UNH Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 54 trades in period
-16.84%
Year to Date Return
$7,182.16
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$8,636.15
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.4 oversold
20d Trend
-22.6%
5d Trend
-9.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
4.9%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
9.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 9.7
30-Day Momentum
9
+0.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.3
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,600
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$8,636.15
Current Value
$7,182.16
Period P&L
$-1,454.01
Max Drawdown
-41.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
54
Winners / Losers
26 /
28
Best Trade
+9.49%
Worst Trade
-18.26%
Avg Trade Return
-0.28%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$778,219.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,454.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,454.01
Gross Return
-16.84%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.84%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 UNH Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 54 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,636.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:35am ET | $334.22 | 26 | $8,689.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $338.58 | 26 | $8,803.08 | $8,871.74 |
+$113.36 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $348.78 | 25 | $8,719.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.81 | 25 | $8,370.13 | $8,522.36 |
$-349.37 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $337.82 | 25 | $8,445.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $329.91 | 25 | $8,247.75 | $8,324.59 |
$-197.78 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:25am ET | $345.97 | 24 | $8,303.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $353.20 | 24 | $8,476.80 | $8,498.11 |
+$173.52 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $353.78 | 24 | $8,490.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $289.19 | 24 | $6,940.56 | $6,948.07 |
$-1,550.04 (-18.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $287.65 | 24 | $6,903.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $293.80 | 24 | $7,051.20 | $7,095.69 |
+$147.62 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:45pm ET | $291.87 | 24 | $7,004.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:00am ET | $282.92 | 24 | $6,790.08 | $6,880.86 |
$-214.82 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $276.01 | 24 | $6,624.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:40am ET | $267.61 | 24 | $6,422.52 | $6,679.21 |
$-201.66 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:00pm ET | $276.95 | 24 | $6,646.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $276.54 | 24 | $6,636.96 | $6,669.36 |
$-9.84 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $288.39 | 23 | $6,632.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $288.41 | 23 | $6,633.43 | $6,669.93 |
+$0.57 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $274.91 | 24 | $6,597.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $280.62 | 24 | $6,734.88 | $6,806.97 |
+$137.04 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $291.43 | 23 | $6,702.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $285.54 | 23 | $6,567.42 | $6,671.50 |
$-135.47 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:35am ET | $291.40 | 22 | $6,410.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $280.60 | 22 | $6,173.20 | $6,433.90 |
$-237.60 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $283.54 | 22 | $6,237.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.49 | 22 | $6,214.78 | $6,410.80 |
$-23.10 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $287.13 | 22 | $6,316.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:55pm ET | $278.49 | 22 | $6,126.78 | $6,220.72 |
$-190.08 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:05pm ET | $270.77 | 22 | $5,956.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $261.83 | 22 | $5,760.26 | $6,024.04 |
$-196.68 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 11:30am ET | $259.24 | 23 | $5,962.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $265.27 | 23 | $6,101.21 | $6,162.73 |
+$138.69 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $271.01 | 22 | $5,962.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $276.50 | 22 | $6,083.00 | $6,283.62 |
+$120.89 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $281.83 | 22 | $6,200.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $307.79 | 22 | $6,771.38 | $6,854.85 |
+$571.23 (+9.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $309.07 | 22 | $6,799.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $307.23 | 22 | $6,759.06 | $6,814.48 |
$-40.37 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $318.37 | 21 | $6,685.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $324.91 | 21 | $6,823.11 | $6,951.82 |
+$137.34 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $323.21 | 21 | $6,787.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $353.89 | 21 | $7,431.69 | $7,596.07 |
+$644.25 (+9.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $355.27 | 21 | $7,460.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $349.67 | 21 | $7,343.07 | $7,478.37 |
$-117.70 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $368.21 | 20 | $7,364.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $369.59 | 20 | $7,391.80 | $7,505.90 |
