VTI Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 43 trades in period
+6.74%
Year to Date Return
$15,211.22
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$14,250.15
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026
51
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
17.4/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
4.3/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality
51.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 50.8
30-Day Momentum
3
-1.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-48 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,514
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$14,250.15
Current Value
$15,211.22
Period P&L
$961.09
Max Drawdown
-10.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
24 /
19
Best Trade
+3.10%
Worst Trade
-3.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
5.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,244,353.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$961.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$961.09
Gross Return
+6.74%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.74%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,250.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET | $338.11 | 42 | $14,200.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $338.21 | 42 | $14,204.82 | $14,353.88 |
+$4.41 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $339.74 | 42 | $14,269.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $341.22 | 42 | $14,331.24 | $14,416.04 |
+$62.16 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $342.90 | 42 | $14,401.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.46 | 42 | $14,173.32 | $14,187.56 |
$-228.48 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $338.48 | 41 | $13,877.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $342.06 | 41 | $14,024.46 | $14,334.34 |
+$146.78 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:50am ET | $343.52 | 41 | $14,084.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.36 | 41 | $13,954.96 | $14,204.80 |
$-129.54 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $341.52 | 41 | $14,002.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.48 | 41 | $13,959.68 | $14,161.95 |
$-42.84 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $342.57 | 41 | $14,045.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $343.26 | 41 | $14,073.65 | $14,190.05 |
+$28.10 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $335.88 | 42 | $14,106.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $339.73 | 42 | $14,268.66 | $14,351.75 |
+$161.70 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $336.92 | 42 | $14,150.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $335.24 | 42 | $14,080.08 | $14,281.19 |
$-70.56 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $332.69 | 42 | $13,972.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $328.35 | 42 | $13,790.75 | $14,098.96 |
$-182.23 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $333.73 | 42 | $14,016.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $329.15 | 42 | $13,824.30 | $13,906.60 |
$-192.36 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $332.02 | 41 | $13,612.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $321.96 | 41 | $13,200.36 | $13,494.14 |
$-412.46 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:20pm ET | $325.35 | 41 | $13,339.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $315.31 | 41 | $12,927.71 | $13,082.57 |
$-411.57 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $313.19 | 41 | $12,840.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:05pm ET | $319.58 | 41 | $13,102.98 | $13,344.77 |
+$262.20 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:35pm ET | $324.77 | 41 | $13,315.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:35pm ET | $324.59 | 41 | $13,308.19 | $13,337.39 |
$-7.38 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:05pm ET | $324.20 | 41 | $13,292.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.23 | 41 | $13,703.52 | $13,748.92 |
+$411.53 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $333.01 | 41 | $13,653.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $339.80 | 41 | $13,932.00 | $14,027.51 |
+$278.59 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $343.74 | 40 | $13,749.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $350.86 | 40 | $14,034.20 | $14,311.91 |
+$284.40 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $349.96 | 40 | $13,998.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $351.85 | 40 | $14,074.00 | $14,387.35 |
+$75.44 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $350.78 | 41 | $14,381.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.02 | 41 | $14,555.62 | $14,560.99 |
+$173.64 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $356.31 | 40 | $14,252.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $362.69 | 40 | $14,507.60 | $14,816.19 |
+$255.20 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $361.57 | 40 | $14,462.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $363.11 | 40 | $14,524.40 | $14,877.80 |
+$61.61 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $360.29 | 41 | $14,771.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $367.69 | 41 | $15,075.29 | $15,181.20 |
+$303.40 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $369.97 | 41 | $15,168.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.06 | 41 | $15,254.36 | $15,266.79 |
+$85.59 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $373.04 | 40 | $14,921.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $366.64 | 40 | $14,665.40 | $15,010.59 |
$-256.20 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $367.39 | 40 | $14,695.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.61 | 40 | $14,864.40 | $15,179.39 |
+$168.80 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $371.63 | 40 | $14,865.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.33 | 40 | $14,813.00 | $15,127.19 |
$-52.20 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $363.57 | 41 | $14,906.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $365.97 | 41 | $15,004.77 | $15,225.59 |
+$98.40 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $363.57 | 41 | $14,906.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.69 | 41 | $15,198.29 | $15,517.51 |
+$291.92 (+2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.30 | 41 | $15,223.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.04 | 41 | $15,253.44 | $15,547.65 |
+$30.14 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $370.76 | 41 | $15,200.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $369.25 | 41 | $15,139.25 | $15,485.94 |
$-61.71 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 12:45pm ET | $369.58 | 41 | $15,152.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $367.78 | 41 | $15,078.98 | $15,412.14 |
$-73.80 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.30 | 41 | $15,223.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $363.20 | 41 | $14,891.00 | $15,079.84 |
$-332.30 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $366.31 | 41 | $15,018.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $373.71 | 41 | $15,322.11 | $15,383.24 |
+$303.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $380.85 | 40 | $15,234.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.64 | 40 | $15,265.60 | $15,414.84 |
+$31.60 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $382.02 | 40 | $15,280.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $383.83 | 40 | $15,353.25 | $15,487.29 |
+$72.45 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $379.75 | 40 | $15,190.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $377.20 | 40 | $15,088.00 | $15,385.29 |
$-102.00 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $379.75 | 40 | $15,190.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $377.73 | 40 | $15,109.00 | $15,304.29 |
$-81.00 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $380.20 | 40 | $15,208.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $376.26 | 40 | $15,050.40 | $15,146.69 |
$-157.60 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $380.20 | 40 | $15,208.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $380.63 | 40 | $15,225.20 | $15,163.89 |
+$17.20 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:00pm ET | $379.97 | 39 | $14,818.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $375.75 | 39 | $14,654.25 | $14,999.31 |
$-164.58 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $373.65 | 40 | $14,946.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $372.62 | 40 | $14,904.80 | $14,958.11 |
$-41.20 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $374.03 | 39 | $14,587.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $380.52 | 39 | $14,840.28 | $15,211.22 |
+$253.11 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,211.22
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,211.22
Total Return:
+52.11%