XLF Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 46 trades in period
+13.53%
Year to Date Return
$15,261.85
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$13,442.83
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
41
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
10.4/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
3.8/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
41.6/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 41.3
30-Day Momentum
3
-1.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-38 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,043
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$13,442.83
Current Value
$15,261.85
Period P&L
$1,819.00
Max Drawdown
-17.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
25 /
21
Best Trade
+4.12%
Worst Trade
-3.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.29%
Avg Hold Time
5.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,287,286.57
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,819.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,819.00
Gross Return
+13.53%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.53%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,442.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $54.66 | 245 | $13,390.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $55.76 | 245 | $13,661.20 | $13,713.58 |
+$270.72 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $56.32 | 243 | $13,685.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.86 | 243 | $13,329.77 | $13,357.58 |
$-356.00 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.82 | 243 | $13,321.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.73 | 243 | $13,055.18 | $13,091.50 |
$-266.09 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:55am ET | $53.59 | 244 | $13,075.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $53.29 | 244 | $13,002.76 | $13,018.30 |
$-73.20 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $52.94 | 245 | $12,969.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.59 | 245 | $13,129.55 | $13,178.77 |
+$160.48 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $53.83 | 244 | $13,135.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.24 | 244 | $13,235.78 | $13,278.81 |
+$100.04 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $53.88 | 246 | $13,255.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $53.69 | 246 | $13,206.51 | $13,229.61 |
$-49.20 (-0.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.06 | 254 | $13,221.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.25 | 254 | $13,271.50 | $13,279.14 |
+$49.53 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $50.47 | 263 | $13,273.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $51.51 | 263 | $13,548.44 | $13,553.97 |
+$274.83 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:40am ET | $52.27 | 259 | $13,537.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.69 | 259 | $13,127.42 | $13,143.46 |
$-410.51 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.35 | 261 | $13,141.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $51.38 | 261 | $13,408.88 | $13,410.99 |
+$267.53 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $51.49 | 260 | $13,388.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $49.90 | 260 | $12,974.75 | $12,997.56 |
$-413.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $49.69 | 261 | $12,967.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.32 | 261 | $12,872.52 | $12,902.29 |
$-95.27 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.74 | 259 | $12,881.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.80 | 259 | $12,898.20 | $12,919.12 |
+$16.83 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.87 | 264 | $12,901.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.87 | 264 | $13,165.68 | $13,183.12 |
+$264.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.17 | 268 | $13,178.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.62 | 268 | $13,030.16 | $13,034.38 |
$-148.74 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $49.19 | 264 | $12,986.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $49.67 | 264 | $13,111.56 | $13,159.78 |
+$125.40 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $49.82 | 264 | $13,152.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.24 | 264 | $13,527.33 | $13,534.66 |
+$374.88 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $50.92 | 265 | $13,492.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.67 | 265 | $13,691.23 | $13,733.41 |
+$198.75 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.99 | 264 | $13,724.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $52.69 | 264 | $13,908.84 | $13,918.21 |
+$184.80 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $52.85 | 263 | $13,899.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.38 | 263 | $13,512.94 | $13,531.57 |
$-386.64 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $52.15 | 259 | $13,506.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.72 | 259 | $13,395.48 | $13,420.20 |
$-111.37 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.41 | 261 | $13,418.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.31 | 261 | $13,391.91 | $13,394.10 |
$-26.10 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $51.26 | 261 | $13,378.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.12 | 261 | $13,342.32 | $13,357.56 |
$-36.54 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $51.44 | 259 | $13,322.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.02 | 259 | $13,473.18 | $13,507.78 |
+$150.22 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.80 | 260 | $13,468.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.27 | 260 | $13,330.20 | $13,369.98 |
$-137.80 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.37 | 260 | $13,354.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.40 | 260 | $13,624.00 | $13,639.08 |
+$269.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.28 | 260 | $13,591.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $53.42 | 260 | $13,887.90 | $13,935.48 |
+$296.40 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 1:40pm ET | $53.87 | 258 | $13,898.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.63 | 258 | $13,835.25 | $13,872.27 |
$-63.21 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.56 | 259 | $13,870.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:20am ET | $54.65 | 259 | $14,154.35 | $14,155.88 |
+$283.61 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 10:45am ET | $53.54 | 264 | $14,134.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:45am ET | $54.54 | 264 | $14,398.56 | $14,419.88 |
+$264.00 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.56 | 259 | $13,870.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.76 | 259 | $14,441.84 | $14,990.97 |
+$571.09 (+4.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $56.36 | 265 | $14,935.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.11 | 265 | $14,869.23 | $14,924.80 |
$-66.17 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $56.63 | 263 | $14,892.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.24 | 263 | $14,792.43 | $14,824.86 |
$-99.94 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $55.84 | 265 | $14,797.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.92 | 265 | $15,082.48 | $15,109.73 |
+$284.88 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $56.36 | 265 | $14,935.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.58 | 265 | $14,993.70 | $15,168.03 |
+$58.30 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $56.77 | 267 | $15,157.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $57.93 | 267 | $15,466.08 | $15,476.68 |
+$308.65 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $57.97 | 266 | $15,420.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $57.96 | 266 | $15,417.33 | $15,473.99 |
$-2.69 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $57.94 | 267 | $15,471.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.08 | 267 | $15,507.36 | $15,510.04 |
+$36.05 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $57.80 | 268 | $15,490.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.94 | 268 | $15,527.92 | $15,547.56 |
+$37.52 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $57.80 | 268 | $15,490.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.26 | 268 | $15,613.68 | $15,670.84 |
+$123.28 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.83 | 270 | $15,615.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.58 | 270 | $15,547.95 | $15,603.34 |
$-67.50 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.83 | 270 | $15,615.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $58.36 | 270 | $15,757.20 | $15,745.09 |
+$141.75 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $58.17 | 270 | $15,707.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $57.15 | 270 | $15,429.53 | $15,467.37 |
$-277.72 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $56.86 | 272 | $15,464.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $56.58 | 272 | $15,388.40 | $15,391.05 |
$-76.32 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $56.41 | 272 | $15,343.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 12:50pm ET | $55.94 | 272 | $15,214.32 | $15,261.85 |
$-129.20 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,261.85
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,261.85
Total Return:
+52.62%