+$27.53 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $363.80 | 20 | $7,276.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.60 | 20 | $7,472.00 | $7,701.90 |
+$196.00 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $378.30 | 20 | $7,566.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $386.13 | 20 | $7,722.50 | $7,858.40 |
+$156.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $400.86 | 19 | $7,616.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $385.17 | 19 | $7,318.23 | $7,560.29 |
$-298.11 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $388.69 | 19 | $7,385.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $384.83 | 19 | $7,311.77 | $7,486.95 |
$-73.34 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $381.93 | 19 | $7,256.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 10:25am ET | $382.20 | 19 | $7,261.80 | $7,492.08 |
+$5.13 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $378.43 | 19 | $7,190.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $386.91 | 19 | $7,351.29 | $7,653.11 |
+$161.03 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $398.64 | 19 | $7,574.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 2:50pm ET | $406.62 | 19 | $7,725.78 | $7,804.82 |
+$151.71 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $411.46 | 18 | $7,406.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.92 | 18 | $7,216.47 | $7,615.01 |
$-189.81 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $408.14 | 18 | $7,346.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $403.03 | 18 | $7,254.54 | $7,523.03 |
$-91.98 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $405.87 | 18 | $7,305.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $414.01 | 18 | $7,452.18 | $7,669.55 |
+$146.52 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:10pm ET | $424.95 | 18 | $7,649.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 12:10pm ET | $424.73 | 18 | $7,645.14 | $7,665.59 |
$-3.96 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $405.87 | 18 | $7,305.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.84 | 18 | $7,611.12 | $7,971.05 |
+$305.46 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $422.36 | 18 | $7,602.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $431.64 | 18 | $7,769.52 | $8,138.09 |
+$167.04 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $425.42 | 19 | $8,082.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:10am ET | $420.78 | 19 | $7,994.82 | $8,049.93 |
$-88.16 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $443.27 | 18 | $7,978.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 1:20pm ET | $429.85 | 18 | $7,737.21 | $7,808.28 |
$-241.65 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:30pm ET | $427.37 | 18 | $7,692.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $436.47 | 18 | $7,856.46 | $7,972.08 |
+$163.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $426.76 | 18 | $7,681.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $413.71 | 18 | $7,446.87 | $7,737.27 |
$-234.81 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:05am ET | $418.20 | 18 | $7,527.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 12:10pm ET | $426.61 | 18 | $7,678.89 | $7,888.65 |
+$151.38 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $425.42 | 19 | $8,082.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $413.48 | 19 | $7,856.12 | $7,661.79 |
$-226.86 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $419.14 | 18 | $7,544.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $401.39 | 18 | $7,225.11 | $7,342.29 |
$-319.50 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $410.07 | 17 | $6,971.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $410.18 | 17 | $6,973.06 | $7,344.16 |
+$1.87 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $403.48 | 18 | $7,262.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $396.57 | 18 | $7,138.17 | $7,219.78 |
$-124.38 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $396.28 | 18 | $7,133.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $384.02 | 18 | $6,912.36 | $6,999.10 |
$-220.68 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $390.00 | 17 | $6,630.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $398.58 | 17 | $6,775.86 | $7,144.96 |
+$145.86 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $390.00 | 17 | $6,630.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $401.12 | 17 | $6,819.00 | $7,333.96 |
+$189.00 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $397.57 | 18 | $7,156.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $395.82 | 18 | $7,124.67 | $7,302.34 |
$-31.62 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $397.57 | 18 | $7,156.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $403.36 | 18 | $7,260.56 | $7,406.61 |
+$104.27 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $397.05 | 18 | $7,146.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $405.19 | 18 | $7,293.42 | $7,553.13 |
+$146.52 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $396.87 | 19 | $7,540.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $383.34 | 19 | $7,283.46 | $7,296.06 |
$-257.07 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $383.84 | 19 | $7,292.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $377.85 | 19 | $7,179.06 | $7,182.16 |
$-113.90 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,182.16
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,817.84
Total Return:
-28.18%