Compendium › Surge › ARM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARM
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 3 trades in period

+2.11%
Last Month Return
$9,612.96
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$9,414.38
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:19:03

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

6
+2.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.2 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,414.38
Current Value
$9,612.96
Period P&L
$198.58
Max Drawdown
-34.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+15.10%
Worst Trade
-5.87%
Avg Trade Return
+1.19%
Avg Hold Time
7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$53,051.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$198.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$198.58
Gross Return
+2.11%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,414.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $245.73 38 $9,337.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $231.30 38 $8,789.40 $8,866.04 $-548.34
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $252.35 35 $8,832.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:05am ET $238.07 35 $8,332.45 $8,366.24 $-499.80
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $258.01 32 $8,256.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $296.97 32 $9,503.04 $9,612.96 +$1,246.72
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,612.96
Net Profit/Loss: $-387.04
Total Return: -3.87%
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