PANW Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
+7.02%
Year to Date Return
$16,100.01
Current Value
68%
Win Rate
$15,043.35
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
42
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.5/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality
42.6/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 41.9
30-Day Momentum
32
+3.5%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 35.6
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,675
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$15,043.35
Current Value
$16,100.01
Period P&L
$1,056.68
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
28 /
13
Best Trade
+3.37%
Worst Trade
-9.30%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,241,034.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,056.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,056.68
Gross Return
+7.02%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.02%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $15,043.35 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:35am ET | $186.18 | 81 | $15,080.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $180.19 | 81 | $14,595.35 | $14,706.25 |
$-485.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $184.76 | 79 | $14,596.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.78 | 79 | $14,992.62 | $15,102.83 |
+$396.58 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.29 | 78 | $14,920.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.59 | 78 | $14,943.63 | $15,126.23 |
+$23.40 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $189.49 | 79 | $14,969.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $193.96 | 79 | $15,322.84 | $15,479.36 |
+$353.13 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $187.89 | 82 | $15,406.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:45am ET | $182.07 | 82 | $14,929.74 | $15,002.53 |
$-476.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $183.14 | 81 | $14,834.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $185.70 | 81 | $15,041.70 | $15,209.89 |
+$207.36 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $171.58 | 88 | $15,098.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:55pm ET | $175.37 | 88 | $15,432.56 | $15,543.85 |
+$333.96 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 2:15pm ET | $177.42 | 87 | $15,435.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.01 | 87 | $14,965.30 | $15,073.61 |
$-470.24 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $160.99 | 93 | $14,972.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $164.40 | 93 | $15,289.21 | $15,390.29 |
+$316.67 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $162.02 | 94 | $15,229.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $156.07 | 94 | $14,670.58 | $14,830.99 |
$-559.30 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $158.54 | 93 | $14,744.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $161.85 | 93 | $15,052.05 | $15,138.35 |
+$307.37 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $166.18 | 91 | $15,122.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $167.37 | 91 | $15,230.67 | $15,246.61 |
+$108.25 (+0.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $163.73 | 93 | $15,226.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.51 | 93 | $13,810.97 | $13,830.69 |
$-1,415.92 (-9.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $148.88 | 92 | $13,697.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:55pm ET | $151.90 | 92 | $13,974.80 | $14,108.07 |
+$277.38 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 2:05pm ET | $152.65 | 92 | $14,044.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.64 | 92 | $13,582.88 | $13,646.69 |
$-461.38 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $144.90 | 94 | $13,620.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $140.41 | 94 | $13,199.01 | $13,225.57 |
$-421.12 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 12:45pm ET | $143.57 | 92 | $13,207.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $148.40 | 92 | $13,653.06 | $13,670.65 |
+$445.08 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $144.78 | 94 | $13,609.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $147.88 | 94 | $13,900.44 | $13,961.77 |
+$291.12 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:55pm ET | $150.51 | 92 | $13,846.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $153.77 | 92 | $14,147.30 | $14,262.61 |
+$300.84 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:00pm ET | $159.07 | 89 | $14,157.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $162.91 | 89 | $14,498.99 | $14,604.37 |
+$341.76 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $162.51 | 89 | $14,463.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $165.88 | 89 | $14,763.32 | $14,904.30 |
+$299.93 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $161.43 | 92 | $14,851.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $165.17 | 92 | $15,195.64 | $15,248.38 |
+$344.08 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $164.16 | 92 | $15,102.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $167.90 | 92 | $15,446.80 | $15,592.46 |
+$344.08 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $168.72 | 92 | $15,522.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $168.84 | 92 | $15,533.28 | $15,603.49 |
+$11.03 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $169.51 | 92 | $15,594.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $164.31 | 92 | $15,116.52 | $15,125.09 |
$-478.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $165.10 | 91 | $15,024.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $158.08 | 91 | $14,385.28 | $14,486.27 |
$-638.82 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:45am ET | $155.25 | 93 | $14,438.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $158.65 | 93 | $14,754.45 | $14,802.47 |
+$316.20 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $148.29 | 99 | $14,681.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $151.53 | 99 | $15,001.47 | $15,122.74 |
+$320.27 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET | $156.98 | 96 | $15,070.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $160.12 | 96 | $15,371.52 | $15,424.18 |
+$301.44 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:55pm ET | $160.54 | 96 | $15,411.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $161.93 | 96 | $15,545.28 | $15,557.62 |
+$133.44 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:10pm ET | $162.24 | 95 | $15,412.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:10pm ET | $165.97 | 95 | $15,766.84 | $15,911.66 |
+$354.04 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $166.80 | 95 | $15,846.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $161.76 | 95 | $15,366.73 | $15,431.91 |
$-479.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $158.60 | 97 | $15,384.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $161.79 | 97 | $15,694.11 | $15,741.82 |
+$309.91 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $160.35 | 98 | $15,714.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $164.60 | 98 | $16,130.80 | $16,158.32 |
+$416.50 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $165.11 | 97 | $16,015.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.40 | 97 | $16,528.80 | $16,671.45 |
+$513.13 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $167.46 | 99 | $16,579.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $171.67 | 99 | $16,995.63 | $17,088.04 |
+$416.59 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:35am ET | $178.65 | 95 | $16,971.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.88 | 95 | $16,423.60 | $16,540.37 |
$-547.67 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $175.51 | 94 | $16,497.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $179.37 | 94 | $16,860.78 | $16,903.21 |
+$362.84 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:20am ET | $183.62 | 92 | $16,893.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $176.91 | 92 | $16,275.72 | $16,285.89 |
$-617.32 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $178.55 | 91 | $16,248.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:50am ET | $182.40 | 91 | $16,598.85 | $16,636.24 |
+$350.35 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $185.60 | 89 | $16,518.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $179.57 | 89 | $15,982.17 | $16,100.01 |
$-536.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,100.01
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,100.01
Total Return:
+61.00%