Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:05:57

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.5/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 33.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 33.1

30-Day Momentum

12
+0.4%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.4 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,059
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,849.82
Current Value
$13,571.90
Period P&L
$-277.89
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
62
Winners / Losers
35 / 27
Best Trade
+9.74%
Worst Trade
-10.07%
Avg Trade Return
+0.01%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,530,514.41
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-277.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-277.89
Gross Return
-2.01%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.01%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 62 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,849.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 3:45pm ET $471.33 29 $13,668.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $482.77 29 $14,000.33 $14,181.55 +$331.76
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $480.91 29 $13,946.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $474.49 29 $13,760.21 $13,995.26 $-186.29
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET $464.21 30 $13,926.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $451.40 30 $13,541.85 $13,610.96 $-384.30
(-2.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 9:40am ET $449.35 30 $13,480.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET $459.67 30 $13,789.95 $13,920.41 +$309.45
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 1:40pm ET $472.77 29 $13,710.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 1:55pm ET $482.70 29 $13,998.30 $14,208.52 +$288.12
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 2:30pm ET $480.39 29 $13,931.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $432.00 29 $12,528.00 $12,805.21 $-1,403.31
(-10.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:25am ET $432.88 29 $12,553.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $416.55 29 $12,080.09 $12,331.93 $-473.28
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET $410.52 30 $12,315.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $398.15 30 $11,944.50 $11,960.84 $-371.10
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:15pm ET $399.69 29 $11,591.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET $408.50 29 $11,846.50 $12,216.33 +$255.49
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:20am ET $420.25 29 $12,187.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $420.29 29 $12,188.41 $12,217.49 +$1.16
(+0.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
2.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET $396.91 30 $11,907.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $394.75 30 $11,842.50 $12,152.69 $-64.80
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET $384.59 31 $11,922.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET $392.96 31 $12,181.76 $12,412.16 +$259.47
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET $401.48 30 $12,044.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET $393.65 30 $11,809.65 $12,177.41 $-234.75
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 11:55am ET $405.69 30 $12,170.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $407.11 30 $12,213.30 $12,220.01 +$42.60
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $404.72 30 $12,141.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $397.66 30 $11,929.80 $12,008.21 $-211.80
(-1.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:10am ET $400.92 29 $11,626.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:25am ET $388.69 29 $11,272.01 $11,653.54 $-354.67
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:40am ET $384.34 30 $11,530.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $372.72 30 $11,181.60 $11,304.94 $-348.60
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 12:50pm ET $370.96 30 $11,128.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $359.58 30 $10,787.40 $10,963.39 $-341.55
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:05am ET $360.23 30 $10,806.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET $367.89 30 $11,036.85 $11,193.49 +$230.10
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $370.70 30 $11,121.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 2:00pm ET $371.66 30 $11,149.80 $11,222.29 +$28.80
(+0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $369.57 30 $11,086.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $384.69 30 $11,540.70 $11,676.04 +$453.75
(+4.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:40am ET $368.73 31 $11,430.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET $377.73 31 $11,709.78 $11,955.19 +$279.15
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 11:00am ET $391.62 30 $11,748.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $400.89 30 $12,026.70 $12,233.29 +$278.10
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET $414.36 29 $12,016.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $424.78 29 $12,318.62 $12,535.61 +$302.32
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:20am ET $419.52 29 $12,166.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET $428.24 29 $12,418.96 $12,788.49 +$252.88
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:45am ET $420.27 30 $12,608.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET $423.65 30 $12,709.65 $12,889.89 +$101.40
(+0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET $424.58 30 $12,737.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $410.24 30 $12,307.20 $12,459.69 $-430.20
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
28 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 10:00am ET $412.13 30 $12,363.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 10:00am ET $410.40 30 $12,311.94 $12,407.73 $-51.96
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
29 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:20am ET $423.89 29 $12,292.81 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $407.79 29 $11,825.77 $11,940.68 $-467.05
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
30 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 11:25am ET $408.20 29 $11,837.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:40am ET $417.72 29 $12,113.88 $12,216.76 +$276.08
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
31 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:10am ET $421.61 28 $11,805.22 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:55am ET $430.24 28 $12,046.86 $12,458.40 +$241.64
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
32 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 10:00am ET $412.80 30 $12,384.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 3:45pm ET $421.34 30 $12,640.20 $12,714.60 +$256.20
