Compendium › Surge › ARM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARM
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-25 to present • 4 trades in period

+29.25%
Last Month Return
$12,885.81
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,969.66
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-25 18:36:58

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.8
Active
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 25, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.6/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 23.3/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 22.6

30-Day Momentum

52
+35.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
3.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 85.0 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,969.66
Current Value
$12,885.81
Period P&L
$2,916.15
Max Drawdown
-34.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.58

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+24.42%
Worst Trade
-5.04%
Avg Trade Return
+7.41%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$96,529.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,916.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,916.15
Gross Return
+29.25%
Net Return (after fees)
+29.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,969.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $317.99 31 $9,857.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $395.64 31 $12,264.84 $12,376.81 +$2,407.15
(+24.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $354.78 34 $12,062.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET $336.98 34 $11,457.49 $11,771.78 $-605.03
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $353.54 33 $11,666.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 1:25pm ET $407.48 33 $13,446.68 $13,551.63 +$1,779.85
(+15.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $367.21 36 $13,219.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $348.71 36 $12,553.74 $12,885.81 $-665.82
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,885.81
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,885.81
Total Return: +28.86%
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