Compendium › Surge › ORCL
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ORCL
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-15.12%
Last Month Return
$11,649.18
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$13,723.65
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:27:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.5/35
Total Return
10.3/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 18.7/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 17.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-15.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,723.65
Current Value
$11,649.18
Period P&L
$-2,074.47
Max Drawdown
-23.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-12.45

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
0 / 3
Best Trade
-5.04%
Worst Trade
-5.96%
Avg Trade Return
-5.35%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$75,435.99
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,074.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,074.47
Gross Return
-15.12%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.12%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $13,723.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $152.48 90 $13,723.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $144.79 90 $13,031.10 $13,031.55 $-692.10
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $167.75 77 $12,916.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $157.75 77 $12,146.75 $12,261.55 $-770.00
(-6.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $163.72 74 $12,115.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:05am ET $155.44 74 $11,502.91 $11,649.18 $-612.37
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,649.18
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,649.18
Total Return: +16.49%
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