Compendium › Surge › USO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
USO
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 3 trades in period

+3.54%
Last Month Return
$11,307.15
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$10,920.60
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:02:27

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
9.5/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 17.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 16.8

30-Day Momentum

8
+2.5%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.5 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,920.60
Current Value
$11,307.15
Period P&L
$386.55
Max Drawdown
-35.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+15.54%
Worst Trade
-6.63%
Avg Trade Return
+1.28%
Avg Hold Time
7.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$66,916.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$386.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$386.55
Gross Return
+3.54%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.54%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,920.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $134.80 81 $10,918.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET $127.96 81 $10,364.76 $10,476.72 $-554.04
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $133.89 78 $10,443.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $154.70 78 $12,066.60 $12,099.90 +$1,623.18
(+15.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $159.44 75 $11,958.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $148.87 75 $11,165.25 $11,307.15 $-792.75
(-6.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,307.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,307.15
Total Return: +13.07%
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