TLT Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
-3.78%
Year to Date Return
$8,789.67
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$9,135.11
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
10.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 10.0
30-Day Momentum
3
-1.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,846
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,135.11
Current Value
$8,789.67
Period P&L
$-345.45
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
19 /
22
Best Trade
+2.84%
Worst Trade
-2.78%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
6.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$733,539.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-345.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-345.45
Gross Return
-3.78%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.78%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,135.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET | $87.72 | 104 | $9,122.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.26 | 104 | $9,074.52 | $9,135.64 |
$-48.14 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $87.16 | 104 | $9,064.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.44 | 104 | $9,093.76 | $9,164.76 |
+$29.12 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $87.66 | 104 | $9,116.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.65 | 104 | $9,011.60 | $9,059.72 |
$-105.04 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $86.63 | 104 | $9,009.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $88.37 | 104 | $9,189.96 | $9,240.68 |
+$180.96 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $88.04 | 104 | $9,155.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.04 | 104 | $9,052.16 | $9,137.20 |
$-103.48 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $86.47 | 105 | $9,079.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.14 | 105 | $9,149.70 | $9,207.55 |
+$70.35 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $88.42 | 104 | $9,195.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $88.43 | 104 | $9,197.24 | $9,209.36 |
+$1.81 (+0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
36m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $89.88 | 102 | $9,167.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $89.56 | 102 | $9,134.61 | $9,176.21 |
$-33.15 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $89.85 | 102 | $9,164.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $89.98 | 102 | $9,177.96 | $9,189.47 |
+$13.26 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $89.26 | 102 | $9,104.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.28 | 102 | $9,004.56 | $9,089.81 |
$-99.66 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $88.79 | 102 | $9,056.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.18 | 102 | $8,892.36 | $8,926.10 |
$-163.71 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $87.40 | 102 | $8,914.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.18 | 102 | $8,789.85 | $8,801.14 |
$-124.96 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.69 | 102 | $8,740.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.62 | 102 | $8,835.24 | $8,895.49 |
+$94.35 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $86.76 | 102 | $8,850.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.51 | 102 | $8,824.02 | $8,869.48 |
$-26.01 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $86.22 | 102 | $8,794.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.43 | 102 | $8,815.86 | $8,890.39 |
+$20.91 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $86.67 | 102 | $8,839.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.10 | 102 | $8,884.20 | $8,934.76 |
+$44.37 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $86.81 | 102 | $8,854.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.49 | 102 | $8,821.47 | $8,902.12 |
$-32.64 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.11 | 103 | $8,869.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.35 | 103 | $8,791.05 | $8,823.84 |
$-78.28 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $85.23 | 103 | $8,778.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.89 | 103 | $8,846.67 | $8,891.82 |
+$67.98 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $85.13 | 104 | $8,853.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.71 | 104 | $8,706.36 | $8,744.66 |
$-147.16 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.97 | 105 | $8,711.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.33 | 105 | $8,959.65 | $8,992.46 |
+$247.80 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 12:55pm ET | $85.29 | 105 | $8,955.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 12:55pm ET | $85.24 | 105 | $8,950.20 | $8,986.68 |
$-5.78 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $85.31 | 105 | $8,957.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $85.00 | 105 | $8,924.48 | $8,954.13 |
$-32.55 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $84.80 | 105 | $8,904.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.95 | 105 | $9,024.75 | $9,074.88 |
+$120.75 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $85.95 | 105 | $9,024.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.29 | 105 | $9,060.45 | $9,110.58 |
+$35.70 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $86.32 | 105 | $9,063.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.39 | 105 | $9,176.47 | $9,223.45 |
+$112.87 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $86.32 | 105 | $9,063.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.44 | 105 | $8,971.20 | $9,131.05 |
$-92.40 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $85.11 | 107 | $9,107.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.24 | 107 | $9,013.15 | $9,036.89 |
$-94.16 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $84.21 | 107 | $9,010.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.32 | 107 | $9,022.24 | $9,048.66 |
+$11.77 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $83.54 | 108 | $9,022.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.68 | 108 | $9,037.44 | $9,063.89 |
+$15.23 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $85.11 | 107 | $9,107.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $82.75 | 107 | $8,854.25 | $8,810.84 |
$-253.05 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $82.14 | 107 | $8,789.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $82.86 | 107 | $8,866.55 | $8,887.88 |
+$77.04 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $82.83 | 107 | $8,863.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $82.25 | 107 | $8,801.28 | $8,825.82 |
$-62.06 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $82.34 | 107 | $8,810.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $81.81 | 107 | $8,753.67 | $8,769.11 |
$-56.71 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:15am ET | $81.50 | 107 | $8,721.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.53 | 107 | $8,830.18 | $8,878.25 |
+$109.14 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:15am ET | $81.50 | 107 | $8,721.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.29 | 107 | $8,911.50 | $9,068.71 |
+$190.46 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $83.14 | 109 | $9,062.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $82.21 | 109 | $8,961.43 | $8,967.34 |
$-101.37 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $83.14 | 109 | $9,062.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $82.39 | 109 | $8,980.50 | $8,885.03 |
$-82.31 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $82.39 | 107 | $8,815.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $81.60 | 107 | $8,731.19 | $8,800.49 |
$-84.54 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $81.19 | 108 | $8,768.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:15pm ET | $80.67 | 108 | $8,711.82 | $8,743.79 |
$-56.70 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $81.22 | 107 | $8,691.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 2:35pm ET | $81.65 | 107 | $8,736.96 | $8,789.67 |
+$45.88 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,789.67
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,210.33
Total Return:
-12.10%