VOO Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 43 trades in period
+10.30%
Year to Date Return
$16,329.55
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$14,804.71
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
35.8 neutral
20d Trend
-2.8%
5d Trend
-2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
50%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
59
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
23.2/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
5.6/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality
59.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 59.3
30-Day Momentum
3
-0.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-56 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,785
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$14,804.71
Current Value
$16,329.55
Period P&L
$1,524.84
Max Drawdown
-9.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
24 /
19
Best Trade
+3.54%
Worst Trade
-3.28%
Avg Trade Return
+0.23%
Avg Hold Time
5.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,303,106.99
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,524.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,524.84
Gross Return
+10.30%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.30%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VOO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,804.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET | $631.91 | 23 | $14,533.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $631.84 | 23 | $14,532.40 | $14,895.64 |
$-1.41 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $634.36 | 23 | $14,590.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $636.29 | 23 | $14,634.67 | $14,940.03 |
+$44.39 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $638.62 | 23 | $14,688.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $627.78 | 23 | $14,438.94 | $14,690.72 |
$-249.30 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $629.21 | 23 | $14,471.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $637.19 | 23 | $14,655.37 | $14,874.38 |
+$183.66 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $639.67 | 23 | $14,712.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $635.71 | 23 | $14,621.23 | $14,783.31 |
$-91.07 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $637.25 | 23 | $14,656.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $634.49 | 23 | $14,593.27 | $14,719.83 |
$-63.48 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $638.24 | 23 | $14,679.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $639.24 | 23 | $14,702.52 | $14,742.84 |
+$23.00 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $625.43 | 23 | $14,384.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $633.24 | 23 | $14,564.52 | $14,922.47 |
+$179.63 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $627.92 | 23 | $14,442.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $624.21 | 23 | $14,356.83 | $14,837.14 |
$-85.33 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $620.10 | 23 | $14,262.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $613.41 | 23 | $14,108.43 | $14,683.29 |
$-153.85 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $622.85 | 23 | $14,325.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $614.35 | 23 | $14,130.05 | $14,487.79 |
$-195.50 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $619.58 | 23 | $14,250.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $600.97 | 23 | $13,822.31 | $14,059.76 |
$-428.03 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:15am ET | $610.41 | 23 | $14,039.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $590.37 | 23 | $13,578.51 | $13,598.95 |
$-460.81 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $584.57 | 23 | $13,445.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:55pm ET | $596.44 | 23 | $13,718.12 | $13,872.08 |
+$273.13 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $601.48 | 23 | $13,834.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $605.22 | 23 | $13,919.95 | $13,957.99 |
+$85.91 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $601.03 | 23 | $13,823.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $622.28 | 23 | $14,312.33 | $14,446.74 |
+$488.75 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $620.29 | 23 | $14,266.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $633.12 | 23 | $14,561.66 | $14,741.73 |
+$294.99 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 11:55am ET | $640.97 | 22 | $14,101.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $653.81 | 22 | $14,383.71 | $15,024.21 |
+$282.48 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:50am ET | $650.25 | 23 | $14,955.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $655.71 | 23 | $15,081.30 | $15,149.76 |
+$125.55 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $653.91 | 23 | $15,039.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $662.04 | 23 | $15,226.92 | $15,336.75 |
+$186.99 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $664.38 | 23 | $15,280.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $677.85 | 23 | $15,590.55 | $15,646.65 |
+$309.90 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:35am ET | $678.86 | 23 | $15,613.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $679.95 | 23 | $15,638.78 | $15,671.53 |
+$24.88 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $674.84 | 23 | $15,521.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $689.91 | 23 | $15,867.93 | $16,018.14 |
+$346.61 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $689.03 | 23 | $15,847.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $698.46 | 23 | $16,064.58 | $16,234.92 |
+$216.78 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $696.81 | 23 | $16,026.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $682.14 | 23 | $15,689.22 | $15,897.51 |
$-337.41 (-2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $684.25 | 23 | $15,737.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $691.50 | 23 | $15,904.50 | $16,064.26 |
+$166.75 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $692.12 | 23 | $15,918.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $689.21 | 23 | $15,851.77 | $15,997.28 |
$-66.98 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $676.22 | 23 | $15,553.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $678.99 | 23 | $15,616.77 | $16,060.99 |
+$63.71 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $676.22 | 23 | $15,553.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $687.94 | 23 | $15,822.62 | $16,330.55 |
+$269.56 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $688.30 | 23 | $15,831.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $692.53 | 23 | $15,928.30 | $16,427.84 |
+$97.29 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $690.16 | 23 | $15,873.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $687.50 | 23 | $15,812.50 | $16,366.66 |
$-61.18 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $687.14 | 23 | $15,804.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $684.43 | 23 | $15,742.00 | $16,304.44 |
$-62.22 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $688.30 | 23 | $15,831.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $675.86 | 23 | $15,544.78 | $16,018.20 |
$-286.24 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $682.09 | 23 | $15,688.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 1:25pm ET | $695.82 | 23 | $16,003.86 | $16,333.99 |
+$315.79 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $709.08 | 23 | $16,308.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $710.56 | 23 | $16,342.82 | $16,367.97 |
+$33.98 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $710.92 | 23 | $16,351.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $713.94 | 23 | $16,420.62 | $16,437.43 |
+$69.46 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $705.93 | 23 | $16,236.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $701.79 | 23 | $16,141.28 | $16,342.32 |
$-95.11 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $705.93 | 23 | $16,236.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $703.32 | 23 | $16,176.36 | $16,282.29 |
$-60.03 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $707.96 | 22 | $15,575.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $701.92 | 22 | $15,442.24 | $16,149.41 |
$-132.88 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $707.96 | 22 | $15,575.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $710.21 | 22 | $15,624.62 | $16,198.91 |
+$49.50 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $707.85 | 22 | $15,572.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 1:25pm ET | $701.51 | 22 | $15,433.22 | $16,059.43 |
$-139.48 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $697.29 | 23 | $16,037.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $695.67 | 23 | $16,000.52 | $16,022.29 |
$-37.14 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $698.16 | 22 | $15,359.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $712.13 | 22 | $15,666.86 | $16,329.55 |
+$307.26 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,329.55
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,329.55
Total Return:
+63.30%