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET $224.54 81 $18,187.34 $18,232.74 +$370.98
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 10:10am ET $228.36 79 $18,040.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 10:10am ET $226.97 79 $17,930.63 $18,122.93 $-109.81
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:50am ET $222.73 81 $18,041.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $216.04 81 $17,499.04 $17,580.84 $-542.09
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
42 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:50am ET $222.73 81 $18,041.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $216.85 81 $17,564.85 $17,104.56 $-476.28
(-2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
43 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET $220.34 77 $16,965.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $222.04 77 $17,096.70 $17,235.46 +$130.90
(+0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
44 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 10:25am ET $230.50 74 $17,057.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET $221.83 74 $16,415.42 $16,593.61 $-641.85
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
45 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $217.14 76 $16,502.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 3:10pm ET $210.61 76 $16,006.36 $16,097.33 $-496.28
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
46 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 3:10pm ET $215.10 74 $15,917.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 12:30pm ET $219.56 74 $16,247.44 $16,427.37 +$330.04
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 1:35pm ET $214.80 76 $16,324.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 1:35pm ET $211.98 76 $16,110.48 $16,213.05 $-214.32
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET $220.34 77 $16,965.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $206.50 77 $15,900.50 $15,147.75 $-1,065.30
(-6.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23d held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $208.97 72 $15,045.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $213.65 72 $15,382.44 $15,484.35 +$336.60
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
50 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 11:20am ET $217.66 71 $15,454.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 11:20am ET $217.26 71 $15,425.81 $15,455.95 $-28.40
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
51 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 2:10pm ET $215.64 71 $15,310.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 10:30am ET $220.19 71 $15,633.49 $15,779.00 +$323.05
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held
52 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 10:40am ET $221.37 71 $15,717.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 10:40am ET $216.61 71 $15,379.31 $15,441.04 $-337.96
(-2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
53 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET $214.36 72 $15,433.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 3:30pm ET $207.89 72 $14,968.08 $14,975.20 $-465.84
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
54 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $213.88 70 $14,971.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:40pm ET $214.09 70 $14,986.12 $14,990.07 +$14.87
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:30am ET $216.24 69 $14,920.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 11:30am ET $213.14 69 $14,706.66 $14,776.17 $-213.90
(-1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
56 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $216.76 68 $14,739.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 12:10pm ET $217.57 68 $14,794.42 $14,830.91 +$54.74
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
57 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $216.00 68 $14,688.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:50am ET $209.21 68 $14,226.28 $14,369.19 $-461.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
58 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $202.49 70 $14,174.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $207.07 70 $14,494.90 $14,689.79 +$320.60
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
59 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:45am ET $201.14 73 $14,683.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $205.55 73 $15,005.15 $15,011.72 +$321.93
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
60 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $204.38 73 $14,919.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $198.17 73 $14,466.41 $14,558.39 $-453.33
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,558.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,558.39
Total Return: +45.58%
Back to Rebel Contraire