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held
33 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:00am ET $420.21 30 $12,606.45 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:00am ET $411.40 30 $12,342.00 $12,450.15 $-264.45
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
34 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 10:35am ET $423.42 29 $12,279.18 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $433.16 29 $12,561.64 $12,732.61 +$282.46
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held
35 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:10am ET $461.89 27 $12,470.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $446.97 27 $12,068.19 $12,329.90 $-402.71
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
36 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET $432.18 28 $12,101.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $418.74 28 $11,724.77 $11,953.63 $-376.27
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
37 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $409.36 29 $11,871.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $394.54 29 $11,441.66 $11,523.85 $-429.78
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
38 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 10:20am ET $384.04 30 $11,521.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $396.85 30 $11,905.50 $11,908.30 +$384.45
(+3.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:15am ET $393.41 30 $11,802.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $381.09 30 $11,432.70 $11,538.70 $-369.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 3:40pm ET $377.77 30 $11,333.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 3:40pm ET $373.58 30 $11,207.40 $11,412.85 $-125.85
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $362.57 31 $11,239.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 12:45pm ET $351.68 31 $10,902.08 $11,075.31 $-337.54
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
42 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:15pm ET $369.79 29 $10,723.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $378.28 29 $10,970.12 $11,321.52 +$246.21
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
43 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:55am ET $369.73 30 $11,091.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET $378.45 30 $11,353.50 $11,583.12 +$261.60
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held
44 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET $385.96 30 $11,578.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:20am ET $394.94 30 $11,848.20 $11,852.52 +$269.40
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
45 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 11:05am ET $382.61 30 $11,478.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 11:05am ET $390.04 30 $11,701.20 $12,075.27 +$222.75
(+1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
46 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 11:10am ET $386.08 31 $11,968.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:10am ET $394.16 31 $12,218.96 $12,325.75 +$250.48
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23h held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 12:10pm ET $399.88 30 $11,996.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 12:10pm ET $397.78 30 $11,933.40 $12,262.75 $-63.00
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 12:10pm ET $388.60 31 $12,046.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 12:10pm ET $389.99 31 $12,089.69 $12,305.84 +$43.09
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 12:30pm ET $398.10 30 $11,943.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $436.88 30 $13,106.25 $13,469.09 +$1,163.25
(+9.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $450.00 29 $13,050.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $460.38 29 $13,351.02 $13,770.11 +$301.02
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
20m held
51 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:15am ET $486.32 28 $13,616.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 10:35am ET $496.45 28 $13,900.60 $14,053.76 +$283.65
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
52 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 11:10am ET $489.82 28 $13,714.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $499.82 28 $13,994.82 $14,333.76 +$280.00
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
53 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 10:50am ET $510.40 28 $14,291.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:55am ET $493.38 28 $13,814.50 $13,857.05 $-476.71
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
54 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 10:45am ET $497.88 27 $13,442.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:30am ET $482.70 27 $13,032.90 $13,447.33 $-409.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:55am ET $481.11 27 $12,989.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $483.66 27 $13,058.79 $13,516.15 +$68.82
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
56 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:55am ET $481.11 27 $12,989.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $487.94 27 $13,174.38 $13,700.56 +$184.41
(+1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $490.90 27 $13,254.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:10am ET $501.31 27 $13,535.37 $13,981.49 +$280.93
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
35m held
58 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET $508.39 27 $13,726.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET $497.73 27 $13,438.84 $13,693.80 $-287.69
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
59 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:25pm ET $512.86 26 $13,334.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $493.04 26 $12,818.91 $13,178.35 $-515.45
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
60 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET $491.61 26 $12,781.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:00am ET $501.85 26 $13,048.10 $13,444.50 +$266.15
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
61 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:00am ET $500.93 26 $13,024.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $495.59 26 $12,885.34 $13,305.66 $-138.84
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
62 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET $497.62 26 $12,938.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:40am ET $507.86 26 $13,204.36 $13,571.90 +$266.24
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,571.90
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,571.90
Total Return: +35.72%
Back to Rebel Contraire