Compendium › Surge › USO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
USO
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-25 to present • 2 trades in period

-5.53%
Last Month Return
$9,011.57
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$9,539.07
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-25 18:41:37

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.8
Active
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 25, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 5.2/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 5.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,539.07
Current Value
$9,011.57
Period P&L
$-527.50
Max Drawdown
-35.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-101.31

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
0 / 2
Best Trade
-5.24%
Worst Trade
-5.34%
Avg Trade Return
-5.29%
Avg Hold Time
11.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$37,770.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-527.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$-527.50
Gross Return
-5.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,539.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $143.61 69 $9,909.09 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $136.09 69 $9,390.21 $9,518.37 $-518.88
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $135.56 70 $9,489.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:10pm ET $128.32 70 $8,982.40 $9,011.57 $-506.80
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,011.57
Net Profit/Loss: $-988.43
Total Return: -9.88%
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